Monday Applesauce

by Joe Budd on Mar 9, 2009 10:56 AM EDT

Welcome back to work everyone. Hope your weekend was slow enough, even though we were robbed of an hour. Here's some stuff you might have missed this weekend that will help keep you distracted today.

Around Port St. Lucie

It was a weekend of .500 spring baseball for the Mets with wins against the Cardinals and the University of Michigan, but also back to back losses against the Washington Nationals on Saturday and Sunday. The most important storyline in these games is the fifth starter spot, which continues to be a black hole. Freddy Garcia pitched two shut out innings and Tim Redding got shelled by Michigan, while Livan Hernandez was merely adequate against the Nationals. Are we going to get Pedro?

Brandon Knight replaces Mike Pelfrey as today's starter against the Orioles. The game will be broadcast on SNY and MLB.TV.

The buzz about Ivan Rodriguez coming to the Mets is picking up some steam, especially after his strong WBC performance to date. Carlos Delgado is vouchingfor him, while in the process throwing the current Met catchers under the bus. Pudge would be an upgrade over Castro, but is it really worth eating all that salary?

Crashburn Alley compares the Mets to the Phillies, giving the Mets an advantage with an ace pitcher, closer, set up man, third base, and center field. The Phillies win out with advantages at first base, second base, left field, defense, catcher, back of starting rotation, bench, and base running. No real arguments here, but baserunning and defense? Really?

The Mets could save 3/4ths of Duaner Sanchez's $1.7 million contract if they cut him before they break camp.

Angel Pagan's chances to make the Mets decreased this weekend after traveling to New York for an MRI on his sore elbow. Meanwhile, in Pagan's absence, Bobby Kielty is impressing Jerry Manuel.

Johan Santana pitched two innings in a simulated game over the weekend and says he is on pace for opening day.

Bill James ranks David Wright fourth behind Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, and Ryan Braun in 2009 runs created.

Jose Reyes would be willing to switch to second base to accomodate Hanley Ramirez for the Dominican Republic WBC team.

Happy Birthday Cookie Rojas!

Around the NL East

Beyond the Box Score takes an in-depth look at the value of the farm systems in the NL East. Florida and Atlanta are the class of the division with Washington badly struggling.

Jimmy Rollins tells fans to stop worrying about his health.

Florida's Andrew Miller is starting to show improvement.

The Braves bullpen is working through injuries, but could be awfully impressiveshould the cards fall properly.

John Mayberry Jr. is probably going to be a factor off Philadelphia's bench and Chan Ho Park and JA Happ are fighting it out for the fifth starter spot.

Here's a look at the Marlins' new ace pitching prospect, Chris Volstad. Beckett seems to think he's alright, that's gotta count for something.

Some injury notes from the Braves camp: Garrett Anderson is out a week with a pulled right calf, and Chipper Jones tweaked his oblique.

Around MLB

Vladimir Guerrero is 34, not 33.

Randy Johnson thinks he can pitch until he's 50. I don't doubt him. The man is a freak.

I refuse to read this article just because the headline is so absurd: "Price won't be here until he arrives".

The Red Sox nixed a return of Nomar.

Matt Kemp thinks he can put up a 40-40 season. LA doesn't do a very good job of hyping it's young talent. If this guy was in New York I'm sure you'd know a lot more about him.

The Brewers released Eric Gagne so that he can rehab in Florida.

There is a pitcher named Billy Buckner? AWESOME! Anyway, Ken Griffey Jr. got his first hit of the spring.

Wow, simply wow. Omar Vizquel caught an 11 foot anaconda in Venezuela.

The economy is hurting Spring Training attendance. This can't be a good sign for this year's regular season attendance.

Stat Fix

Here's a quick primer on some basic baseball statistics provided by Royals Review.

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Comments

no SB in wOBA

The Royals Review writeup helped me learn about wOBA (my new favorite stat), but it suggests wOBA includes SB. I submit that it does not.

http://www.insidethebook.com/woba.shtml

(0.72xNIBB + 0.75xHBP + 0.90×1B + 0.92xRBOE + 1.24×2B + 1.56×3B + 1.95xHR) / PA

NIBB = “non-intentional bases on balls”
RBOE = “reached base on error”?

Furthermore, I think wOBA should be pronounced so it rhymes like Jabba (the Hutt) and to a less extent, that yokel who pitches across town. How long until we get a park-adjusted value? That could possibly THE aleph-stat that G-d uses to choose who wins baseball games.

by hotspur on Mar 9, 2009 11:36 AM EDT reply actions

wOBA can include SB/CS

Fangraphs includes it. Statcorner does not.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Mar 9, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Mo Vaughn's Lunchbox 3/9/09

Just ‘watched’ Watchmen this weekend – great flick! I didn’t stay for the whole movie though because it was REALLY long and I got hungry right after the scene where the Horseshack guy is eating beans in the Owlman’s house. So I went home to eat some beans cold, just like Horseshack. I like eating beans because they provide two benefits, being both a magical fruit, AND good for your heart. TOOT TOOT!

HELLO HELLO MR WILPON. WE WANT THE MANSION NOT THE CONDO.

by kendynamo on Mar 9, 2009 12:12 PM EDT reply actions

I refuse to believe that Mo Vaughn ate only beans when he got home

'Oh yes, I know all about that duty-of-a-citizen stuff. It doesn't go. There are exceptions to every rule, and this was one of them. When a man risks his liberty to come and root at a ball-game, you've got to hand it to him. He isn't a crook. He's a fan.'

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Mar 9, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions

agreed

I bet it was franks and beans.

by hotspur on Mar 9, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Note Mo didn't say how much he ate.

For all we know it was a whole pallet. Or three.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Mar 10, 2009 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions

Pagan get heatlhy ASAP!

Please?

by Gina on Mar 9, 2009 12:19 PM EDT reply actions

I don't know, I kind of like Kielty.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Mar 9, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions

If Pagan doesn't make the team who's the back up centerfielder?

by Gina on Mar 9, 2009 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Isn't Reed supposed to be a pretty good fielder?

Not sure if he’s going to make the team, of course, but on the mets.com depth chart he’s listed just behind both Beltran and Church, and just ahead of Pagan, in both CF and RF.

by JoshNY on Mar 9, 2009 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions

He's supposed to be

But the metrics dont really back it up. He was awesome in 06, but well below average since then. Overall he’s been about average in cf, which is the same as Pagan, but I don’t really expect 2 back up outfielders to make the team, considering we already have Tatis/Murphy.

by Gina on Mar 9, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions

clearly Tatis is not playing any CF any time soon

by JoshNY on Mar 9, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions

I know but we were talking about Kielty

I actually forgot about Reed but either way I don’t see them carrying Reed/Pagan AND another outfielder.

by Gina on Mar 9, 2009 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, Tatis will probably be a utility guy.

1B, 3B, LF, RF. So we could still have him, Reed, and Pagan.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Mar 10, 2009 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions

That's too many bench players isn't it?

I’d imagine the bench would be something like

Murphy/Tatis
Marlon Anderson
Alex Cora
Ramon Castro
one of the outfielders

am I miss counting something?

by Gina on Mar 10, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Marlon's only on the bench in my nightmares.

Unless he’s in the lineup. Could be we’re going with only a 7-man bullpen.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Mar 10, 2009 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions

also

crashburn alley is a hack. whats the point of just matching up positions head to head without taking into account the number of expected innings played and the margin one position is better than another? eric already did a much better and simplier job showing the win values of each position throughout the entire division.

here is my equation for predicting 2009 FWIW VOLTRON + METS = 2009 NL EAST CHAMPIONS

Q.E.D.

HELLO HELLO MR WILPON. WE WANT THE MANSION NOT THE CONDO.

by kendynamo on Mar 9, 2009 2:30 PM EDT reply actions

Billy Buckner

I thought he was Bill’s son but I was wrong. Name is probably just a coincidence.

by JoshNY on Mar 9, 2009 2:32 PM EDT reply actions

I don't think it's that surprising the Phillies have an advantage defensively

Base running I’m not as sure on I wouldn’t be surprised either way, but I feel like we had a lot of base running issues last year but I don’t know if that’s just because of a few bone headed plays sticking in my mind.

by Gina on Mar 9, 2009 2:59 PM EDT reply actions

I'd be willing to grant the Phillies defense, but it should be close.

I’d be willing to grant the Phillies defense, but it should be close. And I assume the Mets also got shortstop, as no objective viewer with a brain could think Jimmy Rollins is better than Jose Reyes. And baserunning? Jose wins this for us outright, IMO.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Mar 9, 2009 5:14 PM EDT reply actions

an objective viewer with a brain

would recognize that Rollins did rate better than Reyes by (some? many? all? I’m not 100% sure) fielding metrics last year.

but, of course, would also recognize that these things do often vary significantly from year to year.

by JoshNY on Mar 9, 2009 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions

I think all

And by a huge margin. But it was also a major career outlier so I don’t think it’s likely he’ll repeat it. And Reyes had a pretty bad year compare to his recent seasons so more than likely I think they’re pretty close, with Rollins getting a slight edge.

But I don’t think squid was talking about defense I think he meant overall.

by Gina on Mar 9, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions

oh

in that case yeah, Reyes is better. but I guess you could reasonably argue that Reyes/Rollins is a push, which is what the article called it.

by JoshNY on Mar 9, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions

I did mean overall.

And I could just as easily say catcher is a push, considering Castro is the best catcher overall on both teams combined. And again, baserunning?

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Mar 9, 2009 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't think castro is the best catcher by any means

Lou Marson looks like he’s going to be very good. It’s just a question of when the Phillies bring him up, since they might want to push back his FA clock.

by Gina on Mar 9, 2009 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Marson

isn’t any great shakes. They can push his FA clock as far back as they want. He’s a groundball machine and he won’t ever have the bat Castro has.

by jasondg on Mar 9, 2009 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions

He won't have the power Castro has

But he’ll be a walk machine and get on base, something Castro doesn’t do and something that’s probably more valuable, play adequate defense and be able to go over 150 plate appearances without falling apart. I like Castro but I think I’d take Marson without thinking twice.

by Gina on Mar 9, 2009 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Go ahead, you'll be picking the lesser player.

Go ahead, check projections for those two. The only reason I could see one taking Marsons over Castro would be for injury purposes, or for the long term. But, if that were the case, we’d be winning shortstop without much difficulty, wouldn’t we? Honestly, the team’s refusal to think of Castro as anything but a backup is dragging this position down mightily.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Mar 9, 2009 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Injury purposes are kind of hugely important aren't they?

And I don’t see how that would affect short stop. I think it’s safe to say Castro hasn’t given us any reason to think he can handle more than 150 pa/300 or so catching innings without basically falling apart, I would take the slight downgrade, I really don’t think the downgrade offensively from Castro to Marson will be that huge if Marson can maintain similar obps in the majors, for over twice as much playing time.

by Gina on Mar 9, 2009 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions

I mean that sort of argument helps us in the Reyes v. Rollins debate.

Reyes is younger/never gets injured. So even with defense, which Reyes had a career low last year and Rollins had a career high, I’m sticking to saying Reyes beats Rollins 99% of the time. I’ll back off my catcher argument, but suffice it to say that IF Castro played a full year’s worth of catcher, I’d predict he has the best year of any catcher on both rosters.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Mar 10, 2009 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree about on your last sentence

But if you can IF about everyone. Castro is never going to be able to be a full time catcher, he’s barely able to be part of a platoon.

by Gina on Mar 10, 2009 2:26 AM EDT up reply actions

This entire debate is one big IF

I just don’t see how you can argue that a dude with 4 MLB atbats is better than Castro. I understand the points you’re trying to make, but catchers seem to have the toughest time breaking into the bigs. There have been quite a few heralded catchers who have crashed and burned upon reaching the bigs.

I also think the Reyes-Rollins debate got a bit silly as well.

Reyes: ’08 VORP: 62.6; PROJECTED ’09: 65.2
Rollins: ’08 VORP 44.4; 43.9

by SQUAD on Mar 10, 2009 8:47 AM EDT up reply actions

Check the projections for the two?

Don’t mind if I do. Via PECOTA. . .

Weighted Mean
Castro: 1.7 WARP
Marson: 3.0 WARP

10th Percentile
Castro: 0.3 WARP
Marson: 0.9 WARP

90th Percentile
Castro: 2.9 WARP
Marson: 4.9 WARP

CHONE does favor Castro’s offense by a small bit, but the piont should be made. You’re no idiot, Squid; I’ve seen you post before. But I don’t think you should be so quick to definitively dismiss someone as wrong for favoring Marson.

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on Mar 9, 2009 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Fair enough.

But check CHONE, Oliver, and ZiPS, for example. I think Castro has like 0.3 wRAA opposed to -0.3 wRAA for Marson, and I honestly think Castro plays adequate defense.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Mar 10, 2009 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions