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Grading The 2009 Offseason

If you haven't seen a report card for the Mets' offseason yet, expect a few hundred in the coming weeks. Unfortunately, many writers determine these grades subjectively, much like "power rankings." The number of times the phrase "biggest need" or the number 62 will appear in said pieces figures to be astronomical, so that's the the last time you'll see either in this article. Instead, I've tried to inject some objectivity into the process. Next to each name will be a his projected WAR (what's this?) with the Mets, giving us an idea how many wins were gained or lost. The transactions are grouped for some context.

The Francisco Rodriguez Signing: B+

IN: RHP Francisco Rodriguez (2.7)

Minaya's first move turned out to be a pretty good one. The market for relief pitchers had completely collapsed by the time Rodriguez signed and the Mets got something of a bargain. Although some people would never advocate paying a closer double digits, that 2.7 projected WAR equates to roughly a 13 million dollar market value. Just beware when his 17.5 million dollar option for 2012 vests. Yikes.

The J.J. Putz Trade: B-

IN: RHP J.J. Putz (1.9), OF Jeremy Reed (-0.1), RHP Sean Green (0.5)

OUT: RHP Joe Smith (0.3), RHP Aaron Heilman (0.1), OF Endy Chavez (0.9), Jason Vargas (0.0)*, Mike Carp (0.0)*, Mikael Cleto (0.0)*, Ezequiel Carrera (0.0)*

NET WAR: 1.0

After the last two season, I won't trivialize the importance of one win, but that's a hell of a way to get one. The real kicker in this deal is Endy Chavez who actually did project be one win better as a Met than Jeremy Reed does. If the Mets had held onto Endy, this deal probably would have been the big win many think it is. As it stands, however, it's another great addition to the bullpen and lesson learned about the value of defense.

The Oliver Perez Signing: D

IN: Oliver Perez (1.3)

The money and the context make this one so bad. To be worth his 12MM per, Oliver must be a 2.5 win player each season, which, while possible, is unlikely. This grade also accounts somewhat for the move not made. The Mets signing Derek Lowe (3.6) seemed like a virtual certainty, shortly before he signed with the Braves for 4/60. The Derek Lowe v. Perez debate is tired now, and we've talked ad naseam about why Perez is overrated. Simply put: you don't lose out on 2.3 wins for 3 million dollars. Hopefully, Oliver proves us wrong.

The Schoeneweis Trade: B

IN: Connor Robertson (0.0)

OUT: Scott Schoeneweis (-0.4)

NET WAR: 0.5

That's no math error, that's the beauty of this trade. Since someone who isn't Connor Robertson will likely take Show's spot in the bullpen, the Mets can be assumed to gain at least half a win from this trade. There's no downside to a move like this, but it can only be a "B", because it was so painfully obvious.

The Redding and Garcia Signings: B+

IN: Tim Redding (0.9), Freddy Garcia (0.7)

OUT: Pedro Martinez (0.2)

NET WAR: 1.4

Those WAR projections assume Redding does long-relief and starting work, while Garcia does about 100 innings of starting before his arm falls off. That's the best part of these signings too, the depth. This year the Mets, stacked 3 deep at 5th starter, should be able to avoid the Brian Lawrences of the world. Both Garcia and Redding are signed reasonably and both have some upside.

The Alex Cora Signing: C-

IN: Alex Cora (0.2)

OUT: Damion Easley (0.2)

Swapping Easley for Cora is just swapping two over-the-hill backups with opposite skill sets. The Mets could have just kept Argenis Reyes on the bench for minimum wage and gotten the same results. Not a big deal.

The Rob Mackowiak and Cory Sullivan Signings: F

What a waste of money. These two are a combined -30 UZR in center and neither can hit. I don't even want to calculate their projected WAR, because if either makes the team the grade becomes a double-F-triple-minus.

Overal Grade: B

Total WAR gained: 5.8

This offseason gets the job done. For the third season in a row, the Mets are the best team in the NL East on paper. Depth in Left is always concern, but maybe this year F-Mart finally grows up. Ultimately, it was an offseason of necessary moves and missed opportunities.

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Alex Cora Fascination

Nov 2009 by James Kannengieser - 14 comments

Comments

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Weird Offseason

Ultimately, it was an offseason of necessary moves and missed opportunities.

Completely agree. It’s been a tough offseason to evaluate. The Mets ultimately improved the team, and we should all be happy about that. But the missed opportunities really nag at me. If we didn’t have the heartbreak of the past 2 seasons, it probably wouldn’t bother me as much. But how we have money to spend in the best buyer’s market in recent memory and not even sign ONE guy to an undermarket bargain contract? It’s baffling.

by DannyMetsGeek on Feb 19, 2009 8:16 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Do we?

Have money to spend, that is? I’m starting to believe we don’t. (Manny is still available as a free agent, of course.)

by JoshNY on Feb 19, 2009 9:02 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

We did.

We did have money to spend. Like $30M. It’s the way we used it that was troubling to me.

by DannyMetsGeek on Feb 19, 2009 9:09 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

We actually don't seem to

Which is why I would give the Cora and Redding signings lower grades.

by Gina on Feb 19, 2009 10:10 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Money

We had more of it than most teams did on the market.

by DannyMetsGeek on Feb 19, 2009 10:11 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

But not enough to sign anyone else.

As it is we’re right up against the cap.

by Gina on Feb 19, 2009 10:13 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I get that.

But the way we used the money we did have going into the offseason is what I am curious about. We just ate it all up with Oliver Perez and K-Rod, essentially. Where was the bargain?

by DannyMetsGeek on Feb 19, 2009 10:23 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Okay that I agree wit

Which like I said is why I would grade signings like Cora and Redding lower because we overpayed for no reason. Also why I liked the Putz trade better than the K-rod signing, and even though I think we had to address the 8th innings I’m not sure it made sense to do both.

by Gina on Feb 19, 2009 10:26 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, we're basically on the same page.

I didn’t HATE the Redding signing. He’s a decent bet to give innings and be slightly below league average. And he’s very happy swinging between the bullpen and #5 spot, so I like it as a depth move.

The Cora signing is abysmal. Just another case of Omar having tunnel vision. “We need this guy (a backup 2b/SS), I have identified Cora as the best guy, so I am going to do whatever it takes to get him.” He does that from time to time. I don’t mind as much when it is a truly elite playe like Beltran or Wagner or even K-Rod, but for Cora it seems silly. Especially when the Mets have a tight budget this year.

by DannyMetsGeek on Feb 19, 2009 10:29 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd grade the Cora signing lower, perhaps

Considering what he’s getting paid, the fact that he takes up a roster spot and the fact that this is the second off-season in a row where Omar has way overpaid a second baseman. Like you say, we coulda just stuck with Our Anus. I give it a D.

'Oh yes, I know all about that duty-of-a-citizen stuff. It doesn't go. There are exceptions to every rule, and this was one of them. When a man risks his liberty to come and root at a ball-game, you've got to hand it to him. He isn't a crook. He's a fan.'

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Feb 19, 2009 8:16 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Two gripes

The Putz Deal:

The real kicker in this deal is Endy Chavez who actually did project be one win better as a Met than Jeremy Reed does. If the Mets had held onto Endy, this deal probably would have been the big win many think it is.

Can we assume that Jack Zduriencik (who has been saying the right things, seems to making the right moves and probably reads Dave Cameron’s work) wanted Chavez and that this wasn’t a throw in but a major focus of the deal. (Remember, Franklin Gutierrez was also aquired by Seattle and might even be better defensively than Chavez )

Lowe Non-Deal

Simply put: you don’t lose out on 2.3 wins for 3 million dollars.

I think this is too simply put. Obviously this is an accurate statement, but assuming “lost” Lowe because of 3 million is a faulty arguement for a number of reasons. One, NY income tax is higher with no personal exemptions compared to Georgia. Cost of living is also higher in NY, $15 million in Hotlanta is equilvalant to $10,232,099 in NYC. Not to mention the Mets didn’t have a country singer give a video welcome, the fact Lowe might want to get out of big markets, etc. Who knows what the Mets would have actually have to pay to equal the Braves offer, let alone beat it.

by Sokojoe on Feb 19, 2009 9:20 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Well

1. I didn’t mean to imply Endy was a throw-in. Growing up with the Nashville Sounds is the easiest way to understand the genius of Jack Z, and I bet he did ask for Endy. Other people consider Endy a bit of a thrown-in, however, and I don’t even think Minaya values him properly.

2. Who knows what Lowe is thinking, but I bet with a guaranteed 4th year, the Mets could have beat the Braves’ offer.

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Feb 19, 2009 9:47 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Fair enough

1. Sounds like we’re on the same page

2. I still don’t think it would have beat the Braves offer, but to each his own.

Sorry I forgot to mention before, great write up. I hate KRod’s 17.5 vesting option, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts,

2012 option becomes guaranteed with:
55 games finished in 2011, and
100 games finished in 2010-11, and
doctors declare Rodriguez healthy after 2011

Kuso!

by Sokojoe on Feb 19, 2009 10:12 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

K-Rod contract

That last clause is quite subjective. Interesting.

by DannyMetsGeek on Feb 19, 2009 10:13 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not even sure we really missed out on Lowe

It seems like Omar preferred Perez the whole time.

by Gina on Feb 19, 2009 10:51 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think WE missed out on Lowe

Omar did not.

"You know I am only teasing. I love you gals out there -- always have." - Keith Hernandez

by OSUmets on Feb 19, 2009 11:05 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Good point

It’s not clear that Perez wasn’t really Minaya’s first choice all along.

by Eric Simon on Feb 19, 2009 12:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

cost of living and taxes is a huge factor that never gets talked about

but then again, neither does the huge descrepncy in potential endorsement deals. i have no idea really but im guessing it kind of equals out. got to be tough for small market high tax cities though.

HELLO HELLO MR WILPON. WE WANT THE MANSION NOT THE CONDO.

by kendynamo on Feb 19, 2009 10:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You mean 4th, maybe 5th, season in a row

Don’t forget 2006, when we were for sure the best, and on paper, may have been the best in ‘05, but there’s room to debate that.

by Metzfan22 on Feb 19, 2009 10:22 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

And the Perez signing...

Perez is not a D. The Mets needed a starter, he was the best available to them. 4/60 for Lowe would have been an even stupider investment. Once Lowe signed in Atlanta, Perez was the best available to us, and we got him for less than HALF what he wanted earlier in the off-season. I’d rate that at least a B

by Metzfan22 on Feb 19, 2009 10:23 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Also

Let’s not forget that the Mets seemingly upped their offer from $30 million to $36 million for no reason. If there was another suitor out there then everyone did a great job keeping it under wraps.

by Eric Simon on Feb 19, 2009 10:31 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes!

It definitely seems like we bid against ourselves with Perez. Minaya got played, IMO.

by DannyMetsGeek on Feb 19, 2009 10:40 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Also maybe it's just me

But as much as I love Endy and hate that he’s no longer on the team, I think I like the Putz trade more than the K-rod signing.

by Gina on Feb 19, 2009 10:24 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I know this is going to get me killed on here, but...

before I get into some points of disagreement, let me first give kudos to samt. Great article, and I love reading your stuff. I don’t always agree, but I think you provide a great perspective and I’ve even tweaked my own personal baseball philosophies a bit from reading your work. Good show.

