The 2009 Mets Fantasy Baseball Guide
by Sam Page on Mar 25, 2009 10:31 AM EDT
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PrintIn honor of the Amazin' Avenue league drafting Thursday and the Battle of the Mets Blogs Friday, I've compiled a guide to each relevant Mets fantasy value. Thankfully, the Mets only constitute most of the valuable players in fantasy, so I won't be giving away all my secrets.
1. Jose Reyes SS- After all the focus on Jose's overworking himself in 2007, it was no surprise his stolen base totals dropped. Given Jerry Manuel's aggressive style, expect those numbers to rebound in 2009. I also believe Reyes' power could be on the upswing, despite Citi. Put it all together and I'm calling for a .300-20-120-60-65 line from Reyes. I'll take that over Hanley Ramirez's illusory 40-40 potential any day of the week.
2. David Wright 3B- Go ahead and write him in for .310-30-100-100-20. There's upside in that projection, however, since his BA was too low last season and his power upside may have not yet been reached. If you like security from your first round pick, there's no one safer than D-Wright.
3. Carlos Beltran OF- Last year Carlos hit more line drives and fewer fly balls. The result? Higher average and fewer homeruns. Whether those adjustments carry into 2009 remains to be seen, but it doesn't really matter. He's a very safe pick with an established level of 30-20 production. And there's upside: he's only two seasons removed from his 40 HR campaign.
4. Johan Santana SP- Johan seems like a perfect candidate to avoid early in drafts. His strikeouts declined last year, and thus, his ERA should have been higher. Plus, he loses the intrinsic value of being a 220+ K pitcher. But wait. Remember what The Hardball Times' Fantasy Focus HNIC, Derek Carty, told us:
One thing we need to remember about Santana is that, even though his peripherals dipped, Santana is one of the few pitchers in baseball who has shown the ability to control his BABIP and LOB% over a long period of time (although his LOB% in 2008 was too high even for his standards). Even if his peripheral ERA is 3.50 or something like that, his abilities outside of the big-three peripherals (K, BB, GB) that we ignore for most pitchers (because we assume they're league average) would push it down to 3.00. Santana is not like most pitchers and doesn't follow the same rules. That's not to say he doesn't follow any rules, they simply need to be adjusted.
Johan should be great as usual, but the Ks, the elbow, and cheaper pitchers will probably make me pass.
5. Francisco Rodriguez RP- Similar to Johan, K-Rod's lower strikeout rate is a reason to worry. If you don't value strikeouts in fantasy by now, you're doing it wrong. That concern, combined with the people who think 62 saves was all his doing, means K-Rod will probably be great, but way overvalued on draft day.
6. Oliver Perez SP- While Johan winning the Cy Young sounds nice, Oliver Perez may be the pitcher who benefits the most from Citi's dimensions. If he brings his walk rate down to his 2007 level, he could improve his fantasy number's drastically without actually improving. The WHIP is always painful, but don't be surprised if he posts an ERA around 3.50.
7. Carlos Delgado 1B- He went from fantasy irrelevant to 40-HR threat but how much of that was real? Check out this article on Delgado's breakout for a deeper investigation. The conclusion: it was lucky. If you think his wrist injury was the real thing holding him back, however, he might be a decent pick.
8. John Maine SP- People may be scared by his struggles in Spring so far, but I'm confident he'll recover his mechanics. I'm also convinced Maine's struggles last year were most injury related. If he's healthy, Maine could be a great value.
9. Mike Pelfrey SP- Pelfrey's more of a good pitcher than a good fantasy pitcher, but that doesn't mean he lacks value. He's dependent on his defense, but the Mets have a damn good defense. Assuming Reyes and Castillo rebound defensively too, there's a chance he, like Perez, could improve without pitching better. There's tons of anti-Pelfrey propaganda in fantasy circles so he could end up being undervalued. Monitor his strikeout rate this season, and if it picks up, he could be a good pick-up.
10. Daniel Murphy OF- The Daniel Murphy-means-business hype machine hasn't hit fantasy circles yet, but there's sure to be a handful of crazy Mets fans who draft him. If Murphy starts to spell Castillo at second, however, his value quadruples. Remember: he was nearly a 20-20 player in the minors, which is decent from an outfielder and pure gold from a secondbaseman.
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Delgado
Just read that analysis of Delgado. He guy did some create work crystallizing some numbers for Delgado but, on the other hand, he seemed to jump to conclusions he WANTED to jump to. I also find the formula of “True Batting Average” to be a little odd. How can you base it on “Projected Power” when that seems a little weird to begin with?
Re: tBA
Lunkwill Fook,
tBA isn’t based on “projected power,” it’s based on “expected” power. Given neutral luck, Delgado would have been expected to produce fewer home runs. Those fewer HRs are fewer hits that would have went towards his batting average.
Hope that clarifies.
Derek Carty
I still don’t get it though. How is counting the number of homeruns above 420 feet a prediction of power? I mean, a homerun is a homerun and, often, the distance is just a factor of luck. Furthermore, if tHR is measured by counting homeruns that went a certain distance only, how does that factor into true batting average?
My point is, all the numbers in general seem very similar from 2006 through 2008. Hell, 2007, a year Delgado truly was miserable throughout, seems statistically better or equal to 2006 or 2008. It doesn’t make sense to me, intuitively, how the .239 expected batting average makes any sense. Furthermore, since Delgado’s expected batting average in 2006 was only twenty points higher and, for that matter, his expected batting average in 2007 (again, the disastrous year) was 20 points higher than THAT, it shows to me there is some sort of flaw statistically in the analysis. Do I know what I is? Not really. But point to length of homerun to determine expected batting average seems like a good start.
by Lunkwill Fook on Mar 25, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Okay, I think I'm understanding some more after some extra careful reading....
So, basically, you’re saying in your article that his power numbers have pretty much stayed the same over the course of 2006-2008 except for a fluke in 2007 where his HR/FB% are absurdly low.
Got it.
Then you go into calculating tBA whose components are tHR (which is largely unchanged over the past three years) plus the Marcel BABIP and something else which I suddenly can’t remember but also went largely unchanged.
So, in essence, the doom and gloom concerning Delgado’s 2009 season pretty much all has to do with Marcel’s BABIP projection being twenty points lower than either of 2007 or 2008. I think THAT is what I need explaining.
by Lunkwill Fook on Mar 25, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Let's Start from the Beginning - tHR
Lunkwill Fook,
Let me start from the beginning. Forgive me if this runs a little long, but when you’re done you should understand completely.
First, you say that “a homerun is a homerun.” This is 100% not true. If you go down to your local Little League field and start hitting balls, you will find that you have a “maximum distance” that you can hit the ball (however far that actually is), and you will only hit a few that far. But because you possess the power to hit balls to your “maximum distance”, you therefore have the inherent power to hit balls shallower than that. Relating it to MLB players, those who’s “maximum distance” is well beyond the fences will be able to hit a few to that maximum distance and then scatter many more (at particular proportions that aren’t important to understand the theory) at shallower distances. Those who’s “maximum distance” is just a couple feet beyond the fence won’t be able to squeeze many over.
You also say “the distance is just a factor of luck.” This is actually not true. You won’t see Juan Pierre luck into any 500 foot bombs, but Barry Bonds could sure hit one. Luck is involed to an extent, though, but this is due mainly to weather, which tHR accounts for. tHR doesn’t just count HRs that go a certain distance, it adjusts the number of HRs that are expected to be hit based upon a player’s own unique distance distribution and inherent raw power.
tBA
As to how it relates to Batting Average, there are three main components of BA. As you know, BA is Hits divided by At-Bats (H/AB). For a ball to become a hit, the batter must make contact with it (i.e. not strike out), which we call Contact Rate. From there, we break contact down into Home Runs and non-HRs (or Balls in Play – BIP) since these are two distinct skills. So we have 1) the balls that can become hits and 2) what types of hits they are.
To calculate tBA, a hitter’s tHR total is substituted for his actual HR total. His BABIP (or the percentage of hits on balls in play — non-HR hits) is replaced by xBABIP. Actual BABIP is very unstable and prone to swings in luck, and xBABIP has been shown to be more stable and a more accurate representation of a hitter’s talent in this regard. Actual contact rate is used since it is a very stable stat to begin with.
Delgado
Finally, as to Delgado, his power has remained almost unchanged from 2006-2008 but he has experienced both good and bad luck during this time. His surface numbers over this period have never reflected his actual talent.
As to his tBA, at the time of the Delgado article, xBABIP had not yet been invented, so I was using Marcels BABIP (the best at the time). If I now switch to xBABIP, we get these values:
2006: .257
2007: .264
2008: .264
So, yes, that mBABIP is what was causing the drop, and this was due mostly to a somewhat down 2008 and heavy age adjustments. xBABIP takes a different approach entirely, though, and again, is more accurate. Delgado’s BA won’t be as bad as that article suggested, though at the time, it was the best we could come up with.
I can assure you there is no flaw in the analysis if you understand the underlying premise of it.
If you’d like to fool around with batting average and see how changing different stats affects a player’s BA, download this tool I put together here. Might help you understand things better: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/fun-with-batting-average/
Hope this has helped!
Derek Carty
Reyes
As much as I love Jose, I don’t think I’d pick him over Hanley for my fantasy team. But it’s a moot point because I already have Reyes and not Hanley.
explain
If a hitter had 70 HRs you’d take him as the first pick, I bet.
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
explain what?
in standard 5×5 mixed Yahoo leagues last year, Hanley was the 4th-ranked batter, Reyes was 8th. the 40-40 potential may be illusory but 33 HR and 35 SB are pretty excellent.
Not that I put any stock into those Yahoo rankings
but I expect Reyes to get 10-20 more steals and 5 more homeruns. I expect Hanley to decrease his HR and SB totals. That should close the gap in Yahoo rankings easily.
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
Why do you expect Hanley's HR numbers to decrease
I really have a hard time thinking of any reason to expect Hanley’s hr numbers to decrease so much, or Reyes’s to increase enough, for Reyes to end up with more HR’s than him. Let alone 5.
Not 5 more homers than Hanley, 5 more than last year
and I believe Hanley’s will decrease because of D.Carty’s work with tHRs
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
Not so much from a fantasy standpoint
But those delgado numbers in the tht article are pretty scary.
Also cosign to Josh NY. I love Jose but there’s no way I’d take him over Hanley in a standard fantasy league.
whats the battle of mets blogs friday?
and shouldnt all battles take place on SUNDAY SUNDAY SUNDAY!!!!!
HELLO HELLO MR WILPON. WE WANT THE MANSION NOT THE CONDO.
some head-to-head league I'm in
Amazin’ Avenue
- kranepool society
- Hot Foot
- Mets Merized Online
- 213 Miles From Shea
- Neon Stick Figures
- The Daily Stache
- The ’Ropolitans
- The Team to Beat
- Mets Lifer
- BrooklynMetFan
- pricedoutoftheciti.
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
i see cerrone is ducking you
too busy making sny studio appearances i suppose.
HELLO HELLO MR WILPON. WE WANT THE MANSION NOT THE CONDO.
I'm calling him out
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
Speaking of fantasy,
our league’s draft is tomorrow @ 7pm EST. We’re still slightly imbalanced, with 10 stat categories for hitters vs only 9 for pitchers. Unless there’s an outcry against it, I’m adding K/BB for pitchers to even it up.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Mar 25, 2009 9:17 PM EDT reply actions
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