The Bill James Gold Mine 2009

by Eric Simon on Mar 26, 2009 8:00 AM EDT in Stats Comment 12 comments

The new Bill James Gold Mine 2009 dropped on March 17 and it features unique stats and commentary on all 30 Major League teams as well as a ton of new essays by James. As with last year's edition, James sprinkles each chapter with "nuggets", which are short and often fascinating blurbs about a player on the team. Here are the nuggets from the Mets chapter, which will hopefully be enough to entice you to go buy this fine book.

Through the first three innings, the Mets were baseball's best team, and it wasn't even close: They were 23.5 games over .500, 10 full games better than any other team. From that point onward, they did a long, slow fade, holding fewer leads and facing more deficits each inning, ultimately finishing eight games over .500 and just short of making the postseason.
Jose Reyes led off 317 innings for the Mets in 2008 -- by far the largest number of leadoff innings in the majors. He was the Mets leadoff man, of course, and then if just happened that a lot of innings ended with Reyes due up next. Reyes also led the majors in times reached base leading off an inning (118), although not by such a wide margin.
The Santana twins (Ervin and Johan) both finished 16-7, and had nearly identical batting averages, on-base percentages, slugging percentages and OPS allowed:

Batting averages: .237 and .232
On-Base Percentages: .283 and .286
Slugging Percentages: .362 and .368

They allowed 23 homers apiece, struck out about the same number of batters. Johan's ERA was almost a run better (2.53 vs 3.49), but that doesn't track with any other category.
Johan Santana pitched a brilliant, must-win game on the penultimate day of the Mets' season, but he's always pitched well against the best. His ERA against teams that are better than .600 is almost as good as his ERA against teams that are worse than .400 (2.29 vs 2.24).
David Wright drove in Jose Reyes 42 times last year, the second-highest figure for a pair of teammates in the last six years. Only Gary Sheffield and Rafael Furcal reached a higher total -- Sheffield drove in Furcal 49 times in 2003.

There are more than a dozen featured articles throughout the book, including one called "The Ten Commandments of Sabermetrics". Here are a few of my favorites:

I. Thou shalt not bunt.
V. Thou shalt make no idol of the light-hitting middle infielder.
IX. Place thy faith not in veterans, when youth be available to ye.

Buy the book if you want the rest. You'll be glad you did.

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I like the bunt

Not all the time, but I think a manager needs to have players bunt frequently enough to keep opponents on thier toes. I don’t think it would take much – just the occasionals sac squeeze early in the season, a drag bunt or two by the speedy lead-off guy, etc. However, I think managers need to stop reflexively sending pitchers up to bunt.

"The people of Houston are spending money like oil's selling at $40 a barrel."

by IanB in MD on Mar 26, 2009 8:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

old school

It works better if you set it up by having the runner spike the 3rd baseman to limit his mobility.

"If you bat [Luis] leadoff instead of sixth, say, you are taking away 18 plate appearances each from Reyes, Beltran, Wright, Delgado and Church and handing them to Castillo." John Walsh http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-new-york-mets4/

by hotspur on Mar 26, 2009 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wonder what the SABR guys think about violence on the basepaths...

Spiking the 3rd baseman seems like a decent plan until the other guy does it to you!

"The people of Houston are spending money like oil's selling at $40 a barrel."

by IanB in MD on Mar 26, 2009 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought I read that in late game,

close score situations with certain batters up, it makes sense to bunt.

by Sokojoe on Mar 26, 2009 10:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

There are

certain circumstances where bunting makes sense, for sure. Bunting generally reduces your likelihood of scoring multiple runs but can be used effectively — depending on the batter’s hitting and bunting abilities — to increase the likelihood of scoring just one run.

Bunting with the pitcher usually makes sense because most pitchers are terrible hitters. Bunting runners from first and second to second and third is more useful than just bunting a player to second (in the former scenario you’ve effectively moved a runner from first to third).

James is making a generalization here, because most situations where you’re using a reliable hitter to move a runner to second at the expense of that reliable hitter making an out is not a smart play.

by Eric Simon on Mar 26, 2009 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Number One

So should the first commandment really be one which under many circumstances can be ignored? That doesn’t seem right. Because 5 and 9 seem like they are true more closely to 100% of the time than 1. Bunting still has a major place in the game. No-hit infielders and overpaid guys on the decline really shouldn’t.

by whynot on Mar 26, 2009 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gotcha

Now to make room for yet another annual, sorry David Foster Wallace, into the box you go.

by Sokojoe on Mar 26, 2009 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

James needs...

to send this memo to Beltran.

because most situations where you’re using a reliable hitter to move a runner to second at the expense of that reliable hitter making an out is not a smart play.

by DannyMetsGeek on Mar 26, 2009 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs