Fantasy Mets: Dan Murphy

I wanted to do a bit of a supplement to Sam's excellent fantasy preview by focusing on individual Mets and really going in-depth providing predicted '09 stat lines, future expectations, players comps, ceilings/floors, etc.  Its a bit late in the fantasy draft season but if people like it I may throw a few more together...

Daniel Murphy is an interesting case study in terms of fantasy:  He clearly possesses excellent offensive skills; contact ability, advanced plate discipline and a sweet line-drive stroke.  He even has the ability to steal a few bases.  However, his value is largely contingent on where he ends up on the diamond which is definitely up in the air for the next few years.

SO FAR:  Drafted in '06 out of Jacksonville U. as a third baseman, Murphy logged most of his minor league games at the hot corner.  However, obviously he will not uproot the Mets current option anytime soon.  So where will he play?

The answer for 2009 is left field.  Obviously his fantasy value takes a hit in this scenario as that line-drive approach cuts into his raw power.  And as far as fantasy is concerned, an OF is usually required to put up strong power numbers.  Therefore Murphy probably won't be a top 25 OFer but top 50? Not out of the question.

Let's look at his Minor League resume:  In '07 in A+, Murphy hit .285/.338/.430.  Not bad, especially when you consider his 42/61 BB to K ratio, which is superb in his first full season against pro pitchers.  He hit 11 hrs and stole 6 bases, both fine totals for his true rookie season.  In '08, forward-looking owners really began to take note with the 13 hr and 14 sb totals in only 360 ab's in AA.  His ratios continued to progress (.308/.374/.496) and his BB/K improved as well (39/46).

At this point Murphy was called up to NY and gave fantasy owners a preview of what he's all about.  In 130 ab's Murphy posted a .313 AVG and a remarkable .397 OBP while popping 2 hr's.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN '09:  Clearly Murphy's value is derived in his ability to get on base.  At every level he has shown the good eye and strong bat control that leads to low strikeouts and high walks.  And with the recent announcement by Jerry Manuel that Murphy will bat 2nd, this could mean great things for Murphy's '09 season. 

First of all, batting with Reyes on base theoretically means more fastballs and more hard hit balls.  However, while Citi Field is still an unknown, many expect the park to play similarly to Shea meaning don't expect huge HR totals right away but 35+ doubles is a real possibility.  Also expect increased runs batting in front of Beltran, Wright & Delgado; the 2nd spot in the Mets order scored 115 runs in '08.  One can even expect a good amount of stolen base attempts thanks to the Mets "greenlight" mentality and his decent speed. 

However, it's not all sunshine, lollipops and rainbows.  Murphy was the benefactor of a ridiculously high .386 BABIP after his callup last season.  This is sure to drop, leading related stats like AVG and OBP so don't expect that .320 AVG just yet.  Also, with more than capable righties like Fernando Tatis and Nick Evans on the bench, don't be surprised to see Murphy sit against tough lefties now and then, eating into his total ab's.

AND BEYOND:  Murphy has shown tremendous growth since joining the Mets organization as well as a very strong work ethic and excellent plate discipline which all adds up to a good young player who could get better.  Having not yet reached his offensive plateau and his still young age, one could expect a player with Murphy's skill set and a little luck to top out around 20-25 hrs, 10-15sb's, 100+ rbi's in the right lineup, a near .400 OBP and a .300+ AVG.  Again, this is assuming theres growth left in that bat and also that he maximizes it.

As I previously mentioned, Murphy's value will depend on where he plays and many around the Mets feel that Murphy will serve as Carlos Delgado's replacement at first which really doesn't help his fantasy value.  But owners should keep a close eye on Luis Castillo this season because if he struggles, Murphy may become an option at 2B.  As a second baseman, Murphy instantly becomes a top 10 value at the position.

FANTASY PLAYER COMPS:  The easy one to make is Paul O'Neill.  There are many similarities: Irish outfielder, lefty, good power, runs a little and has that grinder reputation.  However, O'Neill didn't have nearly as good BB/K at Murphy's age.  For a current comp, I see Murphy as a lefty version of Garrett Atkins, if it weren't for Wright he might even play the same good-not-great D at third as Atkins.  Some more comps: Casey Kotchman, John Olerud, James Loney & Jason Kubel.

'09 PROJECTED STAT LINE:  The following is a combination of projection systems (CHONE, PECOTA, ZiPS, Marcels & James), AA Community Projections and my own insight:

If you're in a league that uses OBP or OPS (or doubles), Murph could be quite the steal as hes ranked the 89th OFer by ESPN with an avg. draft position of 223.  Either way, he's not a star but he'll put up very solid #'s all across the board and could easily jump past guys like Delmon Young, Adam Lind and Mike Cameron to break into that top 50.