Evaluating Mets Baserunning

by James Kannengieser on Feb 19, 2009 10:53 AM EST Comment 33 comments

Baseball Prospectus has some great baserunning stats linked here, which indicate how many runs above or below average a player's baserunning ability is worth. Stolen bases/caught stealings (SB/CS) and advancement on groundouts, flyouts, hits, passed balls, wild pitches, and balks are considered. Based on an idea from Beyond the Boxscore, I compiled the 2008 Mets players baserunning run values. The statistic wRAA includes SB/CS, and is used as the offense component of WAR. Therefore I removed the effect of SB/CS to focus only on the value of other baserunning factors. Here are the numbers:

Player	Runs
Jose Reyes	6.5
Carlos Beltran	4.37
Angel Pagan	2.05
Endy Chavez	1.61
Luis Castillo	1.59
Ryan Church	1.41
Damion Easley	1.24
Argenis Reyes	0.95
Marlon Anderson	0.67
Daniel Murphy	0.63
Carlos Delgado	0.05
Fernando Tatis	-0.17
Nick Evans	-0.45
Ramon Castro	-0.85
Brian Schneider	-1.59
David Wright	-2.71

A few notes:

Jose Reyes is even more valuable than we thought, worth .65 wins with his legs. He was worth about the same in 2007 as well.
Carlos Voltron.
It's surprising to see David Wright perform so poorly here. Maybe it's because of his frantic running form, but my perception is that he is fast and a good baserunner. He was better in 2007 though.
Endy would have been worth more if Luis Aguayo knew how to throw up the stop sign once in awhile.

Here are the "new" WAR figures for the 2008 Mets, calculated by adding baserunning runs to Fangraphs "old" WAR:

Player	Old WAR	New WAR
David Wright	7.42	7.15
Carlos Beltran	6.54	6.98
Jose Reyes	5.83	6.48
Carlos Delgado	2.95	2.96
Ryan Church	1.48	1.62
Fernando Tatis	1.57	1.55
Brian Schneider	1.64	1.48
Daniel Murphy	1.00	1.06
Endy Chavez	0.90	1.06
Ramon Castro	0.92	0.83
Luis Castillo	0.55	0.71
Angel Pagan	0.33	0.53
Damion Easley	0.38	0.5
Nick Evans	0.10	0.06
Argenis Reyes	-0.18	-0.09
Marlon Anderson	-0.78	-0.71

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Comments

Told you so.

(Eric)

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Feb 19, 2009 2:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Does this include pickoffs?

by Eric Simon on Feb 19, 2009 9:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Because

3-4 times last year DW got picked off on ridiculously obvious balks.

"I got my pregnant wife (the Yankee fan) with me. Hoping my kid learns to kick her everytime the Mets score." -Schifftis-

by future on Feb 19, 2009 11:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good question

If not, we might have to lower Good Reyes’s runs down a bit

by James Kannengieser on Feb 19, 2009 11:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting question. My best guess...

… is that the pickoffs that count as CS are already in Fangraphs’ wOBA. “Real” pickoffs are in BPro’s SB-piece of their ratings, and so aren’t counted by this analysis.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Feb 19, 2009 1:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm shocked Wright is so low

but not even remotely surprised Reyes and Beltran are so good.

by cjmulrain on Feb 19, 2009 8:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

See?

And we all thought that Marlon Anderson was good-for-nothing.

'Oh yes, I know all about that duty-of-a-citizen stuff. It doesn't go. There are exceptions to every rule, and this was one of them. When a man risks his liberty to come and root at a ball-game, you've got to hand it to him. He isn't a crook. He's a fan.'

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Feb 19, 2009 10:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wright

Is he really that bad? Wow.

by DannyMetsGeek on Feb 19, 2009 11:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah I have to wonder how much the change in coaches/managers had to do with this

Because he was much better in 07, maybe this is something we can blame on Aguayo?

by Gina on Feb 19, 2009 11:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I hate him.

One level below Castillo.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Feb 19, 2009 11:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Has there ever been a third base coach anyone ever liked?

