Should Duaner Sanchez Make the Team?

by James Kannengieser on Feb 26, 2009 12:00 PM EST Comment 5 comments

From April-July 2006, Duaner Sanchez was, on the surface, an excellent relief pitcher. Sporting a 2.60 ERA on July 30th, 2006, he seemed poised to hold down the 8th inning job for the likely NL East Champs. Then he hailed the wrong cab in Miami. Injuries caused by the accident ended his season, and he missed all of 2007 as well. Sanchez's return in 2008 was not impressive, as he posted a 4.32 ERA and was rarely used in September. With a report saying that he may be cut or traded if he doesn't impress this spring, some might be wondering if he can ever repeat his 2006 showing. Looking deeper, it appears he already repeated his 2006 performance - in 2008. Let's look at each season:

Year	IP	xFIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP
2006	55.1	4.31	7.16	3.9	0.49	.263
2008	58.1	4.34	6.79	3.55	0.93	.285

His peripherals are comparable, except for home run rate. However, Sanchez's home run to fly ball % (HR/FB) in 2006 was lower than his career average, so his xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching using a normalized HR/FB) is similar both seasons. Additionally, his BABIP in 2006 seems lucky, when compared to his career BABIP of .289. Sanchez turned in similar performances in 2006 and 2008. The major difference in ERA looks to be a function of luck. Projection systems predict that he'll improve slightly in 2009, but it's too optimistic to expect much more than he provided in 2008.

To cut or not to cut?

It might not be a bad move to cut him, given that the Mets would only have to shell out $421,875 of his annual $1,687,500 salary if they do it by April 1st. This would open up a spot for a power arm like Bobby Parnell or Brian Stokes, who also happens to be out of options. The Mets should give Sanchez the benefit of the doubt though, and atleast allow him a chance to earn a roster spot with a solid spring full of 90+ mph fastballs.

Poll

What would you do with Duaner Sanchez?

Cut him

41 votes

Keep him

93 votes

Ask me again on April 1st

187 votes

321 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

one more key factor:

if anyone remembers, in ‘06 this guy was the king of inducing a DP to get himself out of a jam. if you look at the #’s, he induced 1 DP for every 19 batters faced, the 2nd best percentage in baseball. IMO this was a lucky statistic, though it made some sense as every pitcher on this list sports a hard breaking pitch, for duaner it was his nasty slider. the problem is his slider doesn’t bite like it used to and probably never will. his same ratio in ’08: 1 DP for every 85 batters faced.

this is the key for me with sanchez; even when he was having success early last year, he never got his stuff back. his fastball lived around 87-88, his slider is now a frisbee with no bite and he has little to no command in the strike zone. its time to give up hope he’ll return to ’06 form.

give him a chance to earn a spot this spring but don’t hand him anything like last year, if he gets outperformed by parnell or stokes or even rocky cherry then cut him.

by robcast23 on Feb 26, 2009 12:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

They might as well keep him and see how he performs. They can always DFA him later and bring up Parnell or whoever. The $1mil they could save shouldn’t be a deciding factor. Especially for Omar. If he’s willing to spend $2mil on Alex Cora, he can spend a few bucks to see what Duaner has left in his tank.

by tm on Feb 26, 2009 1:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Good write up James

I’m surprised xFIP has the season as so close. Robcast hinted at this but instead of looking at DP, I think these numbers explain why I’m so suprised xFIP was so close.

……………..LD……GB……..FB%……FIP
2006………13.2…..52.3……34.4……3.78
2008………25.4…..43.6……30.9……4.30

Significantly less ground balls, less fly balls and way more line drives, simply put, the dude was getting crushed last year, which makes sense considering he lost 3 MPH on FB from 06 and movement on his other pitches. Considering he missed an entire year and had major surgary that isn’t common for baseball players, I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. But considering that his 06 was lucky, if he can’t get his 08 fastball (89.8) to look more like 06 (93.2) I have no problem cutting him.

by Sokojoe on Feb 26, 2009 4:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I am tempted

to give him the benefit of the doubt after that photo…

by deadspy3 on Feb 28, 2009 5:15 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Give Him A Shot.

Although I don’t think Duaner would be good, you have to look at what he did in 06 and give him a chance. Give him the benefit of the doubt that he really has improved, and if he has, then good. We need a guy like Duaner in our bullpen so a normal Duaner would be amazing.

by tommygmets86 on Feb 28, 2009 2:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs