Make-The-Mets-O-Meter: Week 3 - Batters

by Eric Simon on Mar 11, 2009 8:00 AM EDT

This is the third week of spring training games and the Mets' bench picture is starting to take shape.

Player		Comment
Michel Abreu, 1B		Four games and just nine at-bats, Abreu is simply taking up space until the Mets inevitably send him packing for Buffalo.
Marlon Anderson, UT*		Should spring training stats dictate personnel decisions? Possibly not, but Marlon is hitting .421/.421/.526, is in The Best Shape Of His Life™, and is probably a lock to make the opening day roster at this point.
Robinson Cancel, C*		With the catching depth chart looking like Schneider->Castro->Pudge, Cancel should just keep himself in "shape" until someone gets hurt.
Jose Coronado, IF		Heh. .176/.222/.235 in 17 at-bats, he'll be lucky to wind up in Triple-A.
Nick Evans, OF*		Nick is making the most of his spring playing time, hitting .296/.406/.519 with five walks (two strikeouts) and three extra-base hits.
Andy Green, 1B		Hasn't been terribly impressive so far, and with Cora, Murphy and Anderson all capable of playing second base, the odds certainly aren't in Green's favor.
Bobby Kielty, OF		Hasn't been drawing walks this spring. .563 SLG is nice, but it's a small sample mirage: two singles, two doubles and a homerun in 16 at-bats.
Rob Mackowiak, OF		Only ten at-bats this spring, Mackowiak will have to do something soon to distinguish himself from the pack.
Fernando Martinez, OF*		Getting his last few swings in before reporting to minor league camp.
Ramon Martinez, IF		0-for-9.
Angel Pagan, OF*		Well, he's out until May.
Jeremy Reed, OF*		Hitting .280/.357/.400. Not great, but it's probably a battle between him and Sullivan at this point.
Rene Rivera, C		The good: .625 SLG. The bad: just eight plate appearances so far.
Cory Sullivan, OF*		Pagan's injury had to brighten Sullivan's day. Sully's hitting .364/.462/.364 with four walks and no extra-base hits.
Josh Thole, C		Three walks and three hits in nine plate appearances.
Jose Valentin, IF		He's getting a lot of playing time, but has just one extra-base hit -- a double -- in 23 at-bats.

Key:
= Chance of making the Mets is unchanged.
= Chance of making the Mets is going down.
= Chance of making the Mets is going up.
* = player on 40-man roster

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Marlon Anderson, position unknown

professional pinch-hitter

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Mar 11, 2009 8:03 AM EDT reply actions

i think with Cancel

the coaching staff should specify exactly which type of shape in which this desire Cancel to stay. Non-pear shaped, for example.

And if Marlon Anderon does indeed make the mets, i suppose I will lay off him for a little while, and hope and can somehow cobble together a decent season from the bench. but i will be watching him.

HELLO HELLO MR WILPON. WE WANT THE MANSION NOT THE CONDO.

by kendynamo on Mar 11, 2009 9:27 AM EDT reply actions

"round" is a shape!

by JoshNY on Mar 11, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions

Assuming they carry 11 pitchers (most likely, I would assume, to start the season given the rash of off-days), that leaves 6 bench spots open. Giving spots to Cora, Castro, Anderson, and Tatis seem like givens.

That leaves two spots for five guys: Evans, Sullivan, Reed, Mackowiak, and Kielty.

Evans could obviously benefit from another year in AAA more than the other three, so he’s gone. You probably take one from Sullivan and Reed-they’re really both the same player: good defensive players who are light hitters and bat lefty. Reed probably gets the nod because he’s got a little more speed, and is younger.

So it’s down to Mackowiak and Kielty for the final spot, and I’d say it goes to Big Red. Mackowiak’s best asset is his versatility, but you’ve really got everything covered with this bench. Kielty’s been hitting the ball hard when I’ve seen him thus far this spring, he’s a veteran player who offers some pop in a righty bat off the bench.

Now, if Manuel chooses to go with a 7-man bullpen, Kielty’s the last one out.

Only question is finding the seven guys. With Duaner Sanchez out, we’re pretty short on bullpen depth.