Now, I will disagree a bit on the Putz grade. I may be nitpicking, because its not like I would bump the grade up that much, but I think what is important to take away from the Putz trade is not so much how many wins he adds himself, but what his acquisition does for the makeup of the bullpen (and taking a more macro view, the psyche of the team.) A guy like Putz is a weapon coming out of the bullpen. That dude has the skiilset to be a fireman in the traditional sense of the word. He could be our relief ace in the way the Cubs used Marmol and the Yanks used Joba. He gives us a guy who can come in and get strikeouts. In short, I think he allows Manuel more flexibility and creativity in how he tactically manages his bullpen. Obviously we have no way of empirically measuring this kind of intangible impact before the season, but I do believe the Putz acquisition, if he remains healthy and regains his form, could be the biggest move of the offseason. Oh, and if Manuel uses him as the relief ace. Let KRod get the saves, but bring Putz in for the high leverage, late game situations. This was something that was sorely lacking in the last few seasons, because they rarely brought Wagner in before the 9th. And while Heilman was a better reliever than I or other fans may have given him credit for, I do not believe he is on Putz’s level.

As for the Perez signing, I think this is a tough situation to grade. We had to sign a starting pitcher and they didn’t seem interested in giving a guy Lowe’s age a long term deal. I think we can all agree that Lowe is the better pitcher right now, but I have to admit to being wary of giving Lowe a 4 year deal. I don’t have a problem giving Ollie a higher per year salary since we only have him locked in for 3 years (I forget if there is an option for a 4th year, please correct me if I missed that.) Personally, I would rather go for a higher per year salary over a shorter duration when it comes to pitchers.

I agree with the Cora assessment, only because of how expensive that contract was. I disagree with the idea that Argenis Reyes would have been an adequate bench guy because I think Cora is more competent with the bat than Argenis. I like having a guy like Cora on the bench, just not for the money we’re paying him. Basically, I end up agreeing with you here.

Totally agree on the Mackowiak and Sullivan signings.

And finally, what did you think of signing Livan Hernandez to a minor league deal? I actually kind of dig it if there isn’t a “wink wink” agreement to release Livan if he doesn’t make the team. I think he could be a decent spot starter back in the NL.

by SQUAD on Feb 19, 2009 11:21 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

It's hard to measure

if not impossible, but I can get on board with Putz having a trickle-down effect, as long as he’s used properly.

Livan Hernandez is pretty useless. Let’s hope we don’t need him unless it’s to finish whatever food’s left over on the catering tray. Now that Marlon’s on the Tommy Lasorda diet, we can no longer count on him to fill that important intangible role.

by jasondg on Feb 19, 2009 11:37 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the kind words

I agree that Putz is our bullpen ace. I don’t know if that means he will affect the psyche of the entire team, but I’m open to the idea and I sure hope so. In terms of a “trickle-down effect” these bullpen acquisitions always have the hidden upside of forcing the worst player out of the ranks. Another upside for J.J. that you mention is high-leverage situations, which WAR actually accounts for. Putz’s WAR was calculated using a 1.3 Leverage factor, compared to Francisco’s 1.8 and everyone else’s <1.0. Hopefully Manuel uses Putz in the way you describe, but he’s very high on bullpen roles.

Livan projects to be exactly replacement level (0.0 WAR). I generally dislike the idea of inning eaters, since the ability to show up to work causes many teams to overlook the fact such pitchers have no stuff. That said, since he’s making virtually no money, I wouldn’t mind him on the Buffalo squad, just in case.

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Feb 19, 2009 12:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

excellent post

this is the kind of analysis and temperament that makes AA pwn the interwebs. i think you’re selling the putz deal a little short though. arent those WAR values assuming benefit over replacement level? so each team will value them differently. when the nats signed dunn, they wont realize the full benefit of his WAR because he’s taking the place of an above replacement level, and above average too probably, player. whereas we needed bullpen helped more than most teams, so omar traded a strength, OF depth, for a weakness, BP.

overall i think omar does a very good job making deals. his negotiating skills suck real bad though. i can forgive the frank rod overpayment, were a big market and we needed a big name closer. they lowe/perez deals were inexcusable, however, in my opinion. whoever in the front office is helping omar come up with free agent market values should be fired.

HELLO HELLO MR WILPON. WE WANT THE MANSION NOT THE CONDO.

by kendynamo on Feb 19, 2009 10:31 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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