Small Sample Size Alert - The Mets Pitching Staff

by James Kannengieser on Apr 13, 2009 1:15 PM EDT in Stats Comment 14 comments

Each member of the Mets pitching staff has made an appearance this season. Here is how they've fared according to the defense independent pitching statistic tRA (what's tRA?):

The rotation

Pitcher	Batters Faced	tRA
Johan Santana	50	0.95
Livan Hernandez	27	5.36
Mike Pelfrey	23	6.15
Oliver Perez	23	6.67
John Maine	18	9.65

The bullpen

Pitcher	Batters Faced	tRA
Bobby Parnell	16	3.57
Darren O'Day	14	5.25
Sean Green	13	4.14
J.J. Putz	12	2.82
Francisco Rodriguez	12	1.86
Pedro Feliciano	11	2.42
Brian Stokes	9	1.81

What does this tell us? Basically nothing, as only six games have been played. It's just a chance to discover or reacquaint ourselves with tRA as the season begins. Stats via Statcorner.

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Comments

the explanation on Lookout Landing made my head hurt

but I’m pretty sure that lower = better. In that case, why is Maine so bad? He pitched really well the other day, I thought. I know I’m gonna sound like a BBWAA member here, but any statistic where Maine’s first start was worse than Ollie’s doesn’t seem like a very reliable statistic to me.

by cjmulrain on Apr 13, 2009 2:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Go away, Joe Morgan

Maine suffers because of the two homers, poor GB/FB, and, I’m guessing, a poor LD%.

by jasondg on Apr 13, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah his ld rate was high

3 of his 12 of his batted balls were line drives, and 3 of his 8 balls in the air were line drives. Plus fewer k’s, a higher contact rate, and Ollie’s homer per fly ball was “high”, which I guess isn’t surprising since the game was in Cincy.

But like James K said it’s a one game sample size. Not really much to read into.

by Gina on Apr 13, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right, was just giving some color to the statistic

by jasondg on Apr 13, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh my last part wasn't really in response to you

More to cjmulrain saying tra doesn’t seem very reliable.

by Gina on Apr 13, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

fewer K's

but a much better K/BB. I know it’s a tiny sample size, but if those starts were to repeat themselves over the course of a season Maine would still have a worse tRA while having been a far better pitcher.

by cjmulrain on Apr 13, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the idea is this:

If you had a LD% that high over the course of, say, 35 starts, you don’t have a good season.

by Lunkwill Fook on Apr 13, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yea, I get that

I guess it’s a sample size thing. I just think I’d much rather take my chances with Maine’s high LD% than with Ollie’s BB ratio.

by cjmulrain on Apr 13, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

if those line drives fell as hits

And those fly balls left the park would he still have been a better pitcher? The idea is that over the course of a season line drives that get caught some starts will land as hits in others, until it evens out, same with fly balls except some will leave the park. Which is why the small sample size matters. Maine if those 8 balls batted in the air had turned into hits would we still think Maine had the better start, and if that bomb votto hit had happened in citi instead @ the reds and it had gotten caught by beltran at the warning track instead of leaving the park would we still think Maine had been the much better pitcher? Obviously now it’s irrelevant because they didn’t but over the course of those things tend to even out.

And inducing weak contact is as much of a skill as control is, I would hope Maine’s ld rates were just a small sample size abberation but if he’s giving up that many line drives and fly balls over the season, and as much contact then even if Ollie’s control is all over the place he’s not going to be that much better.

by Gina on Apr 13, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs