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Around SBN: Randy Moss A Raven?

Mets Team Health

Over at Baseball Prospectus, injury guru Will Carroll has been running his Team Health Reports for all 30 big league teams. A couple of weeks ago he posted the Mets report, which features an awful lot of red lights. In case you're wondering, the THRs are system-generated based on historical injury data, playing time, etc., and aren't just the result of Will pulling a player's name out of one hat and a colored token out of another. You can read more about the latest iteration of the THR system in this post.

I asked Will a few follow-up questions about the Mets' Team Health Report.

Were there any surprises here for the Mets? With few exceptions, the old guys are red and the young guys are green.

I think that's oversimplifying. Age is a poor proxy for injury risk. I think that Jose Reyes is so solidly green is a bit surprising, thinking back to where we started. I'm a bit surprised that Beltran is green as well. I think there's more risk here than most realize.

Ramon Castro has been an injury machine (if that even makes sense) since signing with the Mets. What did the THR system say about him, if anything?

Nothing. It takes too long to do everyone since much of the data entry is by hand, so backups don't make it in. You're right, he's always been injured, but I think the expectation is that being a backup would keep him healthier. Doesn't seem the case, so given that value, I wonder why he's still around. If nothing else, it would reduce the workload on the medical staff. A guy that would kind of make sense is Gregg Zaun, once Matt Wieters is up.

Injuries cost the Mets $34 million in 2008 and quite possibly a playoff appearance. Do you think the injuries they incurred were calculated risks on the part of management, a misunderstanding of those known risks, or just bad luck (i.e. "baseball")?

I think most of them could have been anticipated. Wagner's arm is probably the biggest one. Maine's elbow. Beltran's knees. Alou's ... everything? I think they took some gambles, but it doesnt seem like they had solid Plan B's for those, save Alou [ed. note: exactly! zero contingency was the problem].

What is the primary function of a head trainer? What distinguishes a good head trainer from a bad one?

The Head Trainer runs the show. He manages injuries, runs the Training Room, serves as a Father Confessor to most of the players, advises the GM and Mgr about who's able or not able, gives estimates on how long someone will be out, schedules things with the doctors, follows up on doctor's orders, manages the rehab, manages the Asst Trainers, rehab staff, allied staff ... it's easily an 18 hour a day job. There are no bad ones, at least not for long, and results are the difference.

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My feelings about

Ray Ramirez are mixed. With many of the big injury candidates off the team, I think this season will really be telling and should be used for a decision about our training staff going forward.

Good interview Alex, I really like when you get answers to Mets related questions from the big guys (such as Sickels.)

by Sokojoe on Apr 2, 2009 3:50 PM EDT reply actions  

Can we really blame it on the training staff though

If we keep bringing in injury candidates and they keep getting injured? I mean if you remove the guys with extensive injury history, and obviously the weird handling of Church, I think we’ve had pretty good track record with injuries that shouldn’t have been expected, or a lack of those types of injuries.

by Gina on Apr 2, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, that was my point

We’ve had a lot of DL time, but the players were more the cause for it. Carroll has mentioned this is his pieces the last couple of years. I’ve never really been able to judge Ramirez, but with Pedro, Wagner already out, Alou gone, so I’m really curious as to how Ray will perform with a pretty clean slate.

by Sokojoe on Apr 2, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah I misread what you said

My mistake I thought you said we still had big injury candidates.

by Gina on Apr 2, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

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