The Tao of Ryan Church

by Mark Himmelstein on Mar 23, 2009 4:43 PM EDT

One of the lingering questions this offseason is "Which Ryan Church will we see?" That question refers to the red hot Ryan Church we saw before his second concussion last year, and the ice cold Ryan Church we saw afterwards. While the truth obviously isn't that cut and dry, and almost certain he will generally be somewhere in between those two incarnations, its an interesting question. A lot of us like to think that "Churchie" was on his way to a breakout season in his first season as a real full-time player. His defense was impressive, and he was just tearing the cover off the ball through May. So was this a legitimate breakout? Is it something we can expect to see Ryan repeat and sustain in the upcoming season?

2008

April: 94 ABs .319 / .390 / .497
May: 67 ABs .299 / .364 / .612
September: 86 ABs .209 / .299 / .302

Those are Church's monthly batting lines in 2008 for each month in which he had a at least 40 ABs. Obviously, looking at April-May and then September is like night and day, and the concussions clearly derailed his season. But if we repeat this same excercize for each of the previous three years, we find some rather telling data:

2005

April : 42 ABs .190 / .261 / .333
May : 61 ABs .377 / .406 / .508
June : 57 ABs .368 / .439 / .737
July : 46 ABs .239 / .308 / .370

2006

April: 41 ABs .244 / .380 / .659
August: 57 ABs .246 / .317 / .439
September: 43 ABs .302 / .367 / .581

2007

April: 88 ABs .284 / .394 / .500
May: 89 ABs .247 / .356 / .427
June: 88 ABs .239 / .280 / .352
July: 76 ABs .263 / .313 / .408
August: 86 ABs .291 / .340 / .447
September: 43 ABs .349 / .442 / .767

The fact is, Church has always been an incredibly "streaky" hitter. The variance between his good months and his bad months is about as large as you'll find with a major league hitter. In his good months, he looks like an MVP candidate, and in his bad months, he looks like he belongs in Triple A. His hot start to 2008 was hardly an outlier in this scheme. He's had hot stretches like that before (May-June 2005, April and September 2006, April and September 2007), and he's never been able to sustain them for more than a month or two at a time. He nearly always regresses, falling to a sub-.600 OPS for a month in both 2005 and 2007. Obviously, with the concussions, its impossible to know if he would have managed to finally sustain his hot streak in 2008, but looking at this, I have less faith than I want to.

The good news is two-fold. First, Church's glove will make him a worthwhile player to have around by itself. Even if he sees a prolonged slump, having him on the bench wouldn't exactly be a waste, he can likely play all three outfield positions and (eventually) provide some nice lefty pop in PH situations. The other good news is that his likely understudy, Jeremy Reed, is having an outstanding spring. With the third most ABs on the team to date (47), Reed is hitting a robust .426 / .491 / .617. He's shown more pop than the oft-injured March wonder that is Angel Pagan, and the fact that his SLG is more than .200 points higher than his career mark is a good indication that he's ready for a nice offensive showing this season. Even PECOTA sees Reed as being quite similar to Church, projecting the former for a .269 / .321 / .396 Weighted Mean batting line and .316 / .369 / .488 90th Percentile projected batting line, and the latter for .251 / .332 / .414 Weighted Mean and .292 / .375 / .496 90th Percentile. And on top of that, Fernando Tatis, a possible right-handed counterpart for Right Field, who is also having a good spring, is right in that same boat projection-wise. So Jerry Manuel will have some options here.

In this end, the onus here will likely wind up on Jerry's shoulders. At this point, even if he gets off to a hot start, a slump should be expected from Church as we get into warmer weather. It will be up to Jerry to recognize that if it happens, and take the appropriate action. Swapping his role with Reed's should be a very reasonable solution, though Tatis and Nick Evans might give Jerry a few options to play with. But unless Manuel can push some magic button that will turn Church into a consistent hitter, Jerry will need to be his toes and have a willingness to sit Church down when he struggles.

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.

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Comments

Honestly the difference between Church's good months and his bad ones don't seem any wider than typical.

Although that’s just based on my own recollections. Is there any readily available way to measure streakiness?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Mar 23, 2009 6:10 PM EDT reply actions

Looking at

some of the contemporary comps on Church’s PECOTA card (Geoff Jenkins, Mike Lamb, Termmel Sledge), you do see a similar level of variance in some years, but when you do its generally more stable, where there will be a more steady progression or decline, and you don’t see the same level of variance year to year. You don’t see nearly as often something like a 50 AB stretch of a 1.100 OPS followed by a 50 AB stretch of a .650 OPS.

You may be right, and maybe this is just the standard for fringe-average type players, but if anything, its more an argument that should temper expectations that were garnered in the first two months of 2008, which I think is a more commonly held perception of Church outside of Mets fans.

It would be interesting to try and develop a metric for “streakiness”. Really, aside from variance based on health, my guess is you’d generally find that “streakiness” is similar to “clutchness,” in that its difficult to find any stats that support it. But it would still be interesting just to get a sense of how a player might vary over the course of a season or a few months.

by Mark Himmelstein on Mar 23, 2009 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions

I was thinking the same thing

At this point, even if he gets off to a hot start, a slump should be expected from Church as we get into warmer weather.

I’m guessing warm weather months are June, July, August:
05 - June : 57 ABs .368 / .439 / .737
06 - August: 57 ABs .246 / .317 / .439
07 – June: 88 ABs .239 / .280 / .352
July: 76 ABs .263 / .313 / .408
August: 86 ABs .291 / .340 / .447

Really, Church had a poor June (88 ABs) and alright July 07 (76 ABs,) and he hit the crap out of the ball 05 June in 57 ABs. To look at the data and state, that “a slump should be expected…in warm weather” is questionable. Small sample sizes, good/alright months in the “bad months” and, as Sky mentioned, the data not appearing to be much differenent than other batters, leads to me to hope Manual doesn’t take proactive measures to sit Church during warm weather (June, July, August, games south of the Mason-Dixon, etc.)

by Sokojoe on Mar 23, 2009 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions

That was more a turn of phrase

meaning if he hits well early, its tough to see him sustaining it, just based on the way his career has arched so far

by Mark Himmelstein on Mar 23, 2009 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Its just as likely

he starts cold and gets hot eventually.

by Mark Himmelstein on Mar 23, 2009 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions

I really like the effort

but it still seems like a small sample size issue rather than evidence that he’s a streaky hitter. I mean Church has had a total of 167 ABs in June and July a piece over his career (weird it’s exactly the same.) Along those lines, Jeremy Reed has had 219 ABs and 151 ABs in July respectively. Reed’s OPS for those months are .662 and .538 compared to a .799 May and .731 Sept. Thus, either Reed is streaky too or maybe it’s because BA (Contact rate) doesn’t reach a .50 r-squared until perhaps 1000 PA.

by Sokojoe on Mar 25, 2009 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions

I know

It may just be the sample size, I wish I was better with graphing tools (I’m awful) but it just seems like such a huge discrepancy. Its not even like there are levels of consistency year-to-year. Its always the same type of gaps and it really pushes either end of extreme.

More than anything, the point I was trying to make that I got away from, was that we should really just temper expectations for Church, which a lot of people here probably already realize, but I figured it’d be a fun topic with Reed having a nice spring and all the competition for the corner spots.

by Mark Himmelstein on Mar 28, 2009 3:00 AM EDT up reply actions

Word

It was an interesting read all around and a valid main point.

by Sokojoe on Mar 29, 2009 1:23 AM EDT up reply actions

if he does exhibit streakiness

is it physical or mental?

Getting your skull cracked is an obvious physical explanation. But then is it the fear of getting hit again keeping him from producing? And that doesn’t explain the earlier seasons…

Just to be safe, Omar should get him to a head-shrinker who can talk him into fulfilling his potential and get him to keep a dream log. Or he should borrow Giambi’s “slump-busting” thong.

"If you bat [Luis] leadoff instead of sixth, say, you are taking away 18 plate appearances each from Reyes, Beltran, Wright, Delgado and Church and handing them to Castillo." John Walsh http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-new-york-mets4/

by hotspur on Mar 24, 2009 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions