I don’t think anyone is saying this team is going to win 70 games. I imagine most would agree that we’re good enough to win 88-92 games, but so are the Braves and Phillies, and with a little(lot) luck possibly the Dodgers/D-backs which could possibly come into play with the wild card.

I’ve had some of the same thoughts you expressed here. BUt here’s the thing: I had a feeling the Mets of 2006 were going to win. They played solid fundamental baseball, with just enough flash, and they buried the division. A missed opportunity late in game 7 of the NLCS cost them a shot at a World Championship. 2007 had the same feeling (but not quite as strong) until that last, horrible 17 game stretch in September. 2008 the feeling was less because of what happened in 2007, and the Mets played just sloppy enough for half the year that you weren’t sure when they turned it around which was the real team. So even when they would jump out to leads early in games, you never got the feeling that lead was safe. Now harken back to 1985. This team played good, fundamental baseball with just enough flash to win, in a very competitive division. I felt like they were always in games, always had a chance. Then 1986 came and I felt overwhelmingly that they would win, a lot. And they did, 108 times. That feeling was derived as much from how they played in 1986 to how well they played in 1985. Even though the ‘85 team lost to the Cardinals eventually, they were a good team, and they proved it overwhelmingly in 1986. Now come to the present day. We as fans are shaped by our experiences, and recent ones count for more. In the last three years the Mets have been good enough to win, good enough to win it all. But every season has ended in disappointment. The last two, especially painful and gut-wrenching disappointment. So while we have hope because we’re only 10 games in now, there are enough warning signs flashing to make us worry. I no longer have the feeling that this team will win, like I did in 1986 and even in 2006. I want to believe they will, but my recent experience has told me otherwise. I’ve invested a lot emotionally with this team over the last 40+ years, and a lot over the last 3, and come away bitterly disappointed. Wright is not at his best right now, apparently he has forgotten he does his best hitting when he’s patient and goes the other way. I believe he’ll rediscover that notion soon. Reyes is pressing, and yes he is still learning the game but at some point he has to graduate from learning the game to applying what he’s learning. He’s not doing that right now. I believe he will do that as well, hopefully soon. Beltran seems to be somewhat inconsistent, going through long stretches of offensive ineptitude followed by shorter stretches of offensive dominance. He’s over 30 now so I would hope to see more consistency and less on/off mentality. I don’t know if he will give that to us. Delgado is indeed picking up where he left off last year, and that is great to see. We need him to be a dominant force in the middle of the lineup. Everybody benefits from his presence. I believe the defense will improve, but it will never match the ‘99 team. All things being equal, if the Mets had any kind of bullpen last year they easily win 97 games. The Phillies miss the playoffs entirely. All things being equal, this Mets team can do the same thing. We have the talent, to be sure. But the history of baseball is filled with many talented teams that failed to live up to expectations. I went to spring training in 1986, sat next to new Pirate skipper Jim Leyland in the stands and told him the Mets would win the series. True story. You could look it up. I was that confident in them. I just don’t have that same feeling about this team. But I want to. I really do.