NL East WAR Projections: Starting Rotations

I used the projected starting rotations from Baseball Prospectus's depth charts and WAR was calculated using Sky Kalkman's spreadsheet. For innings pitched and ERA values I averaged the Bill James, CHONE and Miner projections available at FanGraphs. None of those systems projected Kenshin Kawakami so I just used PECOTA's.

Aa_2009_nleast_starter_war_projections_medium
(click to embiggen)

I'm assuming here that Redding wins the last rotation spot and, while that's far from guaranteed, having Freddy Garcia back there won't change this outlook all that much. The Braves' rotation is set and the Phillies' is basically as well (going with Chan Ho Park or J.A. Happ over Kendrick won't make much of a difference), and the good news is that a bunch of computers think the Mets' rotation is the class of the division by about a win.

Tim Hudson is probably going to miss all of 2009, but if he were healthy right now the Braves might have the best rotation in baseball. It's worth mentioning, though, that if Hudson weren't on the shelf the Braves probably wouldn't have picked up Lowe and Vazquez this offseason.

Redding would probably be the Nationals' third-best starter right now if he hadn't bolted for New York. Lannan had a nice 2008 and Olsen might surprise you, but Manny Acta's bullpen is going to be awfully busy this year. Meanwhile, Florida has a bunch of young arms -- Nolasco should be quite good -- so there's some decent upside tempered by a recent history of so-so-ishness.

The Mets have a pretty nice looking rotation: they've got an ace, three solid middle guys and a back-end innings-eater. Any of Maine, Pelfrey or Perez could turn in a great season or a below-average season, while Santana should once again be among the league's best starters.

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