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An Early Look At J.J.

Jj_scary_medium
The Mets rotation is 10th in the league in FIP (4.29), which is even more awful when you realize that Johan Santana is the only reason it's not 16th.  But today I'm trying to be positive, so I'll write about something pleasant.  The bullpen has been unquestionably awesome, posting the best FIP in the league (2.73) by a wide margin.  J.J. Putz is one reason why, although there are some areas of concern for him thus far.  Here are his stats per various metrics:

tRAFIPxFIPERA
3.36 3.64 5.77 3.38

These are respectable numbers but certainly not on par with his 2006 and 2007 performances.  A return to that form is what Omar Minaya and Met fans had in mind when he was acquired in return for Endy Chavez and Mike Carp (was anyone else involved in that trade? I can't remember).  The leverage index (LI) when he enters games is 1.46, which is almost as high as Billy Wagner's was last season (1.54).  As I wrote on Tuesday about Jerry Manuel's bullpen use, this is a good thing.  A team's best relievers should be used in the most crucial spots, no matter the inning.  J.J.'s strikeouts have been down this year, as his K/9 is just 3.86.  His fastball velocity is down and his contact % is up, something Jeff at Lookout Landing recently noticed:

YearFastball mphContact %
2006 95.6 69.7
2007 94.7 73.3
2008 95.0 74.1
2009 92.2 84.0

While it's never encouraging to see a pitcher's velocity go down, the silver lining is that J.J.'s line drive rate isn't awful (19.2%) and his GB/FB rate is slightly better than it was during his career year in 2007.  This accounts for his decent tRA.  However, he's going to give up some home runs eventually, so let's hope J.J. can figure out how to start missing some more bats. 

0 recs  |  Comment 7 comments |

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Good observations

The fact that his strikeout numbers are down didn’t bother me until I read this. But now it’s obvious why: his fastball is about 3 mph slower than normal. Is his location good enough that he can afford to pitch to contact on such a regular basis?

by Prince on Apr 23, 2009 9:25 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

If he keeps throwing that

nasty splitter, then yeah, I think so

by deadspy3 on Apr 23, 2009 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fastball

Was it just me or did his fastball pick up a bit on Saturday when it was warm out…maybe the weather is a factor?

by metsman07 on Apr 23, 2009 9:32 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

WBC

I’ve been wondering if the lack of a real spring training regimen has anything to do with Putz’ velocity.

The Mets are really going to have to reexamine their support for the WBC the next time it rolls around.

by haplo on Apr 23, 2009 9:42 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

In all fairness

he allowed 2 runs which shouldn’t have happened on Tuesday, the Murphy stumble hurts his ERA when he only has a handful of appearances.

by DevonEdwards on Apr 23, 2009 11:35 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Hence

We look at tRA, FIP, etc. which assess his performance without considering whether the defense behind him is making plays. ERA is only included as a reference point.

by James Kannengieser on Apr 23, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yup

and though Murphy fell, the ball was smoked.

by jasondg on Apr 23, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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