Welcome Back Ollie

by Sokojoe on Feb 2, 2009 11:53 PM EST

There has been much debate over Oliver Perez at this and other Mets sites. No matter which side you were on, Perez is a Met... again. I'm all about rational thinking, but above all else, I am a Mets fan. So, put on your reading glasses, it's about to get optimistic all up in here.

The arguments against Perez have been laid out all over this site. To simplify here are some of the main points against Perez:

1) His best case scenario (Randy Johnson) is a bad comp.
2) His stuff isn't that impressive (91 MPH FB, only two pitches)
3) His FIP hasn't been impressive the past couple of years, really it has only been good, not great, once.

I supported these stances on Perez, but tonight, I'm drinking Kool Aid.

Meddler discussed possible comps for Ollie besides Lascivious Wily and rolled out several names. The one that I liked best was a former Met, Player A. Meddler stated,

Player A was barely even an average LHP until his age 29 season.

Let's take a look at Player A's career leading up to joining the Mets, (I'm guessing most of you have figured out who he is by now.)

Player A, three years prior to joining Mets, had FIPs of 4.37, 3.97, and 4.21. He accomplished this with a limited pitch selection and high walk rates per 9 of 5.31, 4.97, and 5.41. However, A had solid K per 9s of 7.52, 8.36, and 7.85. (For comparisons sake, in the past three seasons, Ollie has put up FIPs of 5.61 (Mixed time with Pitt and Mets,) 4.35, and 4.68, BB per 9 of 5.43, 4.02, and 4.87 coupled with K rates of 8.15, 8.85, and 8.35.)

Even with his high BB rate, the Mets spent a lot to acquire Player A and he did not disappoint, reducing his walk rate at the age of 32 to 3.31 and, more-or-less, sustaining his lowered BB rate for 5 seasons after. In his age 32 season, he put up a career best 3.15, which was just the beginning of a number of great season for the Mets. So, how'd he do it.

[Player A] was a pitcher who relied on power and emotion, rather than finesse and guile..."When we got him he thought that if you didn't throw well then you should throw harder, try harder," Phillips says... At an age when many pitchers are nearing the end of their career, [Player A] found a way to make his begin... "I was inconsistent because I didn't have a routine to believe in," [Player A] says. So he learned to take his fitness and his preparation more seriously. When he took the mound he learned to focus on each pitch. "I need to have absolute positivity and concentration. Bore a hole with your eyeballs through the catcher's glove. Be relentless," he says. "The distractions, the fans, the manager, the fight with your life or family, the beer man - none of that is there."

The A in Player A is, of course, stands for Al as in the Jersey Grunter, Al Leiter. Al relied on his cutter, curveball combo much in the same way Perez relies on his four seamer, slider combo. As explained by Leiter, the real difference in his results was due to a mental adjustment that simply cannot be measured by statistics in any way or form. Leiter walk rates, major or minor, in no way hint towards great improvement, nor was Leiter's stuff that outstanding. So, no matter how much we dissect numbers and read scouting reports, for pitcher's in particular, (I apologize for how cliché this next line is) there is a human element that we cannot forget. As of today, I am officially an Ollie supporter again and will defend his ability to play this great game of baseball as long as he wears the orange and blue.

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Another good comp

There was another comp I brought up in our discussion in the other thread that deserves attention, as it is both more optimistic and contemporary. I failed to mention it in the first list of examples of pitchers who made some sort of vague improvement in their mid-late 20s, but in a lot of ways its more relevant than any of them. I noticed it looking at Perez’s PECOTA card from last year, and this is a guy who appeared in Perez’s top 10 comps.

This player was drafted in the 4th round of the 2000 Amateur Draft by the Montreal Expos. In one of the most lopsided trades in history, our very own GM, Omar Minaya traded him along with other future stars such as Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips to the Cleveland Indians (hows that for a hint?).

Like Perez, Cliff Lee stands on a wiry frame at 6’3", and features a quality breaking ball to compliment his low-mid 90s heat. His first full season (2004), at the age of 25, was marked with a solid 8.09 K/9 but an ugly 4.07 BB/9 and 4.97 FIP (those numbers should look pretty familiar). That season also matched up pretty well with his minor league rates of 10.2 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 in 427 innings. The following year, he would flash the brilliance that was to come later on by reducing both his K/9 and BB/9 and improving his FIP to 3.79. However, this success would be short lived, as his command regressed in 2006 and 2007 before he was eventually sent to the minors to work out the kinks. We all know what he finally did in 2008.

This is an interesting comp in that, although their respective career paths differ slightly, its a good example of what Perez should be aiming to do. He could stand to miss a few less bats if it meant improving his command, and he’d likely do a better overall job of preventing runs, a la Lee’s transformation between 2004 and 2005.

This is NOT a comp that suggests it will soon all “click” for Perez, and he will be the next Cliff Lee. But the physical similarities as well as matching repertoires mean Lee could be a fine blueprint for how the Perez should try to shape his future. And it is a good example of what Perez’s absolute ceiling probably looks like. There are lots of factors that will effect Perez’s chances of reaching that ceiling, and its very unlikely that he will. But there is a lot of room between where Perez is right now and that ceiling, and finding somewhere in between would be just fine with me.

by Mark Himmelstein on Feb 3, 2009 1:56 AM EST reply actions

Another thing

that Lee did in 2008 vs. previous years was drastically increase his GB rate. Much Like Ollie, Lee was very much a flyball pitcher. His GB% was in the mid 30s for most of his career, and it jumped all the way to 45% in 2008, nearly 10% higher than his previous career high. Again, this isn’t to suggest that this is something Ollie WILL do, but something he perhaps could do, and more importantly, something he should probably try to do.

by Mark Himmelstein on Feb 3, 2009 2:10 AM EST up reply actions

Also

Nice job sticking to your guns on the positive Leiter comp for Perez ;).

by Mark Himmelstein on Feb 3, 2009 1:57 AM EST reply actions

I'm a man of my word.

by Sokojoe on Feb 3, 2009 12:59 PM EST up reply actions

Love it.

As a long standing Ollie supporter, this was great. I still have hope for Ollie and whatever you think of him, I still think he is the most entertaining pitcher on the team.

by SQUAD on Feb 3, 2009 2:29 PM EST reply actions

depends on what you mean by entertaining

personally, I find watching Johan simply dominate 3/4 of a season to be supremely entertaining.

by cjmulrain on Feb 3, 2009 2:51 PM EST up reply actions

Watching Johan pitch is kind of like a religious experience for me...

I just sit there mesmerized and diligently record what happens in my scorecard.

But when Ollie pitches it’s like going to a heavy metal show. 1/3 of the time everything is perfect: the acoustics are good, the band is on point, the crowd is into it, and you’re in the zone. 1/3 of the time the experience is enjoyable, but it’s kind of a roller coaster ride because either a support band was terrible, the acoustics are off a bit, maybe pregamed too much, etc, but in the end, the headliner came out and played loud, you moshed, and at the end of the night you had a good time. And 1/3 of the time it is just a total disaster: the lead singer was drunk, the audio was too low, the guitars were out of tune, some drunk idiot kept starting fights in the pit, some guy decided it was a good idea to bring his g/f into the pit and kept whining whenever you bumped into him, one of your friends got thrown out, or the headliner gets stuck in a snowstorm. Those kind of shows leave you miserable by the end of the night, but on the way home, you can’t stop talking about it because at least things were interesting.

by SQUAD on Feb 3, 2009 5:26 PM EST up reply actions

haha

nice analogy. For what it’s worth, I like Ollie, and I’m not upset he’ll be back, I just don’t think the team overall has improved enough this offseason and I think Omar wasted too much time and money on Ollie when there were better option out there.

by cjmulrain on Feb 3, 2009 6:15 PM EST up reply actions

I don't dislike him.

I just would rather have Ben Sheets at $9 mil than Ollie at $12 mil, which is more than reasonable on my part.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Feb 3, 2009 10:49 PM EST up reply actions

Depending on the extent of Sheets injury

With no one interested except the Rangers (and even they have been cautious), I think Sheets is badly injured.

by Sokojoe on Feb 3, 2009 11:08 PM EST up reply actions

Well, now its not "depending on the extent"

looks like Sheets had a deal with the Rangers that was nixed when a physical revealed he may need surgery

The Mets may have missed an opportunity on Lowe, but after that, it was really Ollie or bust.

by Mark Himmelstein on Feb 5, 2009 2:00 PM EST up reply actions

Bittersweet

being right about that.

by Sokojoe on Feb 5, 2009 2:08 PM EST up reply actions

Absolutely

Sheets is a guy I always rooted for. Great intensity and presence on the mound to go with terrific stuff.

by Mark Himmelstein on Feb 5, 2009 2:54 PM EST up reply actions

Now that this information has come out, I understand.

But Omar still overpaid for Ollie.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Feb 5, 2009 3:15 PM EST up reply actions

I agree

but lets not forget, a year ago, the 5/70 Boras went into the offseason looking to get for Ollie would have seemed just as reasonable as the 3/36 he got this year. Remember Silva? BLECH! Ollie’s much better than Silva, and he get less money a year later.

by Mark Himmelstein on Feb 5, 2009 3:45 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, but to be fair

This offseason has been all about the bargains. I agree that with Sheets being injured, Ollie was the next best option after Derek Lowe. However, I can see no reason that Omar wouldn’t want to shell out an extra $2 per and an extra year for Lowe.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Feb 5, 2009 6:45 PM EST up reply actions

That's assuming

Lowe just wanted the Mets to match the braves offer. What’s a personal video from a country singer worth to Lowe. Plus, maybe he didn’t want to deal with big market fans/media/tax rates etc.

by Sokojoe on Feb 5, 2009 7:04 PM EST up reply actions

Its been a better buyers market

but I wouldn’t say, as far as SP goes, its been “all about the bargains”. I’m pretty sure Lowe’s deal is the largest/longest ever given to a pitcher of his age. Sabathia got paid exactly as expected. Burnett got 5/82, which is just as ridiculous as Ollie at 3/36, if not moreso.

The only markets that were really depressed this offseason were relief pitching and corner outfielders with good bats and marginal defense.

by Mark Himmelstein on Feb 6, 2009 6:15 PM EST up reply actions

+1

i’ve made some bold statements regarding my confidence in perez and i look forward to watching him back me up first hand.

by Rob Castellano on Feb 3, 2009 3:56 PM EST up reply actions

I look forward to him backing you up as well

Let’s go Mets!

by Sokojoe on Feb 3, 2009 4:04 PM EST up reply actions

his stuff isn't that impressive?

i don’t remember that argument. i thought it was basically agreed that odawg has great stuff. its just those walks that kill him.

i mean in his 2 full seasons with the mets hes come in at #5 and #10 in terms of BAA in the NL and then #3 and #12 in terms of k/9. of course his oOBP jumps up higher than most guys on those top 10’s (again due to walks) but the stuff is definitely there. he might not hit 97 like he used to but the numbers bear out, hes not easy to hit.

interesting note: john maine is #9 and #11 in BAA those 2 seasons and #8 and #20 in k/9.

by Rob Castellano on Feb 3, 2009 4:33 PM EST reply actions

and for the record

santana was #8 in BAA and #18 in k/9 last year.

by Rob Castellano on Feb 3, 2009 4:43 PM EST up reply actions

His stuff

He used to throw 95+ but now it’s settled to more the 91 range according to Fangraphs making his fastball average to go along with a great slider that he can’t control. Sam brought up the stuff arguement in this post.