(A: Manny Acta)

But for the most part that’s the job, you either don’t notice a third base coach or the fans hate him. Fans were calling Sandy Alomar, “Send’em Sandy” and other Mets third base coachs had nicknames like that, it’s a lose-lose poistion to be in.

by Sokojoe on Feb 19, 2009 11:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I liked Cookie Rojas

awesome name plus he was short and fat. What was there not to love?

by cjmulrain on Feb 19, 2009 1:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good point

No one could dislike Mookie and Cookie manning the corners.

by Sokojoe on Feb 19, 2009 2:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wright had 15 SB and was caught 5 times

In 2007, he had 34 SB to 5 CS. I think there is probably a correlation between his worse SB numbers and his worse running numbers. It seems he lost his aggresiveness on the paths a bit and probably loads of bad luck. So, I’m expecting a bounce back… or maybe Wright isn’t a clutch runner.

by Sokojoe on Feb 19, 2009 11:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

These numbers don't include SB/CS

So, as far as these numbers are concerned, Dub is just a bad baserunner in general, which still surprises me.

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Feb 19, 2009 11:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm aware they don't include that,

I just believe that there probably is correlation between the decline of the numbers. If DWright isn’t stealing as well, it would make sense that he just isn’t running as well/ making bad running decisions as opposed to it being Aguayo.

by Sokojoe on Feb 19, 2009 12:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gotcha,

and an interesting concept to boot — is a good base-runner/base-stealer negatively affected overall by the decision to rein in one aspect of his running game? I’d hope not, but I can also see why Dub’s (perceived) short lease in 2008 might have hurt him with taking the extra base or whatever.

At the very least, I’d like to see him get back to even or better here. It’s mighty embarrassing to be dead last given some of the names above him on that list.

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Feb 19, 2009 12:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He was actually running better at the end of the season

or at least with more success. From June to the end of the season he was sent 8 times and caught once. So it really could be a number of things, maybe he was sent less because of manger ideology, maybe he was sent less because of early struggles and when he was sent they were high percentage chances. It’s really hard to tell.

by Gina on Feb 19, 2009 2:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

pagan

pagan was worth 2.05 runs in only 91 at-bats? that seems like a really high runs-above-average per at bat rate, no?

not saying it’s incorrect, just surprised pagan was the third-best baserunner on the team in only 91 at-bats. although i guess one can say he just didn’t have many opportunities to make baserunning mistakes and bring down the number of runs he created.

by englishgrey on Feb 19, 2009 11:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I triple checked Pagan's numbers cause they didn't seem right

but they are. I think your assessment is pretty good, about not having opportunities to be a shite baserunner. Apparently he’s a sick athlete though, read somewhere that he has a 39 inch vertical.

I wonder which Mets can dunk.

by James Kannengieser on Feb 19, 2009 11:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My money on

Pelfrey. Just pelf.

Who's world is it? It's yours.

by BlackOps on Feb 19, 2009 1:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

2007 Baserunning Numbers

Is there a link for the 2007 Baserunning Numbers? I would be interested to compare it against 2008.

by DannyMetsGeek on Feb 19, 2009 11:13 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yes

Click here, and subtract the row “EQSBR” from the row “EQBRR” to determine the same stats listed above. Quick summary of the core Mets from 2007:

Reyes: 6.59
Wright: 0.52
Beltran: 1.97
Delgado: -7.21 (yikes)

by James Kannengieser on Feb 19, 2009 11:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks!

Holy Moses was Delgado bad in 2007!

by DannyMetsGeek on Feb 19, 2009 11:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Some folks have done preliminary work on year-to-year stability of these basrunning numbers and they're okay.

Similar to fielding metrics, although the spread isn’t nearly as large.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Feb 19, 2009 1:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So, when projecting baserunning,

a three year weighted average would be alright?

by Sokojoe on Feb 19, 2009 2:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The more data the merrier.

Weighted averages are always good. The big trick is figuring out how much regression to the mean should be done. The moderate trick is figuring out the proper weights for the previous seasons.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Feb 19, 2009 5:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

CD

Delgado not hurting anybody with his wheels. Glad to see that.

Aguayo killed everybody. He was the worst. Are there any metrics for him?

by whynot on Feb 19, 2009 11:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

That was the biggest surprise to me

Delgado is one of the worst baserunners in MLB history, where did he go right?

by Sokojoe on Feb 19, 2009 11:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

There definitely isn't any relationship between SB/CS and these numbers

Because Delgado’s numbers were much worse in ’07, even though he had 4 steals in 4 attempts. Last year he was 1-for-2 and was pretty good.

"One of the nice things about baseball is that there are no rules you can't break." - Jim Bouton

by Prince on Feb 19, 2009 12:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Delgado's back end of someone else's SB steals,

shouldn’t really affect his running numbers too much. What brought them down so much in 2007 and in the past was the guy routinely would try to go first to third or second to home and just didn’t have the wheels for it. He not only would get thrown out, but by half a baseline. Either he recoginzed his limitations or last year was a fluke.

by Sokojoe on Feb 19, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs