2009 Community Projections: Ryan Church

by Sam Page on Feb 16, 2009 3:00 PM EST in Community Projections Comment 18 comments

System	AVG	OBP	SLG
PECOTA	.254	.335	.421
Bill James	.275	.348	.457
CHONE	.258	.342	.428
Marcels	.270	.346	.445
Oliver	.271	.341	.462

PA/1B/2B/3B/HR/BB/SB

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Time to go to Church!

400/80/24/2/16/30/4

by Eric Simon on Feb 16, 2009 3:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I haven't projected any of the batters yet

b/c I honestly have absolutely no clue, but I’m optimistic about Church, so here goes:

591/98/37/1/19/51/5

by cjmulrain on Feb 16, 2009 3:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Too optimistic?

475/73/28/1/18/50/4

.282/.358/.480

by Sokojoe on Feb 16, 2009 3:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nah.

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Feb 16, 2009 3:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

for people who don’t like the Milledge trade, the average slash stats from the first 3 projections are .297/.396/.489, over an average of 445 ABs (granted I liked the trade and my stats skew the ABs up, but I have his slash stats the lowest, so it’s a tradeoff.)

by cjmulrain on Feb 16, 2009 3:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think your math is a bit off chap

.330/.380/.495 for Eric
.287/.349/.465 for you
.282/.358/.480 for me

.300/.362/.480 average, of course, maybe I’m wrong.

by Sokojoe on Feb 16, 2009 4:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I put it all into excel

and had it do the math – it’s on my other computer, so I may have input the data wrong, but that’s what it gave me.

by cjmulrain on Feb 16, 2009 4:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I figured it out

I added up all of the raw numbers, and got the averages from that. I didn’t just average out the slash stats, if that makes sense.

by cjmulrain on Feb 17, 2009 10:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gotcha, I still don't know how a .396 OBP

was generated but your point that you made about us liking Church makes sense regardless.

by Sokojoe on Feb 17, 2009 11:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah I added up the raw numbers and still got a .360ish obp

by Gina on Feb 17, 2009 2:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm a moron

and was just dividing H+BB/AB instead of PA. My bad.

by cjmulrain on Feb 17, 2009 2:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not as optimistic

380/72/19/0/14/34/2

by jasondg on Feb 16, 2009 3:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Question for everyone projecting low PA totals

are you predicting he’ll get hurt, or he’ll lose playing time to someone else? B/c someone pointed out on the other Church thread that he had only been hurt twice before last season, both in 2005. His lack of PA’s in Washington wasn’t due to injury, they just kept platooning/demoting him. I’m just curious, b/c I really don’t see him losing playing time to anyone – if he’s healthy, I think he plays close to 150 games.

by cjmulrain on Feb 16, 2009 4:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs