Monday Frozen Applesauce
by Joe Budd on Mar 2, 2009 10:23 AM EST
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PrintI hope that everyone on the East Coast is enjoying a day at home today after last night's storm. I know that every Mets fan is breathing a small sigh of relief after Johan Santana was given a semi-clean bill of health. Let's hope that this isn't a repeat of Church's concussion.
Around Port St. Lucie
Talk about a roller coaster. We went from this to thinking of a replacement to phew.
Mets Geek offers up part one of an introduction to the Mets' Non-roster invitees. I really hope that things aren't bad enough that we have to see Nelson Figueroa again.
Mike Piazza, coaching a Italian team playing the Mets on Friday, talked in a meeting with reporters about a return to MLB as a coach. Wasn't the knock on Piazza always that he wasn't a gung-ho leader type? He was always leading by example, not necessarily through communication. That seems like a prerequisite for coaching to me...
Joe Beimel? Will Ohman? How about Ron Villone.
A mixed weekend of exhibition games. Since my last post, the Mets went 1-2, with a blow out loss and win on the weekend a ferocious comeback that fell short on Friday. Livan Hernandez pulled ahead in the horse race for the fifth starter, not necessarily due to his performance, but because his competition a) hasn't thrown a pitch yet; and b) gave up four runs in two thirds of an inning. That's not to say that Hernandez wasn't sharp. He threw two perfect innings, striking out one and looked sharp. The dark horse candidate, Jon Niese, got knocked around on Saturday in two innings of work (2 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 2 K).
There are some grumblings in the blogosphere against the WBC. It does seem to take some of the excitement out of Spring Training.
Carlos Beltran is really, really good. Somehow, the Mets had the best defensive outfield last year with a complete black hole in left field and no definite right fielder.
Around the NL East
The Jim Bowden saga has finally ended. No word on a replacement yet. Smiley Gonzalez will haunt Bowden's dreams. Going against his reputation, Bowden's career was ended not by an outfielder, but by a shortstop.
The One That Got Away made his first start on Saturday.
Adam Dunn = the Dude? Dude, that's just your opinion, man.
You think the Mets' fifth starter situation is bad? The Phillies are considering Chan Ho Park for their rotation.
Braves' new import Kenshin Kawakami was strong in his debut.
Around MLB
Eek. 1 for 9 with 8 Ks. That's Andruw Jones' Spring so far.
Doug Mientkiewicz has landed with the Dogers. I'm still disappointed he didn't work out for the Mets. I guess I just envisioned a new Keith Hernandez.
MANNY ALERT!!!!!!!! Dodgers and Manny are about $1.5 million apart.
Adam Eaton quickly lands with the Orioles.
And finally, Juan Cruz finally has a home. Kansas City signed him for 2 years, $5.5 million with a third year club option. The Royals will forfeit their second round pick to the Diamondbacks.
Philadelphia News
Devil goalie Martin Brodeur put up his second shutout in his third game since returning from injury as the Flyers lose to New Jersey 3-0 over the weekend.
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I always get pumped up by spring training because it means real baseball is just around the corner. In my opinion, there is every reason to get a little excited about that.
The WBC does nothing for me because all it does is make me paranoid about injuries in the pursuit of some new thing that people are trying to sell me as a thing that matters for some reason.
'Oh yes, I know all about that duty-of-a-citizen stuff. It doesn't go. There are exceptions to every rule, and this was one of them. When a man risks his liberty to come and root at a ball-game, you've got to hand it to him. He isn't a crook. He's a fan.'
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Mar 2, 2009 10:55 AM EST up reply actions
I think
I would like the WBC a lot more if it were in November instead of Spring Training. It just seems silly the way it is now.
The timing certainly is odd
But as much as anything, I’m annoyed by the decision to create a brand new tournament and use the word “classic” to describe it.
Initially (this year) I was intrigued about the WBC
But now, I’m basically apathetic about the whole endeavor. So many players deciding to drop out, jump in, then back out again. Who can keep up? Who wants to? Upon hearing of Johan’s desire to play in the WBC, I was livid. There’s just too much of an opportunity to get injured in an event that means so little as opposed to an event in which a player is paid so handsomely for an event that literally means the world to players and fans alike.
I’m sick of Steve Phillips whining about national pride. Hey Steve, suck a cactus! Fans and the ownership of MLB teams have a lot riding on the line already during the regular season and here he wants players playing in some event for ‘supposed’ national pride. Please.
" Rebecca Gomez-Diamond. Will you marry me? "
by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Mar 2, 2009 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
I love the world baseball classic
Or at least I love it last time it was on and I was super excited for this year, until people starting talking more and more about injuries. Then what happened with Santana, and can someone explain to me why he was even allowed to push himself to come back the mets should have shut him down completely or something, basically scared the s***t out of me and now I’m worried Reyes or Wright or Beltran are gonna do something to themselves to cause them to miss more games than we can afford them to miss, and I’m not sure we can afford for them to miss any. Never mind just the extra fatigue on their bodies before the season starts. If any one of those 4 is affected adversely because of the World Baseball Classic it would probably have a huge impact on our season.
I hope this never happens but
It is interesting (frightening) to think of what we would do if Santana was lost for an extended period of time
Also
Furthermore, with new revenue streams from their new ballpark, the Mets will be in a position to take advantage of the bad economy that prevented many teams from spending as usual on free agents this offseason.
I keep seeing fans saying similar things like this, talking about mid-season salary dumps we could trade for, but it seems like the Wilpons not wanting to go over the tax makes this untrue right?
Maybe
The Mets are still quite a bit short of the $162 million luxury tax threshold for 2009 so even if that were their tipping point they would still be in a position to pick up some salary mid-season.
Do you know how much we're short?
I’ve heard a lot of varying answers but from what I understand it’s less than 10 million.
Not sure if James's spreadsheet is up-to-date
But it looks like $15-$20 million. It changes a bit if any of these minor league contracts become major league ones.
Is that the lt payroll or the regular payroll though
From what I understand lt salary is calculated differently. According to this site it’s:
Payrolls are calculated from 40-man rosters and include average annual value of multi-year contracts; health and pension benefits; clubs medical costs; insurance; workman’s compensation, payroll, unemployment and Social Security taxes; spring training allowances; meal and tip money; All-Star game expenses; travel and moving expenses; postseason pay; and college scholarships. Not including salaries, the above usually totals about $10-$15M
Right
The AA spreadsheet had them at $136 million plus $10 million for the rest of the 40-man (some are already on that spreadsheet), etc. They’re still $15 million under. If we’re conservative then they’re still $10 million under, which is plenty with which to acquire a player or two during the season.
I coud be completely reading it wrong.
But it looks like the 136 million is just based on players salaries for this year, not the average value of the contracts.
Gina
I updated the spreadsheet, click on sheet 2 to see an estimation of average value of the contracts. Note that this figure is a bit high since I just quickly went through the numbers using 09 as the first year of every contract. Therefore, Wright and Reyes especially, are a bit high. Better than nothing, no?
Awesome
Yeah the 150 is probably a bit high, probably by like 5-6 million. But even we say it’s like 144 million we’d still have to add in like 12 million, because each team pays 1/30th of whatever player benefits costs which according to that site a couple others is usually between 10-15 million per team, plus 2.5 million -whatever the brewers are paying Willie. Which would push us right up against the threshold.
This is random and wouldn’t count against this years total anyway but apparently we’re still going to be paying Bobby Bonilia from 2011-2014, which made me lol.
The spreadsheet is up to date, with the exceptions of some minor league deals
notably, Garcia and Livan due to their salary depending on where they end up. And please, don’t call me Shirley.
I find that
“The new revenue streams” thing is very overplayed. Yes, the ballpark opens up new revenue streams—at least in the short-term—but it also implies that the new money made is all profit. The Mets did have to finance a portion of the park themselves, which incurs new debt. On the whole, I don’t believe new ballparks lead teams to drastically alter their payroll structures, at least historically speaking.
A little yes, a little no:
I seem to recall writing up a similar thing a few months back. Anyway, there are mixed results if you look back at the past decade or so (not counting “new” Busch Stadium; all payroll data approximate):
- Detroit – 1999 – $37 million. 2000 – $58 million
- Houston – 1999 – $56.4 million. 2000 – $51.3 million
- San Francisco – 1999 – $46 million. 2000 – $53.7 million
- Milwaukee – 2000 – $36.5 million. 2001 – $43 million
- Pittsburgh – 2000 – $29 million. 2001 – $52.7 million
- Cincinnati – 2002 – $45 million. 2003 – $59.3 million
- Philadelphia – 2003 – $70.8 million. 2004 – $93.2 million
- San Diego – 2003 – $48 million. 2004 – $54.6 million
- Washington – 2007 – $37.3 million. 2008 – $55 million
'Oh yes, I know all about that duty-of-a-citizen stuff. It doesn't go. There are exceptions to every rule, and this was one of them. When a man risks his liberty to come and root at a ball-game, you've got to hand it to him. He isn't a crook. He's a fan.'
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Mar 2, 2009 11:45 AM EST up reply actions
Cos I'm an idiot.
I was thinking of the renovated Busch Stadium. Oops. For the record, then:
- St. Louis – 2005 – $92.1 million. 2006 – $88.9 million.
'Oh yes, I know all about that duty-of-a-citizen stuff. It doesn't go. There are exceptions to every rule, and this was one of them. When a man risks his liberty to come and root at a ball-game, you've got to hand it to him. He isn't a crook. He's a fan.'
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Mar 2, 2009 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
That's kind of true
Except payrolls fluctuate and generally rise from one season to the next. For instance, did the new ballpark actually change the Nationals’ payroll structure?
Well, their payroll did rise from $43.2 million by my figures to $59.7 million (I’m using MLB’s payroll data). But the median payroll increase from 2007 to 2008 was $6.5 million. The Nats did eclipse this figure significantly, but so did the Tampa Bay Rays (31.8 to 51.0). Payroll fluctuation is the norm in MLB.
And you know what? The Nats’ payroll in 2006 was $67.5 million. The team cut their payroll by nearly 25 million dollars the season before the new ballpark opened. You could make the argument that the Nats purposely cut the payroll in 2007 to make themselves look better in 2008 in the new ballpark. (Whoops! That one backfired.) Not sure if this is true across the board yet, but I’ll probably have an article up on it at MetsGeek later on in the week.
Glad to hear it
I’ve not exactly the time to do any thorough analysis on the subject, or at least anything beyond a cursory look at the numbers. Although the majority of clubs did not make any major increases in payroll from the last year of their old stadium to the first year of their new stadium, I’d be interested to see the spread over more years both before and after, not to mention whether it correlates to any actual improvement.
'Oh yes, I know all about that duty-of-a-citizen stuff. It doesn't go. There are exceptions to every rule, and this was one of them. When a man risks his liberty to come and root at a ball-game, you've got to hand it to him. He isn't a crook. He's a fan.'
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Mar 2, 2009 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
Mo Vaughn's Lunchbox 3/2/09
The snowy weather may look bleak to some, but to me, it’s the perfect excuse for one of my favorite winter treats, hot chocolate! But none of that powder packet stuff for me, I make my own home-made concoction. I usually start with 3 or 4 hershey bars in the microwave. Although, to be honest, I don’t like to wait for the bars to heat up so I usually just eat them right out of the wrapper. But they melt a little in my hand. So I guess it’s more like warm chocolate. LOL! Oh and I sometimes sprinkle the coco powder packets on the hershey bars. Skittles, too.
HELLO HELLO MR WILPON. WE WANT THE MANSION NOT THE CONDO.
When my metabolism was higher as a teenager
I would purchase a tub, vat, bowl (whatever you want to call it) of Cool-Whip, a 1/2 pound bag of peanut M&M’s and stir the M&M’s and Cool-Whip together. Then I’d put it in the freezer overnight and have a wonderfully fattening treat the next day. (I have no idea what the caloric intake of that treat was, nor do I want to be reminded).
Hot Chocolate – I’m a Swiss Miss w/marshmallows powdered drinker. With milk though, never water. Water and hot chocolate powder borders on sacrilege.
" Rebecca Gomez-Diamond. Will you marry me? "
by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Mar 2, 2009 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
Oh my this is uproariously funny!
I needed that. I just watched two hours of this show last night and exhausted myself by laughing so hard. Kool-Aid man’s brief appearances from time to time leaves me in stitches.
I prefer new Cool Hwip.
" Rebecca Gomez-Diamond. Will you marry me? "
by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Mar 3, 2009 1:34 AM EST up reply actions
Thanks JNY
Now I’m sure not to get any sleep. I had no idea a person could watch entire episodes on the computer.
" Rebecca Gomez-Diamond. Will you marry me? "
by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Mar 3, 2009 1:38 AM EST up reply actions
Yes...
…I’m that far behind. Just watched ‘Baby Not On Board’. (Probably pissed off the neighbors with my laughing). Night-Night.
" Rebecca Gomez-Diamond. Will you marry me? "
by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Mar 3, 2009 2:07 AM EST up reply actions
AND THEN SOME!
" (Stewie) Wait a minute. Germany is building WMD's? Then, why doesn't America go in there and kick their a$$e$? (Brian) I don't know. Maybe it's because they don't have any oil? (Stewie) Ohhhhhhh. Clap, clap, clap, clap, claaaaap. "
by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Mar 3, 2009 10:57 AM EST up reply actions
Wow.
What happened to Andruw Jones? I almost feel bad for him at this point.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
I don't understand the sudden downturn in production.
How do you go from being such a prolific offensive threat to virtually no threat at all in such a short amount of time?
" Rebecca Gomez-Diamond. Will you marry me? "
by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Mar 2, 2009 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
I think playing in turner/luck masked some of his decline
His line drive numbers have been declining for a while but for whatever reason, according to Baseball Reference, Turner Field was inflating offense a lot in the early 2000s, although it’s more neutral now and Jones had an extremely high % of fly balls leaving the park as homers.
So you take already declining skills, because of weight/age, particularly a pretty major decline in contact rates from last year to this year to a move to a stadium that, also for whatever reason was really deflating offense this year and also apparently inflates k rates which could explain the major slip in contact rates, and put them together and you get a “career” year of bad.
Really he’s probably not as bad as he was last year, although the fact he’s not exactly tearing it up in Arlington doesn’t help his case, but he wasn’t as good as he looked during some of his last years with the Braves either.
Received
Nicely done.
" Rebecca Gomez-Diamond. Will you marry me? "
by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Mar 2, 2009 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
Nice avatar "Roy"
" Rebecca Gomez-Diamond. Will you marry me? "
by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Mar 2, 2009 10:02 PM EST up reply actions
Chan Ho Park
…was actually not all that bad last year, according to Baseball Reference. He was hopeless for the 20 minutes or so that the Mets had him in ‘07, that’s for sure, but it doesn’t have me rolling on the floor with glee that the Phillies might pick him up for the back of their rotation. It’s not like he’s Jose Lima…
He may not be Lima,
but Lima can pass for his non-union Dominican counterpart. Given Chan Ho’s 4.18 BB/9 and his 12.6% HR/FB ratio, you can expect him to allow a lot more runs playing in that bandbox. He may not be completely awful though, given his groundball tendencies (2.00 GB/FB). Still, here’s hoping that he doesn’t come back and burn us after sucking so hard for us before.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Mar 3, 2009 12:24 AM EST up reply actions
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