In any event, it seems your definition of “stuff” is low BAA and high K/9. That’s fine, I prefer baseballprospectus’ stuff stat

A rough indicator of the pitcher’s overall dominance, based on normalized strikeout rates, walk rates, home run rates, runs allowed, and innings per game. “10” is league average, while “0” is roughly replacement level. The formula is as follows: Stuff = EqK9 * 6 – 1.333 * (EqERA + PERA) – 3 * EqBB9 – 5 * EqHR9 -3 * MAX{6-IP/G),0}

His stuff score was 16 (which is good, but not great) last year. Basically, Perez stuff is good but you would be more impressed if you just looked at his K while brushing aside his walks.

by Sokojoe on Feb 3, 2009 5:18 PM EST up reply actions

i suppose thats better

but the key difference i have is that i separate stuff and command. and while i am the first to admit that oliver’s command is bad, at best, i feel like his stuff while clearly diminished from his sub 3 era season, is still damn good.

for the record, this is just one of those situations where if the #‘s aren’t backing up what i see with my eyes, i look at the #‘s as faulty (because trying to quantify the nebulous idea of “stuff” into a single number isn’t exactly as natural as OPS and the like)

by Rob Castellano on Feb 3, 2009 7:37 PM EST up reply actions

I'm with you

when they introduced the stat they actually called it “stuff” with the quotations in order to point out the intrinsic fault with trying to quantify a qualitative attribute. Like I said, it’s all about how you want to label “stuff,” either way is just as good as the other but both are limited. Under your method Daniel Cabrera had great stuff, under my preference Yusmeiro Petit had great stuff, but when other factors are considered, it becomes apparent they both suck. So, I completely understand your viewpoint and even agree with it, just putting out my viewpoint in order to give you something else to consider as well.

by Sokojoe on Feb 3, 2009 7:56 PM EST up reply actions

this is true

now lets hope we don’t ever have to bring up daniel cabrera when talking about oliver perez again.

oh and to clarify, i’m not trying to say that anytime there are #‘s that disagree with me, they’re automatically wrong. its just those clearly imperfect ones, the kind that might make you say “theres a stat for that?”. and basically most fielding stats.

by Rob Castellano on Feb 3, 2009 9:01 PM EST up reply actions

It's not easy to hit any pitcher

who throws the ball 5 feet outside every other pitch. I think we’re rehashing old debates here, but I get your point.

I won’t be one of these Rush Limbaugh types, rooting against a guy because I didn’t want to sign him, even though his success means Mets success. I hope more than anyone that he proves me wrong and lives up to 3 years, $36 million. Go Ollie!

by James Kannengieser on Feb 3, 2009 5:18 PM EST up reply actions

Word

by Sokojoe on Feb 3, 2009 6:38 PM EST up reply actions

Hey Ollie

Maybe if you treat EVERY game like a big game, you’ll win more of them.

" PLEASE! CHANGE THE PATCH! "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Feb 4, 2009 12:35 PM EST reply actions

Maybe if he did that, we'd be in a position where all his games late in the season weren't big and he could pitch some ACTUAL big games.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Feb 4, 2009 4:49 PM EST up reply actions

philosphical

But if those late season games are big, doesn’t it stand to reason that he should pitch well in them? Oh my! Then imagine his big game pitching in the playoffs. Whoo-hoo!

" PLEASE! CHANGE THE PATCH! "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Feb 4, 2009 5:48 PM EST up reply actions

In the immortal words of Mr. Kool-Aid Man...

… “Oh, Yeahhhh!”

by djbutler73 on Feb 4, 2009 12:52 PM EST reply actions

Thuggin' it

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Feb 5, 2009 12:06 AM EST reply actions

That's a GREAT picture.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Feb 5, 2009 8:12 AM EST up reply actions

That picture rules!!!

I’ll say it again good(Albeit inconsistent)young left handed pitchers arent exactly growing on trees and at a reasonable price…welcome back Ollie indeed.

by Ohpityme on Feb 7, 2009 8:15 AM EST reply actions

I agree, although he’s a bit erratic, when the guy is on, he’s money. Of course when he’s off, he can be dreadfully bad at times. Either way he’s made great strides since coming over from Pittsburgh, and I think it was the right decision to bring him back in, especially considering the lack of quality starters on the market.

WELCOME TO LOUD CITY!

by Mr Pappagiorgio on Feb 7, 2009 9:40 PM EST up reply actions