2009 Player Preview: Fernando Tatis

by Sam Page on Feb 9, 2009 8:00 AM EST

When listing the Mets needs prior to 2007, "retired third basemen" probably ranked near the bottom, somewhere between "El Duque's other foot" and "basketballs." Still, Omar wanted to complete his collection of '03 Expos, Fernando Tatis wanted to build another church, and a deal was made.

Then, after one and a half years in New Orleans, 33 homers, and 33 shuffle-steps across minor league home plates, Fernando Tatis assumed leftfield for the Mets, eventually joining Daniel Murphy in a platoon. He finished with a .297/.369/.484 line, one of the more pleasant surprises of the Mets' season.

Next year, he probably won't repeat that line. His plate discipline won't permit another .290 average. Citi might also cause him trouble; Hittracker shows 7 of his 11 homers last year being "just enough" or "lucky." Minaya claims Tatis and Daniel Murphy will platoon in left, and hopefully Tatis will get the short-end of that platoon. Regardless, Tatis could be a useful righty of the bench, and maybe lightning strikes twice.

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The Mets Still need a LF

I’m concerned about the Tatis and Daniel Murphy platoon. I think Tatis will have a down year and pitchers have figured out Murphy. This will leave a huge hole in the lineup. With the pitching priorities taken care of, the Mets need to bring in a power hitting LF. I’m on the Manny bandwagon.

by kerelcooper on Feb 9, 2009 8:45 AM EST reply actions

I'm also concerned

Tatis will regress, but I’m not going to assume that pitchers have “figured out Murphy” without seeing it first. Maybe HE’s figured out THEM cue ominous music

by HotChipWillBreakYourLegs on Feb 9, 2009 10:24 AM EST reply actions

I'm still holding out for Dunn, Abreu, or even Manny.

And then in this fantasy of mine, Daniel Murphy plays 2B. And Ramon Castro stays healthy the whole year and starts. And Oliver Perez has a breakthrough season. And Ryan Church reverts to pre-concussion form. And Jon Niese eventually wins the 5th starter job during the season. And F-Mart is called up halfway during the year.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Feb 9, 2009 10:33 AM EST reply actions

'NANDO

CAPSLOCK=DISABILITY ACCOMODATION. THANK YOU.
RE: TATIS IN LF
I SEE FEW PEOPLE RECOGNIZING THAT HE HIT 23 HR IN ‘08 12 IN AAA & 11 AFTER RECALL. ALL WITHOUT ANY SPRING TRAINING PLAY. AS A 34 YO LF HIS AGE & NL EXPERIENCE SHOULD CERTAINLY BODE HIM WELL IN COMPARISONS TO THE 37 YO IBANEZ WHO’LL BE FACING NL PITCHING EXCLUSIVELY FOR THE FIRST TIME. ANOTHER INTERESTING COMPARISON RARELY MADE IS THAT TATIS’ FAVORITE OPPONENT, CHAN HO-HUM PARK COMPRISES 50% OF THE PHILLIES’ OFFSEASON UPGRADES ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIOED 37 YR OLD IBANEZ.
PERSONALLY, GIVEN MY DRUTHERS I’M ONE OF A POSSIBLE MINORITY THAT WOULD PREFER TO SEE OMAR P/U ABREU FOR RF (ESP WITH OVERHANG OVER WARNING TRACK IN RF POTENTIALLY REDUCING “WALL SHOTS”). MOVING CHURCH TO MORE NATRURAL LF IN TATIS PLATOON & ALLOCATING MURPH TO BUFFALO TO FIND HIS TRULY BEST POSITIONAL CALLING. I FULLY ANTICIPATE TATIS TO ONCE AGAIN SNEAK UP ON BOTH OPPONENTS & MET FANS WITH ANOTHER PRODUCTIVE SEASON.

by METS62FAN on Feb 9, 2009 10:56 AM EST reply actions

Tatis vs. Park

12 plate appearances, 3 singles, 2 HR, 2 BB. .500/.583/1.100. Not bad, though small sample size and all that. Completely missed the news that the Phils had signed him.

by JoshNY on Feb 9, 2009 12:30 PM EST up reply actions

I think it's safe to say Manny isn't an option

Because of the luxury tax if for no other reason. As far as Tatis I’m really not sure what to make of him. I think the regression most projection systems have for him are too harsh but that might just be because I’m baised and hoping for the best.

Also Abreu’s defense is horrible, I really can’t see any reason to want to move Church out of right field just to move Abreu into it.

by Gina on Feb 9, 2009 11:00 AM EST reply actions

just out of curiosity

how horrible is abreu’s defense, especially compared to tatis/murphy?

and also, if it’s comparable (on the surface, i would guess abreu’s defense would be at least a little better than 2 converted infielders’), wouldnt it make a little sense to bring in abreu for a 1 year, $6 mil deal? he did his .296/.371/.471 last year with 20 HR and 100 RBI. i would hazard a guess that’s significantly more production that we will get out of tatis/murphy.

"You know I am only teasing. I love you gals out there -- always have." - Keith Hernandez

by OSUmets on Feb 9, 2009 11:05 AM EST up reply actions

I'm not saying don't bring in Abreu

I’m saying it makes no sense to bring in Abreu and put him in rf and move Church over.

But as for him and Murphy’s defense I don’t know, the problem is there’s not much data on Murphy in the outfield because he spent most of his time in the minors and the infield, but from what I understand in the like less than 300 inning sample size, he was a plus fielder in left field. According to chone projections, even with the horrible offensive line he’s projected to have, Murphy, if his defense remains average would be worth 1.2 wins, where as Abreu would be worth 1.5ish.

And then there’s the problem that 6 million per that may be out of our price range, considering how close we already are to the luxury threshold and the fact we’re supposedly trying to move Castro’s 2.5 million to save money. (Hence why some people get so upset about even small overpays like Cora and Redding.)

by Gina on Feb 9, 2009 11:22 AM EST up reply actions

good point

“I’m saying it makes no sense to bring in Abreu and put him in rf and move Church over.” – i couldnt agree with you more.

i didnt realize how close we are to the luxury tax threshold. i thought we had a little more wiggle room than that. and i’m surprised that abreu would only be worth .3 wins more than murphy.

"You know I am only teasing. I love you gals out there -- always have." - Keith Hernandez

by OSUmets on Feb 9, 2009 11:29 AM EST up reply actions

Well with Murphy it's kind of iffy.

Like I said there’s a very small sample size for Murphy’s defense so if he ends up being less than average this his value is going to fall. On the other hand because of his age it’s possible he could learn to be an average/above average fielder at the position. And Abreu’s defense, I assume, is also being evaluated/projected for right field so I’m not sure what kind of affect moving him to left field would be expected to have on his defense.

Personally I wouldn’t be against bringing in Abreu if I thought we could afford too. Although according to the Boston Globe, via metsblog, it’s been reported he could sign for as little as 1 year 3 million, if that happens I hope we’re at least involved.

by Gina on Feb 9, 2009 11:34 AM EST up reply actions

i agree

at this point, abreu in left is preferable to murphy/tatis. with abreu, we know we’ll be getting some decent hitting production in left. that’s better than the risk of LF being a black hole of production if both tatis and murphy do not live up to last year’s numbers, which is very possible.

as for defense, we can always just pray.

by englishgrey on Feb 9, 2009 11:37 AM EST up reply actions

offense from LF

will be even more important because of the relative black holes we have at 2B and C. if tatis or murphy perform below expecations, that would leave us with very little or no production from almost half of our lineup, unless castillo and schneider/castro perform miracles a la loduca and valentin.

"You know I am only teasing. I love you gals out there -- always have." - Keith Hernandez

by OSUmets on Feb 9, 2009 11:48 AM EST up reply actions

Abreu's defense

Fangraphs lists Abreu as a -43.3 in right. His last 5 seasons, in order: -11.3, -6.5, -15.6, -4.2, -25.5.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Feb 9, 2009 9:25 PM EST up reply actions

LUXURY TAX THRESHOLD

CAPSLOCK=DISABILITY ACCOMODATION
PRESENTLY WE’RE APPROX AT 143M IN PAYROLL. THE 2009 LUXURY TAX THRESHOLD IS 162M, UP TO 170M IN 2010, 178M IN 2011. THAT ISN’T THE ISSUE. WITH CONCERN OVER ABREU’S DEFENSE, CENTERED AROUND HIS WALL ALLERGY, I PROPOSED HIS TAKING RF OVER LF SINCE THE WARNING TRACK IN CITI’S RF IS OVERHUNG BY THE TERRACE SEATING, ELIMINATING, I WOULD THINK, A NUMBER OF PLAYS “UP AGAINST THE WALL” SINCE THEY’LL BE “IN THE SEATS” WHILE THE METS LFers LATELY HAVE NOT BEEN GG CALIBER IN EVANS, MURPHY, TATIS, ALOU, FLOYD. HOW BAD MUST ABREU SUCK TO MAKE YOU YEARN FOR THAT COMPILED ‘D’? CHURCH PLAYED MOSTLY LF FOR NATS.

by METS62FAN on Feb 10, 2009 9:37 AM EST reply actions