NL East WAR Projections: Infielders
Continuing our NL East WAR projection series, today we're going to take a look at the division's starting infields. Once again I've used Baseball Prospectus's depth charts to fill in the gaps of my pitiful knowledge of other teams' players; I've used Sky's awesome WAR spreadsheet to do what my fourth-grade math skills cannot; I've also averaged the projections available at FanGraphs for plate appearances and wOBA. And away we go:
Each bar traverses the infield from first base (bottom) to third base (top), and it really does give you a visual sense of how these players compare to one another. Isolate the purple sections and we can see that David Wright is the class of the third-basemen, nipping Chipper Jones by a small margin. Meanwhile, Hanley Ramirez is clearly the best of the shortstops.
Assuming good health, David Wright projects to be the most valuable infielder in the NL East at 7.1 WAR. Chase Utley projects to be the second-most valuable infielder at 6.9 WAR. He was supposed to miss a couple of months at the beginning of the season but it's looking more and more likely that he'll be ready sometime in April. Pedro Feliz, on the other hand, could be one of the worst, at least offensively (more on that below).
Another thing that stands out is how much positional adjustments can affect a player's value. Shortstops get a +.75 WAR adjustment to account for the relative strength of the position. Conversely, first-basemen get a -1.25 WAR adjustment, which makes sense intuitively because it's fairly easy to find one who is at least offensively competent. The graph incorporates these positional adjustments, so the result is Luis Castillo winding up only marginally less valuable than Carlos Delgado (2.5 WAR vs 2.3 WAR) because he gets a 1.5 WAR bump (+.25 for second base vs -1.25 WAR for first base).
I'll confess that there are a lot of problems with this graph. The biggest is probably that it doesn't include defense. This is my fault: Sky's spreadsheet allows for defensive WAR to be keyed in manually but I was kind of Fixed. I have plugged in defensive adjustments (rough estimates based on UZR from the last few seasons) as well as baserunning adjustments per Baseball Prospectus. This revised graph should more closely approximate player valuation than the original one I posted. The graph does account for playing time, calculating WAR based on projected plate appearances.lazy busy so I just skipped it. This penalizes the Phillies most of all because Utley, Rollins and Feliz are all good-to-great defensively, offset partially by Howard's dreadfulness. Overall, inclusive of defense the Phillies would have an even larger projected edge over the Mets and everyone else.
One potential problem is that I've included only projected starters, so the graph doesn't reflect the relative strengths of backups, so it winds up being a graph of staring infielders, not overall infielders.
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Comments
*Boos Utley, waits for reaction*
"One of the nice things about baseball is that there are no rules you can't break." - Jim Bouton
by Prince on Mar 5, 2009 9:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Dunno 'bout Utley's health...
…but what’s the over/under for games Chipper Jones spends on the DL? 40? 60?
by madisonmetsfan on Mar 5, 2009 9:32 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ditto
Does the projection account for a full season or does it take into account the fact that Larry Wayne will probably miss roughly a quarter of the season?
'Oh yes, I know all about that duty-of-a-citizen stuff. It doesn't go. There are exceptions to every rule, and this was one of them. When a man risks his liberty to come and root at a ball-game, you've got to hand it to him. He isn't a crook. He's a fan.'
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Mar 5, 2009 10:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It accounts for projected plate appearances
by Eric Simon on Mar 5, 2009 10:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, but that's just like your opinion, man
FACT: Chipper Jones is an old man.
FACT: The average July temperature in Atlanta is like 800 degrees Fahrenheit.
QED: Chipper makes fewer than his projected 520 PAs.
by mmxii on Mar 5, 2009 12:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What's your projection?
Take it, divide by 520, and multiply by the projected WAR on the graph (about five).
Whoila!
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Mar 5, 2009 5:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Great work.
batting helmets. batting titles. obp.
by Durelo on Mar 5, 2009 9:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Is Utley
really projected to be that much better than Wright and Hanley? I don’t see it. He’s turning 30 this year and is coming off an injury. Wright and Hanley are turning 26 and 25, respectively. I doubt Utley is going to be better this year than he was last year, while I think there’s a legit chance that both Wright and Hanley will be better. The last 3 years, Hanley’s been 5.3, 5.7, 7.7. Wright’s been 4.7, 8.0, 6.0. And Utley’s been 6.0, 6.9, 6.7 (and he was a 6.4 in ‘05). I think Utley has leveled off in the 6.5ish range. I’d be shocked if Hanley’s not at least a 6.5 WAR player, if not over 7. And Wright has just as much an opportunity to be the 8 WAR player he was in ’07 as the 6 WAR player he was last year.
by cjmulrain on Mar 5, 2009 10:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'm reworking the numbers a bit
Should be ready shortly
by Eric Simon on Mar 5, 2009 10:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Looking at the last three years and doing an eye-balled weighted average...
I see Utley at 6.5, Wright at 6.5, and Hanley at, drum-roll, 6.5.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Mar 5, 2009 5:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Pretty darned close
I had Wright at 7.1, Utley at 6.9 and Ramirez at 5.9 after I re-jiggered the whole thing.
by Eric Simon on Mar 5, 2009 9:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
what was Ramirez
pre-defensive adjustment? I love Wright and respect Utley, but Ramirez was better than both of them last season offensively and was close behind them 2 years ago, plus he’s younger. And it’s not like Dolphins Stadium (or whatever the hell they call it these days) is a hitters paradise, so he shouldn’t get hurt when adjusting for ballparks like Utley would.
by cjmulrain on Mar 6, 2009 9:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Updated
I reworked the graph, this time including defensive and baserunning adjustments. Unfortunately (for the Mets), the result gives the Phillies and even larger projected lead. That’s mitigated (somewhat) by the fact that Wright is now projected to be the most valuable infielder in the division, narrowly edging Utley 7.1 to 6.9.
by Eric Simon on Mar 5, 2009 10:35 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'm happy with these results
after all, I’d much rather brag about having better players than help the team win games
by cjmulrain on Mar 5, 2009 11:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Rollins vs. Reyes
Is it really that close? For all the Rollins bashing that we tend to do I thought the difference would be more significant.
by Reg Dunlop on Mar 5, 2009 10:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Defense bridges the gap
They’re both terrific baserunners but most fielding metrics rate Rollins as very good and Reyes as so-so (or worse). We can believe all we want that Reyes is a great fielder but until the numbers start bearing that out it’s just wishful thinking.
by Eric Simon on Mar 5, 2009 10:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He's had a good season, a great season, and a bad season
UZR can be pretty unpredictable over short spans, so this year could be huge in determining just how good he is. What projection number did you use?
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on Mar 5, 2009 11:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was generous
and gave him .25 fielding WAR. I didn’t use a defensive projection per se, just an eyeball projection based mostly on the last three years of UZR.
by Eric Simon on Mar 5, 2009 11:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
His bad season was last year, though.
And don’t Mets fans even think he was worse last year based on sight?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Mar 5, 2009 5:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
His defense was much better in the second half according to my eyes
I would like if stats could back up my eyes though
by Sokojoe on Mar 5, 2009 6:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No, he really was that bad in the first half
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on Mar 6, 2009 12:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well my eyes tell me
that if Rollins is very good than Reyes must be better than so-so. or something like that. I just refuse to believe that Rollins is that much better of a fielder than Reyes.
by Endys Game on Mar 5, 2009 4:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It shouldn't be that close, IMO.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Mar 5, 2009 11:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
looks about right to me ...
Phils and Mets have highest valued infields, Marlins and Braves are the second class citizens of the division and the Nationals are the shameful untouchables. A difference of two projected wins between us and the Phils isn’t anything that doesn’t get made up by our pitching strength, solid work, and some lucky breaks.
Good work Eric. I can’t wait to see the size of Beltran’s swath in the OF graphs.
by MordecaiBrown3 on Mar 5, 2009 12:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Nats
Wow, Adam Dunn’s stripe was a lot bigger before Eric redid the graph to include defense
by JoshNY on Mar 5, 2009 2:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Defense wins championships!
(I’m half kidding.)
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Mar 5, 2009 5:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think we can just distill that to
“winning wins championships”
by Eric Simon on Mar 5, 2009 9:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yes but what wins Champtionships??
That is what the Phillies have apparently so that must be what we want.
by Endys Game on Mar 6, 2009 11:06 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ritual sacrifice to Cthulu?
We don’t know that the Phillies haven’t tried it.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Mar 6, 2009 6:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm thinking thats why the traded for Matt Stairs...
I haven’t seen him in a while, you know…
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Mar 8, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs





















