Jose Reyes Gets Picked Off

by Eric Simon on Feb 24, 2009 8:00 AM EST

(click to embiggen)

The x-axis represents minimum stolen base seasons for individual players. For example, '0' includes every player season ever, '10' includes every player season with at least ten stolen bases, etc. The y-axis represents the frequency of pickoff, which is just times-on-first)/times-picked-off. I roughly estimated times-on-first to be 1B+BB+HBP, which doesn't include times reach on error or catcher's interference, etc., but it's close enough for funk. The pickoff stat I used might include times picked off of bases other than first, but those occur so infrequently as to render their inclusion almost meaningless. It doesn't include pickoffs that result in the player being tagged out at second since those are counted as times caught stealing.

The red line is the frequency with which major leaguers since 2000 have been picked off first. The blue line represents the same exact thing with the exclusion of Jose Reyes seasons.

What's clear is that Reyes gets picked off a lot. That the lines diverge as stolen bases increase is not surprising. If we already grant that Reyes gets picked off more often than the average player, his elevated pickoff rate will be weighted more heavily as the relative population size decreases (i.e. many fewer players have stolen 60 bases in a season than have stolen 30 or 20 or 10. Case in point: there have only been nine total 60+ stolen base seasons this decade and three of those were by Reyes himself). None of this is to say that Reyes is a bad baserunner or a bad base stealer, but it does illustrate that he may be a tad cavalier about the value of having a runner on first base versus no such runner.

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Out of 9?

Eric -

I don’t think statistically this shows anything. If Reyes is responsible for 3 out of 9 of the 60+ SB seasons, literally 1/3 of the total, and the other 6 seasons on average had fewer pickoffs, I believe statistically that could be a result of chance. I wouldn’t read much into it.

I assume Reyes draws a lot more throws over to first than almost anyone else.

by spaley1 on Feb 24, 2009 8:58 AM EST reply actions

Agreed

For 60 SB. He also gets picked off more than the league at 55, 50, 45, 40, 35, 30, etc. Not alarmingly so, and this isn’t meant to be groundbreaking by any means. It’s just visually interesting to me because I’m somewhat bothered by the general fact that pickoffs aren’t counted in CS and are rarely considered to be a part of the stolen base picture, period.

by Eric Simon on Feb 24, 2009 9:19 AM EST up reply actions

pickoffs

should definitely count against stolen base %, I think. I actually thought they already were. Interesting.

by cjmulrain on Feb 24, 2009 9:58 AM EST up reply actions

They do and they don't

As I mentioned above, when a pickoff results in the player being tagged out at the next base it does count as a caught stealing. A pickoff at the retreating base doesn’t.

by Eric Simon on Feb 24, 2009 10:12 AM EST up reply actions

I disagree

The difference I see is intent. When you are caught stealing, the clear intent is to advance a base. A pickoff often occurs as a result of a secondary lead or trying to get a better jump on a potential ball in play. In my mind these speak to two different skills most often possessed by the same type of player.
That is why they are scored differently depending on where the out is made and where the ball is delivered.

by Reg Dunlop on Feb 24, 2009 11:02 AM EST up reply actions

intent

what about hit and runs where the hitter misses the pitch? The intent wasn’t really to steal the base, but it counts as a CS. Same for missed squeeze plays.

by cjmulrain on Feb 24, 2009 11:39 AM EST up reply actions

Damn you, logic!

by Eric Simon on Feb 24, 2009 11:48 AM EST up reply actions

The intent is still to advance via base running

There is a clear risk/reward factor when stealing a base or advancing on missed pitches that doesn’t happen when you are retreating to a base. When you get caught stealing you are risking getting thrown out against the reward of moving closer to scoring. When you get picked off all you are trying to do is get back to the same position you were in prior to the play. In the best case scenario you are no better off then you were before. That has to be considered and why I think CS and PO should be evaluated differently.

I look at this the way I look at the IBB vs. the pitch around. They are evaluated differently because even though it is often the clear intent of a pitcher to walk a batter by pitching around, there are possible risks and rewards that you don’t get with a true IBB.

Both should be taken into account when you look at a players overall base running efficiency. But as far as I’m concerned these are two separate things involving different skills and decision making, and should be looked separately.

by Reg Dunlop on Feb 24, 2009 12:40 PM EST up reply actions