It looks like there really aren’t too many givens in the pen, outside of K-Rod and JJ Putz. If Redding isn’t the 5th starter, he’ll be the long man. If he does, that might go to Brian Stokes, who probably makes the roster either way. Throw in Sean Green and Pedro Feliciano, and we’re at 5, maybe 6. Now there’s one spot left, assuming Redding makes the rotation, and if not, I think we’re set. The front-runners for the last spot would seem to be Muniz (who sucks), Parnell (who should be in AAA) and a slew of others-maybe Darren O’Day (no idea), Casey Fossum (who has looked good, but a pertty crappy history) and dare I say Nelson Figueroa (why not)? It would be nice to have another lefty arm, and Joe Beimel is, somehow, still around. It would be foolish not to try and sign Beimel.

So in summation:
(Redding), K-Rod, Putz, Feliciano, Green, Stokes, Beimel
+
Cora, Castro, Tatis, Anderson, Reed, Kielty

by DevonEdwards on Mar 11, 2009 10:10 AM EDT reply actions

"Assuming they carry 11 pitchers"

My guess is that the Mets will carry 12 pitchers on Opening Day (as they did last season, five starters and seven relievers, leaving just five bench spots, four of which are already (likely) filled by Cora, Castro, Tatis and Anderson.

I think you’re right that Kielty makes the team if Jerry Manual only carries six relievers.

by Eric Simon on Mar 11, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions

Isn't it Omar's decision how many relievers the team carries?

I agree that they will carry 7 relievers, and I think that’s the right decision.

by James Kannengieser on Mar 11, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions

I think Jerry almost certainly gets a say in who stays.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Mar 11, 2009 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree

But I think two of those guys will be one of Garcia/Redding/Hernandez as a sort of swing-man.

by Gina on Mar 11, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree w/ Kielty and think

he makes it even with 12 pitchers. I see the roster looking like this:

Rot:
Johan
Pelf
Ollie
Maine
Redding/Livan/Garcia/Niese/Other

BP:
K-Rod
Putz
Green
Feliciano
Stokes
Villone
Robertson(?)/Redding (if not 5 starter)

Villone is the 2nd left and the long man if Redding is the 5th starter or in extended spring. If Redding is the 5th starter or in extended spring Robertson(?)(maybe O’Day or Muniz) is the last man in the pen.

Pos
Schneider
Delgado
Castillo
Wright
Reyes
Murphy
Beltran
Church

Bench:
Tatis
Anderson
Cora
Castro
Keilty (this was Pagan’s spot to lose, until he got hurt)

I think that unless Sullivan or Reed is out of options they bring Keilty north for his righthandedness, which is sorely needed for the bench. Castro can’t PH because they won’t burn their backup catcher and Cora and Anderson are LH, that leaves Tatis. With Delgado, Church and Murphy’s spots available, I see Tatis starting pretty much every game against a lefty (not a lot for Delgado, but I think Jerry’s going to sneak him some days off early this year) and probably some other games. On those days that leaves the mets with no RH pinch hitting options. Now I certainly would have preferred Pagan because he also brings some DEF to the table, but that option is shot. The other option is to keep Sullivan or Reed and only carry six pitchers since Villone can act as the long man as well as being #2 LHP. If Redding is not the starter and doesn’t open in extended spring they have to carry 7 though.

by mets81 on Mar 11, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't see how they can leave Reed and Sullivan off

Then who’s your “defensive” replacement/back up centerfielder. With tatis and Castro why give the last spot to another righty.

by Gina on Mar 11, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions

I get your point

About the need for a Def replacement, Church is average in RF and Beltran is going to play everyday, so the D replacement is essentially for LF. Since that person is almost-never going to actually get a start, I don’t think the (at most) 2 innings is really valuable enough to deprive your bench of a right-handed bat. And is the defensive upgrade even going to be enough to pull Murphy/Tatis/Church if the game is not out of reach in one direction or another?

With respect to Castro/Tatis are there why another righty argument – Castro will not be used as a pinch hitter, they can’t risk blowing their backup catcher (who’s the emergency catcher? Tatis? Cora?), and against all LHP Tatis will be starting, on those days the Mets have NO RH pinch hitter to hit for: the Pitcher’s sport, Murphy/Church, Castillo. On the otherhand, the mets are set with LH bench players because Anderson and Cora will hardly ever start, leaving them for PH duty everyday. Additionally when Tatis starts they’ll have three LHs on the bench to PH.

It seems trivial, and its a good sign for the mets that the argument is whether the 25th guy should be LH or RH, but I would say the value of having another RH to pinch hit outweighs the value of having a D upgrade sub for LF.

by mets81 on Mar 11, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd rather see

Evans and Reed myself. I think Green is a lock alongside Feliciano, Putz, K-Rod. Stokes should be there. It’s not a bad idea to try to steal Beimel now as he is an effective 7th inning guy, but really between DeSalvo, O’Day, Fossum that should cover it.

by deadspy3 on Mar 11, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd rather

See Evans in AAA so he can hit everyday and maybe lessen his platoon splits. He’s young and I think it would be a shame to have him sit the bench most days in the majors when he could play everyday in Buffalo.

by mets81 on Mar 11, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Long time reader, first time poster

What Kielty has lacked in on-base ability, he has made up for with power. Not drawing a walk in that amount of time is indeed concerning but he’s shown consistent pop. I wish I could get LD/GB/FB stats for spring training because it seems to me that he’s hitting mostly warning track material.

On a final note, Nick Evans and Josh Thole are two reasons to be excited about our farm system. Evans needs to bring his average up and Thole, his catching ability.

by TheBigStapler on Mar 11, 2009 10:44 AM EDT reply actions

Well

Let’s not get too excited about spring stats. Sure, Kielty’s shown power, but we’re talking about exactly three extra-base hits. He has historically been a low-power, high-walk guy and I suspect he would revert to that given a larger sample of at-bats.

by Eric Simon on Mar 11, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Marlon

.421/.421/.526 sounds like a lot of singles, no walks, little power. (8/19 with two doubles.) I haven’t been watching the games, is he hitting the ball well or is he getting lucky bounces? Because I mean, two fewer hits and his line is an unremarkable .316/.316/.421. As TheBigStapler mentions, at the very least it’d be interesting to see the LD/GB/FB breakdown. We’ve been down this road with Marlon before, is all I’m saying.

Nick Evans drawing walks makes me happy. I continue to believe that he can be a useful MLB player.

by JoshNY on Mar 11, 2009 11:42 AM EDT reply actions

Nick Evans makes my head hurt

His stats are just ridiculous, although they’re not as impressive when you neutralize them, but scouts seem to be consistently down on him.

by Gina on Mar 11, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Whoops

My comment below is about Evans, not Marlon Branderson.

by deadspy3 on Mar 11, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I'm still not sure why scouts seem pessimistic about Evans

I guess maybe it’s because of plate discipline? Evans walked a fair amount in 2007 but less so in 2006 and 2008. But Murphy hasn’t really ever drawn a ton of walks either (other than doing so fairly well in his time in the majors last year), and in any case that’s not generally the kind of thing scouts worry too much about. Evans has hit fairly comparably to Murphy at the same level (more or less – Evans played a full season in 2006 at single-A Hagerstown, while Murphy only played 25 games split between three different lower-level teams after finishing college that spring) in the minors each of the last three years, and is a full year younger. Each of them also improved his OPS steadily from 2006 to 2007 to 2008, except that Murphy put up the same OPS after being called up to the big club (exactly the same .870 as he had in Binghamton, actually), while Evans’ MLB numbers were significantly off from what he did in AA (.926 in Binghamton, .707 with the Mets). But again, he’s a year younger, and I can’t imagine he’s the only rookie who’s ever struggled in the majors upon being called up ahead of schedule due to other players’ injuries.

Something I always have trouble finding: were Evans’s L/R splits in the minors? I guess scouts might be concerned if he’s always whooped lefties and never been able to hit righties.

by JoshNY on Mar 11, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions

minorleaguesplits.com

has platoon splits and splits by month and all that kind of stuff. they also have defensive metrics, using total zone which isn’t the best but it’s better than nothing, and spray charts. And you can neutralize the stats by luck and park factors.

by Gina on Mar 11, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions

hmm

Evans’ splits are pretty significant, OPS 1.107 against LHP and .841 against RHP in AA in 2008. Part of that was a really high BABIP against LHP though.

Even so, the .841 against RHP isn’t significantly worse than Murphy’s .850 against LHP, just that Evans has the really big spike against LHP and Murphy doesn’t have a corresponding one against RHP. But an even split isn’t necessarily a good thing – I mean, would you rather have a guy who’s pretty good against RHP and pretty good against LHP, or a guy who’s pretty good against RHP and really awesome against LHP?

by JoshNY on Mar 11, 2009 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions