NL East WAR Projections: Starting Rotations

by Eric Simon on Feb 27, 2009 8:00 AM EST Comment 28 comments

I used the projected starting rotations from Baseball Prospectus's depth charts and WAR was calculated using Sky Kalkman's spreadsheet. For innings pitched and ERA values I averaged the Bill James, CHONE and Miner projections available at FanGraphs. None of those systems projected Kenshin Kawakami so I just used PECOTA's.

(click to embiggen)

I'm assuming here that Redding wins the last rotation spot and, while that's far from guaranteed, having Freddy Garcia back there won't change this outlook all that much. The Braves' rotation is set and the Phillies' is basically as well (going with Chan Ho Park or J.A. Happ over Kendrick won't make much of a difference), and the good news is that a bunch of computers think the Mets' rotation is the class of the division by about a win.

Tim Hudson is probably going to miss all of 2009, but if he were healthy right now the Braves might have the best rotation in baseball. It's worth mentioning, though, that if Hudson weren't on the shelf the Braves probably wouldn't have picked up Lowe and Vazquez this offseason.

Redding would probably be the Nationals' third-best starter right now if he hadn't bolted for New York. Lannan had a nice 2008 and Olsen might surprise you, but Manny Acta's bullpen is going to be awfully busy this year. Meanwhile, Florida has a bunch of young arms -- Nolasco should be quite good -- so there's some decent upside tempered by a recent history of so-so-ishness.

The Mets have a pretty nice looking rotation: they've got an ace, three solid middle guys and a back-end innings-eater. Any of Maine, Pelfrey or Perez could turn in a great season or a below-average season, while Santana should once again be among the league's best starters.

Poll

Whose starting rotation would you prefer?

Mets

347 votes

Braves

25 votes

Phillies

23 votes

Marlins

8 votes

Nationals

2 votes

405 votes | Poll has closed

1 recs | Comment 28 comments | Share

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Comments

I voted

METS

by HotChipWillBreakYourLegs on Feb 27, 2009 8:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I voted Santana

…plus any 4 random other guys.

"It's Father's Day today at Shea, so to all you fathers out there, Happy Birthday." -- Ralph Kiner

by dissento on Mar 1, 2009 8:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think the problem with our rotation

And really our entire team is how top heavy it is.

by Gina on Feb 27, 2009 8:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

If you look at it, though, Redding is projected to be the best fifth starter.

And unlike last year, we have depth in our rotation. Garcia, Niese, Livan, Stokes, and Figueroa are all capable of pitching when needed.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Feb 27, 2009 10:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't mean just the 5th starter

I mean the drop off after Santana is huge. Although I do think we have a bit of upside from our 2-4 starters that the other rotations don’t have. Overall I think the Braves have the most balanced/deepest, especially since I expect Campillo, Reyes and Hanson to take a lot of those 5th starts Glavine is slated in for.

by Gina on Feb 27, 2009 11:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

nice use of the stacked column graph type

Helps to visualize what could have been with DLowe…

by mmxii on Feb 27, 2009 9:13 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yes, I love the stacked columns with labels.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Feb 27, 2009 9:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not to nitpick, but didn’t the Nats just release Odalis Perez for no-showing at camp? The awful get awful-er.

by tm on Feb 27, 2009 9:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Can you share the number of IPs for each rotation?

All will probably go much deeper than five guys over the course of the season.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Feb 27, 2009 9:36 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

Though this was intended to strictly compare the top-five.

by Eric Simon on Feb 27, 2009 9:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

One would imagine the sixth through whatever starters won't provide too much value above replacement level, but yeah.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Feb 27, 2009 10:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

As context, the average rotation is about 12 WAR.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Feb 27, 2009 9:37 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

who's voting for the braves?

come on!

HELLO HELLO MR WILPON. WE WANT THE MANSION NOT THE CONDO.

by kendynamo on Feb 27, 2009 9:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Better question:

Who voted for the Marlins? Does Mrs. Loria read this site?

by Eric Simon on Feb 27, 2009 9:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Even better question:

Who’s voting for the Phillies?

by BobbyV_Incognito on Feb 28, 2009 11:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

x2

I really can’t think of any reason to vote for them over us or the braves. At least I guess with the Marlins someone could make an upside argument or something.

by Gina on Feb 28, 2009 11:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

also

is there not someone in the Mets organization who couldve made a graph like this and shown it to Omar pre-Lowe’s initial offer sheet? if there is, is Omar just ignoring it? sorry to beat this dead horse but imagine how much computer love our rotation would have if perez and lowe’s bar chunks were switched.

regardless, now that we have perez back for 3 years i am on his side and will root and cheer and make supportive hand gestures in his favor while cursing and disparaging and making obscene gestures as lowe.

HELLO HELLO MR WILPON. WE WANT THE MANSION NOT THE CONDO.

by kendynamo on Feb 27, 2009 9:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I will be making those same gestures toward any fool wearing a

~~Phillies~~ Scumbags or ~~Braves~~ Stinky Southerners jersey.

" Rebecca Gomez-Diamond. Will you marry me? "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Feb 27, 2009 9:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This is the complete opposite of an objective poll.

BUT I LIKE IT ANYWAY! I definitely agree with Maine being in the 3rd spot instead of Perez. For all of the Projection Stats people, would someone mind providing a nice summation (in the form of a graph) that displays what the actual results are versus what was projected?

I would like to see how well the projections PECOTA / CHONE / WAR etc., actually meet actual results. I’m not asking for all of the teams in MLB, just for the METS.

" Rebecca Gomez-Diamond. Will you marry me? "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Feb 27, 2009 9:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs