Talented NL East Shortstops

by James Kannengieser on Feb 25, 2009 12:48 AM EST Comment 9 comments

The five starting shortstops of the NL East are an impressive bunch. The top three conjure memories of the A-Rod/Jeter/Nomar trio circa 1999, albeit with different skill sets. Here are their 2008 runs above replacement, comprised of Fangraphs WAR components plus Baseball Prospectus's baserunning stats. I tried to match each player to his team color, so my apologies if the graph isn't so easy on the eyes.

Player	Offense	Defense	Position	Playing Time	Baserunning	RAR
Hanley Ramirez	46		7	23	3	79
Jose Reyes	26	-1	7	25	7	65
Jimmy Rollins	13	14	6	21	2	56
Yunel Escobar	4	2	6	20	3	35
Cristian Guzman	6	-2	6	20	-2	29

The NL East boasted the three top shortstops in all of baseball last season, and five of the top seven in the NL. Here is a brief look at each heading into the 2009 season:

Hanley Ramirez, Marlins, age 25

Ramirez was behind only Albert Pujols and Chase Utley in WAR this past season, and somehow wasn't in the top ten in NL MVP voting (neither was Utley). Given Pujols and Utley's injury concerns, there is a strong possibility that Ramirez will be the most valuable position player in baseball in 2009. However, CHONE's defensive projections aren't kind, as he's pegged at -11 for the upcoming season. If he reverts to his awful 2007 defensive showing, there's a chance he'll change positions in the near future.

Jose Reyes, Mets, age 25

For all the flack Reyes catches because of his recent September swoons, he's been one of the best all-around players in baseball since 2006. Only Ramirez has been a more valuable shortstop during that span. One concern is the 158 games per season he's averaged since 2005. Hopefully this doesn't catch up with him anytime soon. As exciting as his stolen bases are, I think all the running he did in 2007 and 2008 was atleast partly to blame for his poor showing down the stretch. Putting the reigns on Reyes's running game might not be a bad move early in the season.

Jimmy Rollins, Phillies, age 30

Public enemy #1 for many Met fans, Rollins's home run power surge during 2006-2007 looks kind of fluky given his HR/FB% during that span. Even if his offense declines in the coming years, he'll still be a force on the baseball diamond because of his consistently excellent defense. I'd be thrilled with a .200/.300/.325 line from Rollins, but the projection systems peg him at about .280/.340/.460.

Yunel Escobar, Braves, age 26

Given his career minor league line of .294/.367/.411 and solid fielding ability, Escobar looks to be a valuable player at a premium position for years to come. He doesn't do anything exceptionally well, but he does a lot of things decently well. Kind of like a poor man's Barry Larkin. Marcel and CHONE project a wOBA in the high .340's for Escobar, with about 40 extra-base hits.

Cristian Guzman, Nationals, age 31

Guzman's career has seen its peaks and valleys. Just look at this graph of his year-by-year wOBA:

In 2008, his xBABIP per Peter Bendix and Chris Dutton was eighteen points lower than actual BABIP, so he was probably a bit lucky. Jim Bowden might have been wise to work out a trade for some pitching and sell high on Guzman given the shortstop's unpredictable performance. Then again, the Nationals depth at shortstop is not too impressive.

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Comments

It really is amazing at the depth of talent in the division

I assumed 3rd base would be like that a couple of years back but Cabrea was traded/moved positions, Zimmerman has been hurt/kind of disappointing and Pedro Feliz.

by Sokojoe on Feb 25, 2009 1:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Haha

Pedro Feliz. Did you just type his name and realise nothing else needed to be said!? :-)

by deadspy3 on Feb 25, 2009 4:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"As exciting as his stolen bases are, I think all the running he did in 2007 and 2008 was atleast partly to blame for his poor showing down the stretch. Putting the reigns on Reyes's running game might not be a bad move early in the season."

I have wondered this often. It has seemed to me that Reyes has a habit of pooping out in the last third or so in the season, and I’ve often wondered if few days off + tough position + running all the damn time in a league where the peers he’s compared to don’t is the culprit.

But I’ve never really seen anyone else say that until now, so I was wondering if I was alone.

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on Feb 25, 2009 2:30 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I definitely think that's a part of it

though stealing and going all-out from day 1 is a big part of Reyes’ game. I think it’s a tricky balance, to try to get him to slow down a little early in the season w/o him losing some of his impact.

by cjmulrain on Feb 25, 2009 8:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's a combination of all of those factors, I think

As cjmulrain says below, going all-out and stealing is a big part of his game so it’s a slippery slope. Maybe a few more days off for Reyes, Wright, Beltran wouldn’t hurt this season.

by James Kannengieser on Feb 25, 2009 9:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Question

what does the position line mean? I thought it was a positional adjustment, but since they all play the same position, how come some of them are 6’s and some are 7’s?

by cjmulrain on Feb 25, 2009 8:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

It also factors playing time

Like, it doesn’t make sense to give Alex Cora a +7.5 position adjustment for playing 40 games at SS while giving Reyes the same adjustment for playing 160 games. The numbers on the chart are also rounded to nearest whole number, and Reyes got a +7.4 adjustment.

by James Kannengieser on Feb 25, 2009 9:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs