Report: Mets Close To Deal With Perez
So says the Berg-meister. I'll believe it (begrudgingly) when I see it.
Update [3:00pm]: Looks like three years and $36 million. He's not worth that, but, whatever.
9 months ago
Eric Simon
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I'm really interesting in
and slightly dreading seeing the numbers. hopefully it’s not more, or at least not much more than the 30 over 3 years we originally offered.
by Gina on Feb 2, 2009 1:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Blah.
And Ben Sheets continues to sit, collecting dust.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Feb 2, 2009 2:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don't mind them sitting on Sheets if it's an injury concern
And considering supposedly he’s been willing to sign for as little as 1 year 8-10 million and there still doesn’t seem to be much interest in him I have to figure there’s something scaring a lot of teams in his medical report.
by Gina on Feb 2, 2009 2:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
According to metsblog
3 years 36 million with a 4th year option which can be vested based on innings pitched totals.
by Gina on Feb 2, 2009 2:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yay.
Forgive me for not being excited. Assuming the option vests, he’ll likely end up with the same length contract as Lowe, and no first round pick this year. Hope the extra money saved ends up being worth it.
by jasondg on Feb 2, 2009 2:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ugh thats the thing that bothers me the most
Basically 3 million more a year gets you Lowe, which to me is a pretty significant upgrade. Not to mention the extra pick.
by Gina on Feb 2, 2009 2:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
People like me
who complain about signings like Redding and Cora, would really rather not needlessly lose draft picks and thus lose an opportunity to add another controllable, cheap talent who might contribute one day. Granted, they would also need to be willing to pay above slot and not draft ruff college relief pitchers.
by jasondg on Feb 2, 2009 2:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ugh the college relief pitchers
Is one thing I will never understand. Like I just don’t see when it ever makes sense to draft those kind of players high.
by Gina on Feb 2, 2009 2:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Teams think those guys can help right away
but I can’t remember when, if ever, it’s worked out that way. There’s a reason those guys are relief pitchers in college.
by jasondg on Feb 2, 2009 2:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Joe Smith helped pretty much right away
by JoshNY on Feb 2, 2009 3:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But he could only get one out
And we could have called someone like Brian Stokes up for that.
by Gina on Feb 2, 2009 3:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well yeah, I'm not starting a Joe Smith for HoF bandwagon or anything
But he did do something effectively (even if it was only get out righties) and he did do it basically right away, is all I’m saying
by JoshNY on Feb 2, 2009 3:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He was drafted a bit later
Don’t have as much of a problem with that; would still rather not do it. Also, he’s just a ROOGY. Kunz and Rustich aren’t looking good. Craig Hansen was a first-rounder – one of Epstein’s few misfires.
by jasondg on Feb 2, 2009 3:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Chad Cordero? Huston Street?
Or am I remembering incorrectly?
by ams258 on Feb 2, 2009 3:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
BUT HE"S YOUNGER!!!!!!!!!
…failure from NY media.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Feb 2, 2009 11:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Joel Sherman
reports no vesting option – straight up 3/$36mm deal. Makes it a little better, I suppose.
by jasondg on Feb 2, 2009 2:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Going 4 years to Lowe is not the same as (potentially) going 4 years to Perez.
For one, even if the reports of a vesting option are true, he has to stay healthy in order to reach that point, which is a significantly lower risk then guaranteeing him the year.
For two, Lowe is 35 years old right now, Oliver Perez is 27 years old right now. Lowe will be 39 years old at the end of that contract, Perez (provided this potential option vests) will be 31 years old at the end of his deal. Assuming that Lowe doesn’t decline over the next 4 years seems incredibly naive. Assuming that Perez doesn’t decline physically over the next 4 years seems like a relatively safe bet (At least as safe a bet a pitcher on a multi-year deal can be).
by adropofvenom on Feb 2, 2009 3:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Perez vs Lowe
I think the argument is that, even given relative decline (some for Lowe, perhaps not for Perez), right now Lowe is a much, much better pitcher than Perez (Lowe was worth 5 wins in 2008; Perez was worth 1.3). Perez could improve while Lowe is unlikely to, but unless we see a miraculous turnaround, Lowe is still likely to be quite a bit more valuable over the next four years (or three) than is Perez.
by Eric Simon on Feb 2, 2009 3:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The discussion is moot, at this point,
but age isn’t the only difference between the two.
by jasondg on Feb 2, 2009 3:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Even if Lowe declines
He’s already worth much more than Perez, and like worth a bit more than the 15 million he was payed where as Perez is worth much less than this. He would have to decline significantly, like fall off a cliff almost, for this contract to be better value than Lowes. And considering he’s a heavy groundballer and not a strike out pitcher, and they tend to age much better, I just don’t see any way that in 3 or 4 years this contract looks better than the one that was given to Lowe.
by Gina on Feb 2, 2009 3:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Unrelated to Ollie
but the AA main page is formatting strange today. It’s probably my P.O.S. computer but maybe not.
by James Kannengieser on Feb 2, 2009 2:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Is it better now?
Are you using IE?
by Eric Simon on Feb 2, 2009 2:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I am not a big Perez fan but
tough to complain about these numbers 36m for three years. He may not be worth 12m a year in the end but it is a risk worth taking. Remember it wasn’t too long ago that people were talking about him getting 70 million over five years. And he does beat the Yankees, Braves and Phillies.
by Endys Game on Feb 2, 2009 2:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
but...
was anyone else bidding on him? or was Omar bidding against himself again?
by JoshNY on Feb 2, 2009 3:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Based on the reports that have been coming out of metsblog for the last week or so
It sounds like Omar was bidding against himself and increased the offer to get Perez to sign quicker.
by Gina on Feb 2, 2009 3:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
exactly
Against whom were the Mets bidding here? I don’t hate the signing, but the process seems to lame to me. Makes Omar look like a chump.
We've got ourselves a ball club, the Mets of New York town!
by kingcritical on Feb 2, 2009 3:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
which he set himself up for by seeming to pretty obviously have been fixated on Ollie
by JoshNY on Feb 2, 2009 3:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Omar v The Great Gazoo?
Gazoo is all “I’m going to offer him 4 years $40 million, dum-dum.”
'Oh yes, I know all about that duty-of-a-citizen stuff. It doesn't go. There are exceptions to every rule, and this was one of them. When a man risks his liberty to come and root at a ball-game, you've got to hand it to him. He isn't a crook. He's a fan.'
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Feb 2, 2009 3:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
fantastic (in the smallest possible font and the greatest understood sarcasm)
" PLEASE! CHANGE THE PATCH! "
by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Feb 2, 2009 3:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks B-V
I’m looking forward to the start of the season. I’m burnt out on the non-action of the off-season.
" PLEASE! CHANGE THE PATCH! "
by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Feb 2, 2009 10:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Assuming we aren't going to pony up the cast for Manny
Doesn’t it still make sense to offer Sheets a contract for something like 2 years, $19 mil? Especially now, since Perez is signed (plus the signings of Redding and Garcia), there’s more insurace in the rotation if Sheets ends up going down with an injury.
What are the chances Omar/Mets management thinks that way? Wouldn’t they rather have a rotation of Johan/Sheets/Maine/Ollie/Big Pelf than Redding instead of Sheets?
"You know I am only teasing. I love you gals out there -- always have." - Keith Hernandez
by OSUmets on Feb 2, 2009 3:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
"What are the chances Omar/Mets management thinks that way?"
You bring up a good question, however, I think the more important questions is: Do they think at all?
" PLEASE! CHANGE THE PATCH! "
by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Feb 2, 2009 3:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that would be a pretty great rotation
but I don’t think Omar thinks that way
by JoshNY on Feb 2, 2009 3:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I just don't get why.
I know it’s easy for us to sit here and play GM and say to sign this guy and that guy. But I don’t think there is a person on this site who thinks the Mets are an “elite” team with the way the roster is currently constructed. The team needs one more “major” signing.
I’d rather see the Mets sign Manny instead of Sheets, but I can understand the team not wanting to throw $80 mil at a 36 year old, no matter how good of a hitter he is. But if that’s the way they are thinking, I go back to my original point. Sign Sheets, and even more so now, because he would be such a bargain. Even at $20 mil for 2 years, that is a huge bargain for a pitcher of his caliber. Plus its probably more money and guaranteed years than the Rangers are looking to give him.
Make a(nother) move Omar!
"You know I am only teasing. I love you gals out there -- always have." - Keith Hernandez
by OSUmets on Feb 2, 2009 3:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Eh maybe not on this site
But there are a lot of fans on other blogs who definitely think the Mets the way they are now are an elite team. They expect Perez/Pelfrey/Maine to all pitch like 2/3’s and think Delgado will hit like he did the second half and Murphy will hit like he did last season over a larger sample size.
Also money is actually a huge issue because the Wilpons refuse to go over the luxury tax. From what I understand right now we’re actually literally right up against it because of the escalating nature of a lot of the contracts we have.
by Gina on Feb 2, 2009 3:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Like to the point that
I don’t think we would be able to sign Sheets even for 8 million and stay under it.
by Gina on Feb 2, 2009 3:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know
I mean, I’ve got the Mets pegged to win in the low-mid 90s. Some things went right last year, but a lot of things went wrong, too.
That doesn’t mean I don’t want them to get Sheets or an OF – I do, I really really do. Every additional win is precious when you’re projected to win 85 to 90 or so games.
by jasondg on Feb 2, 2009 3:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh i expect them to win 88-90 games too
But I think the Braves and Phillies will definitely be right there too, and maybe even the Marlins depending on what they’re young players do and whether they’re front office is trying to compete this year, not to mention I think there are still a lot of things that could go wrong this year, that we don’t have real contingency plans for.
by Gina on Feb 2, 2009 4:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What kind of contingency plans would you implement?
With the available FA/trade options?
by Sokojoe on Feb 2, 2009 4:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
With the current available ones or originally?
With the players/money available now I’d like them to sign someone like Will Ohman or maybe another bat to the bench. There’s really not many options left at this point.
by Gina on Feb 2, 2009 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Personally, I wouldn't sign Ohman
I’m a big believer in finding LOOGYs rather than buying them. Also, I’m of the belief that having one LOOGY is fine for a team even in this division if it means a better RH gets a spot over another pitcher just because of his handedness (Stokes, Parnell, Redding, Cherry, O’Day,) but we’ll see how it plays out.
by Sokojoe on Feb 2, 2009 4:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ohman
held righties to a sub-.700 OPS in 2008 – not terrible at all.
by jasondg on Feb 2, 2009 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah his splits are pretty even
Which is why I would want to sign him because he’s not a specialist.
by Gina on Feb 2, 2009 4:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ohman wants $8 over 2
I don’t I’m comfortable with that, not that I think he’ll get it, but it’s going to be close with the LaRussa really liking him and the Cardinals wanting to do something for Pujols.
by Sokojoe on Feb 2, 2009 5:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ohman wants that
But think it’s pretty clear in this market he has 0 chance of getting that. Or even near it.
by Gina on Feb 2, 2009 5:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Still, do we really need to guarantee
a spot for another LOOGY, I realize he had a good season in .695 OPS against RH in 117 ABs, but in 07 RH hit .853, and .756 over his career compared to .603 vs LH, I listed the WHIPs below, dude’s a LOOGY.
by Sokojoe on Feb 2, 2009 5:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ohman's splits
2008- 1.52 WHIP for RH, .98 WHIP vs LH
Career- 1.63 WHIP vs RH, 1.11 WHIP vs LH
Felicano Career splits:
1.63 WHIP vs RHP, 1.09 WHIP vs LH.
by Sokojoe on Feb 2, 2009 5:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Better than Schoeneweis
That’s all I got.
by jasondg on Feb 2, 2009 5:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Im not convinced
The Phillies or the Braves have gotten that much better this offseason to the point where anyone thinks that the Mets cant compete and win this thing. Phillies couldnt lose last home stretch, going a ridiculous 17-8 in September, and 12-3 in the last two weeks. Indication of superior talent, or did they jsut get really damn hot at the perfect time? I know what the numbers say about WAR and all, but for a second think about all the games you just plained watched, in agony. With Putz and Krod, how many more games would we have won?
by TBlz on Feb 2, 2009 4:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Right
And if the Mets could go back in time (maybe talk to Daniel Faraday or Ben Linus?) and replace Ayala/Heilman with K-Rod/Putz they’d have been division champs. The problem is we can’t rely on everything else (offense, defense, starting pitching) to perform identically in 2009 as they did in 2008.
by James Kannengieser on Feb 2, 2009 6:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
True
though I tend to be optimistic here. Maybe assume some regression from Pelfrey and Johan, and Tatis and Murphy, but Maine was hurt and/or ineffective for most of last year. And maybe we don’t have Armas/Vargas/Figgy et al sucking it up every 5th day. And we won’t have Pedro sucking. And Heilman, Jorge Sosa, Ayala, and the Horror Scho. And maybe we won’t have to rely on guys like Pagan and Endy and whoever to log major innings in the corner OFs.
So, who knows.
by jasondg on Feb 2, 2009 6:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not saying we won't be good
Just that we could have distanced ourselves from the braves and phillies and instead we’re going to be in a dogfight where we could just as easily miss the miss the play-offs as we could win the division.
by Gina on Feb 2, 2009 6:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely
I mean, when at least two, and maybe 3 teams are in that 88-93 win range… every win matters. And so does luck.
by jasondg on Feb 2, 2009 7:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nobody can see the future
But I guess the basis of my point is that other clubs have the same reservations that the Mets do going into the season. Will Lidge repeat perfection? Will Moyer keep his magic act up? Will Victorino slug close to 100 pts better than his career norms in September? Will Howard slug a mind-boggling 260 pts better than his career norm in Sep? Will the BP survive the first third of the season without Romero? If the answer is “no” to any of these questions, I’d say they could be pretty nervous going into the season too. Not taking anythinig away from the Series win, the stars seemed aligned last fall for those guys.
by TBlz on Feb 2, 2009 7:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
But my point is we could have avoided/alieved some of those reservations just by doing small things like not paying Alex Cora 2.5 million to be an older version of A. Reyes or paying the extra 3 million for Lowe, or signing a bench player like Eric Hinske, so that there’s no excuse for Marlon Anderson to ever, leave the bench or for one of those awful outfielders to make the team, or signing a pitcher like Brad Penny or maybe Smoltz or petite to an incentive laden deals.
by Gina on Feb 2, 2009 8:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That Hinske deal was under the radar
Nice little signing by the Pirates.
by James Kannengieser on Feb 2, 2009 10:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll be buying my case of Tumms later in the week
It’s going to be hard to stomach another three years of Ollie’s starts.
Once again Omar proves that while he’s not a bad GM in terms of evaluating talent, he has no savvy when it comes to analyzing markets, managing contracts, or finding replacement talent.
by Reg Dunlop on Feb 2, 2009 5:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
Watching Ollie is like watching the outcome of a roulette wheel.
" PLEASE! CHANGE THE PATCH! "
by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Feb 2, 2009 10:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You know what?
I’ve decided I’m on board with signing Manny at this point. If we don’t upgrade our rotation, we should upgrade our lineup significantly. Just don’t overpay, as Adam Dunn is a fallback.
Thoughts?
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Feb 2, 2009 11:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Theres no way for it to happen
And for us to stay under the luxury tax threshold. And the wilpons don’t want to pay the tax.
by Gina on Feb 3, 2009 12:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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