Hello Hello Mr. Bowden, Can You Spare An Outfielder?
by James Kannengieser on Feb 12, 2009 12:16 AM EST
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PrintWhat former Detroit Lions GM Matt Millen was to wide receivers, Washington Nationals GM Jim Bowden is to corner outfielders. After signing Adam Dunn to a 2-year, $20 million contract, the Nationals have seven capable outfielders at their disposal. Nutjob Elijah Dukes, slick fielding Willie Harris, steady Austin Kearns, old friend Lastings Milledge, talented but inconsistent Wily Mo Pena, and new arrival Josh Willingham are the other six. Is it possible Bowden would ship one of these players, five of whom are right-handed bats, to the division “rival” Mets?
Before taking a look at each of these players, I e-mailed Ed Chigliak at Federal Baseball to get some insight about the Nationals’ plan to find playing time for their battalion of outfielders. Ed said that Dunn will be playing first base, according to Bill Ladson at MLB.com, meaning OBP-machine Nick Johnson is likely on the trading block. Willingham is slotted in at leftfield, centerfield will be either Milledge or Dukes, and rightfield will be manned by Milledge, Kearns, or Dukes. Harris will be used in a utility role, and Pena is unlikely to make the team. Keeping in mind the Nationals were formerly the Expos, and therefore indirectly meet Omar Minaya’s roster building requirements, here’s a brief profile of the six potentially available outfielders. Projected 2009 stats are from the various projection systems and Beyond the Boxscore’s community WAR project spreadsheet.
Elijah Dukes
2008 - .264/.386/.478, 2.9 WAR
Projected 2009 – .260/.370/.460, 2.5 WAR
The talented but colorful Dukes seems poised for big things in his career, if he can control his emotions. He’s just 24 years old, can mash, and is a capable fielder according to UZR and +/-. It sounds strange to call Dukes “untouchable”, but he likely is. Plus his behavior at Shea Stadium in September showed that maybe he wouldn’t be too happy about playing for the Mets. Then again, Dukes hasn’t seemed happy no matter where he’s played.
Willie Harris
2008 - .251/.344/.417, 3.2 WAR
Projected 2009 - .255/.340/.390, 1.5 WAR
Most of Harris’s value comes from his defense, but he’s improved his hitting over the last two seasons. Think Endy Chavez, but with a bat and the ability to play the infield if need be. BtB deemed Harris the sixth most valuable leftfielder in baseball in 2008, so he’s a steal at $1.5 million a year through 2010.
Austin Kearns
2008 - .217/.311/.316, 0.6 WAR
Projected 2009 - .253/.348/.420, 1.6 WAR
It doesn’t seem like it, but Kearns is a strong defensive outfielder. His career UZR/150 is 8.3, and he’s been +27 over the last three seasons according to +/-. Additionally, his poor 2008 at the plate doesn’t look so bad considering his .251 BABIP, compared to .305 for his career, and a 21.1% line-drive %, which was better than his career %. Kearns is still just 28, so a bounce back career at the plate is not out of the question.
Lastings Milledge
2008 - .268/.330/.402, 0.4 WAR
Projected 2009 - .275/.345/.430, 1.4 WAR
Ah yes, Blastings Thrilledge. I expect an explosion of “LET’S GET MILLEDGE” posts from Mets bloggers in the coming days, similar to the wave of “LET’S GET MANNY” posts. I’d welcome him back to Flushing, but based on how he departed and what’s gone on over the last year it seems implausible.
Wily Mo Pena
2008 - .205/.243/.267, -1.0 WAR
Projected 2009 - .255/.315/.420, 0.0 WAR
Pena is a physical monster, measuring 6’3” and 270 lbs. Not surprisingly, he is an awful fielder and his performance at the plate is not good enough to compensate. He is a free-swinger, evidenced by his career walk rate of 6.3%. To his credit he has some power, posting an ISO of .194. If he can be had for a low-level prospect it’s worth a shot, but giving up anything more than that would be foolish.
Josh Willingham
2008 - .254/.364/.470, 2.3 WAR
Projected 2009 - .260/.360/.460, 1.5 WAR
The underrated Willingham was plagued by back injuries in 2008, but should be ready to go by opening day. He is a poor defender, but has been a good enough hitter to earn the nickname “The Hammer.” Imagine him platooning with “The Irish Hammer?” Willingham’s affordable contract means he probably isn’t going anywhere, and has the starting job locked up in leftfield for the Nats.
Which players can the Mets trade?
The Nationals could use some depth at catcher, so perhaps Ramon Castro and a prospect would be a starting point. They’re also pitching starved. While Jon Niese and Bobby Parnell are probably unavailable, maybe Eddie Kunz, Michael Antonini or another similar pitcher would interest the Nats. Keep in mind the surplus of outfielders means Bowden is selling low.
Prediction
Omar stands pat, content with a platoon of Fernando Tatis and Daniel Murphy in leftfield. It won’t be because of fear of trading within the division (see Milledge for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider). I’d love to see Willingham or Harris on the Mets, but given their cheap contracts and value it’s unlikely even Bowden would give them up. Kearns is enticing, but the $8 million he’s owed in 2009 is troublesome. In 2010 he has a $10 million team option or $1 million buyout. He might be worth a gamble if the payroll allows it. Murphy earned a chance to at least platoon in the big leagues after his strong showing in 2008, and a trade for a corner outfielder would almost certainly mean he starts the season in AAA Buffalo.
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Of the six, I think Bowden is mostly likely to keep Milledge and Willingham. The former is possibly the best of their young outfielders, and Willingham is the most recently acquired. Dukes probably has too much baggage for most teams to acquire (at least in proportion to his production). Kearns makes too much to trade in this market; and I think the Nats realize how valuable Harris’ glove is. If they move anyone, I think the most likely choice is Wily Mo. That said, I don’t really think they’ll move anyone. Dunn will play a lot of 1B, where Nick Johnson is always a serious injury risk. Harris’ ability to play the infield makes him very useful. I see the Nats breaking camp with Dunn, Harris, Kearns, and 3 others. I suppose time will tell who the odd man out is.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Feb 12, 2009 12:52 AM EST reply actions
Can Wily Mo play tight end?
6’3/270? Yeesh. If anything, the Giants oughta be talking to Bowden.
"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin
by dcrockett17 on Feb 12, 2009 10:38 AM EST up reply actions
Omar wants the condo not the willie
In my dreams, we trade for Willie Aybar and Willie Harris.
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
ugh
that play ruinied my whole day. it would have been huge for delgado too had it gone out, might have boosted his confidence big time, and he needed it.
"You know I am only teasing. I love you gals out there -- always have." - Keith Hernandez
+1
i was sitting in the left field mezz., just above and to the left of this play. probably the worst day i’ve had at shea, but there were about 50 other things that went wrong from parking to sun posioning…
by Rob Castellano on Feb 12, 2009 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
Hey, me too!
Left field, just on the grass, by the tarp.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Feb 12, 2009 6:05 PM EST up reply actions
Nick Johnson is a formar Expo Omar
You know you want him to complete your expo collection! (with cliff lee and sizemore being next on the list)
Please don't be giving Omar any ideas here.
As much as I like Nick Johnson’s skill set, that dude is injured even more than Alou was.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Feb 12, 2009 1:27 AM EST up reply actions
I wish the Mets had signed Bartolo Colon
Maybe Minaya could have traded him for Lee and Sizemore.
maybe while he's at it
he can re-hire Jim Duquette and put him to work on re-signing Victor Zambrano to trade him straight up for Scott Kazmir.
good post
We could get Wily but who wants him. I would love to get Harris or Lastings but that is unlikely. Kerns might be worth a shot if Wash would be willing to kick in some money. Dukes is OJ Simpson with a baseball glove. Johnson might be worth a shot on the cheap. Would the Nats be willing to assume some salary to get rid of any of these guys?
I saw
Dukes strike out 5 times in a Sally league game in 04. I’ve also seen dukes hit bombs that were still rising when they went over the fence. I’ve also seen him flip his shiznit at taunting fans, nearing physical confrontations on more than one occasion.
by HotChipWillBreakYourLegs on Feb 12, 2009 9:14 AM EST reply actions
New York
Doesn’t strike you that this would be the best atmosphere for him, then?
'Oh yes, I know all about that duty-of-a-citizen stuff. It doesn't go. There are exceptions to every rule, and this was one of them. When a man risks his liberty to come and root at a ball-game, you've got to hand it to him. He isn't a crook. He's a fan.'
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Feb 12, 2009 10:01 AM EST up reply actions
absolutely
players with big egos and quick tempers rarely stumble across any potentially harmful situations, see: burress, plaxico.
"You know I am only teasing. I love you gals out there -- always have." - Keith Hernandez
The very definition of ambivalence...
n. simultaneous and contradictory attitudes or feelings (as attraction or repulsion) toward an object, person, or action (Merriam-Webster.com)
Ambivalence for a Mets fan would be Elijah Dukes on the Phillies, even moreso than Dukes in NY. (Not that I’ve heard any rumors, but when it popped into my head a shudder went up my spine.)
The potential for mischief in NY is so great as to make me think it’s probably not worth the gamble. With his talent, he should already be a star—not just an emerging star. People who are their own worst enemy rarely turn that around.
But if he ended up in Philly I would be crestfallen; putting THAT bat in THAT park in THAT lineup? To consider it is to go mad a la Homer Simpson in “The Shinning.”
At the same time, my curiosity would easily get the best of me. How could anyone turn away from the inevitable drama between Dukes and those fans? It would be a love-hate relationship too delicious to ignore. He’s just as crazy as they are, Al Hrabosky crazy. Would they embrace him? How mercilessly would they ride him after one of those five strikeout days? How long would it take for him to go postal on them through the press, or hell, at the park? Would Stephen A. love him or hate him? I’d pay money to see it… and hate every agonizing moment.
"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin
by dcrockett17 on Feb 12, 2009 10:58 AM EST up reply actions
A "Mad Hungarian" reference
love it.
'Oh yes, I know all about that duty-of-a-citizen stuff. It doesn't go. There are exceptions to every rule, and this was one of them. When a man risks his liberty to come and root at a ball-game, you've got to hand it to him. He isn't a crook. He's a fan.'
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Feb 12, 2009 11:05 AM EST up reply actions
I'd love to see Screamin' A. Smith reinvent himself as a baseball analyst
It would be high comedy. “Elijah Dukes, YOU-CAN-NOT-BE-SERIOUS!”
by James Kannengieser on Feb 12, 2009 11:31 AM EST up reply actions
I think Elijah Dukes would actually murder somebody if he played in NY full-time
And not in a club, or at his apartment, either. I mean, he’d jump into the stands and beat a fan or six to death for taunting him. He makes Burgos look well-adjusted.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Feb 12, 2009 6:08 PM EST up reply actions
I wouldn't go that far.
Burgos is one crazy guy.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Although I WOULD say
he makes Brett Myers look like the ideal husband.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
eh
nice thought but would any of these guys really be a definite upgrade over what we’ve got going between church, murphy and tatis? even if we could get them for free i doubt they outproduce our current options. i’d rather just hold on to the prospects they’d probably cost…
now for some reason i just see this team and nick johnson on an unavoidable collision course in the next 1-2 seasons…
You're right to an extent
but say the Mets got Kearns or Willingham. Tatis could move to the bench, which would be a significant upgrade over what’s there now. You have to think about how it affects the whole makeup of the team. It’s not as simple as “Who is better: Murphy/Tatis or (insert Nats OF)”.
Plus, do we really think Church can play a full season? I sure as hell don’t.
by James Kannengieser on Feb 12, 2009 2:53 PM EST up reply actions
yeah but
you not only have to look at the whole makeup of the team but that of the farm system as well. and i personally value the antonini/gee mid-level prospects that i suspect would be required to trade for these guys more so than i do some more depth on the bench which can be found through much easier circumstances (ie fernando tatis circa ‘08). yes gee and the like aren’t going to be studs but these are the guys that will allow us to fill out the back half of the rotation in coming years extremely cheap, leading to money being utilized for other needs.
by Rob Castellano on Feb 13, 2009 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
If you got one of those guys
It’s possible you could send Murphy to AAA to learn 2nd base. I think Murphy developing into a cheap 2nd basemen with a + bat would be more valuable than antonini/gee level prospects.
true
i’m always in favor of murphy at 2nd
by Rob Castellano on Feb 13, 2009 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
I've been in favor of that for a while.
Which is why I wanted Dunn, so Murphy could be moved to AAA for at least the start of the year to learn 2nd.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Yeah I don’t really see the upside to getting one of the Nats OF…theyre not an improvement over what we have now AND would cost prosepcts.
I would possibly be in favour of Kearns for what he can potentially be but isn’t his salary like $10 mil per season for the next 2 seasons which brings me back to….Adam Dunn…..
:(
I'd take any of them
’cept Willingham.
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
Heh Pecota expects Milledge to be a 3.3 WARP player
And Church & Murphy to both be 1.2 WARP.
Here’s hoping this is one of their misses.
Pena
I think the Mets should try to trade for Pena or Kearns to help in Left Field, I’m sure they could be had for a low-level prospect. I’d also call up the Reds and offer 3B Jeffry Marte, RHP Eddie Kunz, and another prospect for Aaron Harang.
No, I like Marte.
I really would like Harang, but why do that trade now? Our rotation is solid.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Harang could make the rotation much better than solid
especially since his hr and flyball rates wouldn’t hurt as much citi, assuming it’s the homerun killer its expected to be, and with our outfield defense. But on the other hand he’s not exactly a sure thing and I don’t think we could afford his contract.
I would have preferred that trade to signing Ollie.
But not both.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
I like Harang,
but that’s a lot to give up for a pitcher we really don’t have a huge need for. Especially one coming off an arm injury. Think we’d be better off keeping our prospects. And I doubt all it takes to get Pena or Kearns is a low-level prospect. Kearns is pretty valuable b/c of his cheap contract, and if we wanted a corner outfielder who can’t play D, there were several available as free agents this year whom Omar passed on. And those guys were much, much better hitters than Wily Mo.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Feb 16, 2009 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
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