PITCHf/x: Bad Ollie

by Sam Page on Apr 22, 2009 8:00 AM EDT

That didn't go well. After teasing us with a good performance, Oliver Perez kicked off the ground, sending us back to the bottom on the never ending see-saw. What went wrong? Throwing only half his pitches for strikes is the short answer, but Oliver's survived such control issues before. Let's start with the not-so-bad:

Perez threw with a pretty consistent release point all night. He's notorious for falling one way or the other when out of whack, so on one hand, it's encouraging. On the other hand, we can't just blame bad mechanics.

Whereas he used to keep a solid 10 mph between his fastball and changeup, so far Oliver's reduced velocity has made them hard to distinguish. When you're throwing fastball at 88 and a changeup at 84, you're really throwing a crappy fastball and a Barry Zito.

His slider looks awful, all over the place. The only consistent movement he got was sort of flat, barely breaking toward righties. And those two on the right...ugh...

Geez.

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Wow, let me say I did not want Lowe but I did not want Ollie either.

I would have much rather have saved our total money and signed Garland AND another pitcher like Wolf for 1 year then look for trades or new FA next year. Ollie is Ollie.

by TRS86 on Apr 22, 2009 8:29 AM EDT reply actions

Yeah part of the problem with ollie's contract

Is that the 12 million on the books hurts our ability to add other pitchers. The 13 million is on the books regardless of whether we have to bring in an Oswalt/Peavy/Halladay.

Although bright side to bad Ollie means good Maine should be showing up next right? Since they seem to be taking turns being useful.

by Gina on Apr 22, 2009 9:07 AM EDT reply actions

But but but

Matt Cerrone said we could trade him if he’s bad. He said it was a good move. I’m so confused.

by dtro on Apr 22, 2009 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions

you mean in the metsblog world

where any rediculous trade you pull out of your butt is a real possibility?

HELLO HELLO MR WILPON. WE WANT THE MANSION NOT THE CONDO.

by kendynamo on Apr 22, 2009 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions

God, I hate him.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Apr 22, 2009 9:22 AM EDT reply actions

All it will take

is one good start from Ollie (probably 3 days from now) and we’ll feel much better. Until his next start.

He was so much worse at the beginning of last year but managed to turn it around and pitch some brilliant games. We forgave him then and we will do so again.

by TheBigStapler on Apr 22, 2009 9:42 AM EDT reply actions

I never forgave him.

Not trying to pull a DevonEdwards here, but I really cannot accept Ollie. I do not believe in him. I do not believe he is capable of improving and/or become consistent. He’s 27, not 24. His leniency time is up. I didn’t think this way last year, I didn’t think it in 2007, and I definitely didn’t think it in the offseason, when we signed him. I wanted Derek Lowe, lost out on that. I wanted Ben Sheets, well, he was injured. I even wanted Randy Wolf. I would have taken Randy Wolf!!!

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Apr 22, 2009 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Just noticed "changeups"

Ha ha!

by TheBigStapler on Apr 22, 2009 9:43 AM EDT reply actions

Also are we sure those 84 mph change ups are change ups?

His avg velocity on his change ups has usually been like 81-82 most of his careers. What would cause an increase in speed like that of his change ups? Especially if his fastball’s velocity was declining, is it possible those are just really slow mislabeled fastballs?

by Gina on Apr 22, 2009 9:50 AM EDT reply actions

PITCHf/x mis-identifying the pitches

Maybe they were exceptionally lifeless sliders.

by Eric Simon on Apr 22, 2009 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions

That's what I was getting at

when I put changeup in quotation marks.

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Apr 22, 2009 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah

but if they were fastballs what would cause such a huge decrease in velocity on those random fastballs? If he’s averaging 89 and topping out at 92 why would there be random fastballs in the mid/low 80s range. A few of them seem like they could have just been really crappy sliders but some of them are too slow to have been fastballs, to fast to have been change ups and to lifeless to be sliders.

by Gina on Apr 22, 2009 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions

According to Darling two starts ago

Perez throws a splitfingered changeup. I haven’t heard much about this grip but just thinking it through, the speeds and movements make sense. The fourseam fastball is the fastest pitch a pitcher can throw. Thus, the grip of the fastball is “perfect.” A changeup is thrown with the same arm action as a fastball, the reason it’s slower is because the pitcher grips the ball tighter with more fingers on it. The movement of a changeup is due to the increased effect of gravity on the pitch. From the sounds of it a splitfingered changeup is throwing at fastball arm actions with a “less perfect” grip but “more perfect” grip than a changeup.

Still, I don’t know what exactly is the difference between a splitfinger changeup and a splitfinger fastball if there is a difference. Also, even if the changeups are real, I still think pitch f/x is mislabeling a bunch of them looking at the second chart. The >6, <10 pitches look like fastball to me.

by Sokojoe on Apr 22, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions

It may be

That he’s altered his grip on the changeup, trying to control it better by getting it less “deep” in the hand, which would also lead to more velocity. This would make sense in the early season with the cold weather if he’s having a tough time feeling his pitches. Even on warm nights, it may just be that he’s been going into his bullpens and trying to keep a more command-oriented grip on it. I really have no idea, I’m just speculating.

by Mark Himmelstein on Apr 22, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions

bad ollie

good pizza

HELLO HELLO MR WILPON. WE WANT THE MANSION NOT THE CONDO.

by kendynamo on Apr 22, 2009 9:52 AM EDT reply actions

Ollie,

“You really need some help. A regular psychiatrist couldn’t even help you. You need to go to, like, Vienna or something. You know what I mean? You need to get involved at the university level, like where Freud studied, and have all those people looking at you and checking up on you. That’s the kind of help you need. Not the once-a-week for eighty bucks, no. You need a team. A team of psychiatrists working around the clock, thinking about you, having conferences, observing you like the way they did with the elephant man. That’s what I’m talking about, because that’s the only way you’re going to get better.”

by TheBigStapler on Apr 22, 2009 10:16 AM EDT reply actions

ha!

nice reference

"You know I am only teasing. I love you gals out there -- always have." - Keith Hernandez

by OSUmets on Apr 23, 2009 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm generally not a visual person...

Graphs typically do nothing but confuse me so I usually skip the visual and read the words. I still need a little help on these pitch F/X graphs.

So…

I’m looking at the graph as if I’m the catcher sitting behind home plate, right? On the top graph the y-axis (up/down) is the release point. The x-axis is the amount of break. But, what do the numbers actually measure? +10 or -10 of what exactly?

"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin

by dcrockett17 on Apr 22, 2009 6:20 PM EDT reply actions

They measure the fall of the ball compared to a spinless pitch

So lets say a ball with no spin would fall 5 inches or something, just picking an arbitrary number, that 5 inch fall would be where 0 is on the graph. A pitch with top-spin, like Pelfrey’s 4-seamer, would fall less than that so on the graph it would be above 0, a pitch with more spin, like a breaking ball, would fall more than a spinless pitch.

by Gina on Apr 22, 2009 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions