Ooh-ooh That Snell: Mets 8, Pirates 4

by Eric Simon on May 10, 2009 10:56 PM EDT

A: Beat the bad teams.

Q: What are good teams supposed to do?

It doesn't always work out that way of course, and the Mets have plenty of experience losing games to crummy teams. But we'll leave aside discusson of what the Mets are supposed to do and just worry about what they actually do. In this case, they hosted the Pirates for three games at home and spent the next twenty-seven innings annihilating the team from Pittsburgh. The Mets dominated almost every facet of play, outscoring the Pirates 25-8 and trailing at an inning's end just three times all series.

Livan Hernandez was good but not great on Sunday, allowing eleven baserunners in six innings but only ceding home plate twice despite pitching with a runner in scoring position in each of the first five innings. A better team might've plated more than a couple of runs but on this day Hernandez was good enough to keep the Mets in the game, throwing a season-high 104 pitches in the process.

Sean Green was garbage again today, though I think he'll be fine if he can get a few good appearances in a row under his belt. He has had two dreadful games where he allowed five and four runs, respectively, but his biggest problem right now might be with his sinker. His BABIP (.395) is unusually high given his line drive rate (13.3%), but his groundball rate (53.3%) is well below his career norms and considerably lower than what he did in Seattle last year (62.8%). His velocity hasn't changed much from last year, but he is throwing his slider a lot more and relying less on his fastball. This could be a issue of confidence in his sinker, as maybe he just feels better about his breaking balls. Whatever the problem, the increase in flyballs has led to an anticipated jump in his homer rate, which has gone from 0.34 (HR/9) in 2008 to 1.93 in 2009. There's some sample size bias here: we're only talking about three homeruns in 14 innings so far, but he gave up the same number of homeruns in 79 innings last year, so something's definitely funky. I'd be interested in seeing if the movement or release of his sinker has changed at all from last year (hint, hint).

The Braves come to town for a three game series beginning Monday. Johan Santana will take on Derek Lowe in the opener.

Swag Contest

Swag contest results can be found here and the next game's swag form already available. You can read more about the swag contest here.

SB Nation Coverage

* Boxscore
* Amazin' Avenue Gamethread
* Bucs Dugout Gamethread

Win Probability Added

Big winners: Omir Santos, +13.7% WPA, Livan Hernandez, +13.2% WPA
Big losers: Carlos Beltran, -6.9% WPA, Ryan Church, -4.9% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Santos two-run single in fourth, +14.1% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Diaz RBI single in third, -9.0% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: +31.1% WPA
Total batter WPA: +28.9% WPA
GWRBI!: Jose Reyes

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by DevonEdwards; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.

Num	Name	# of Posts
1	DevonEdwards	113
2	cuseindahuse	80
3	Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright	47
4	itsmetsforme	46
5	EMSfan9	43
6	Prince	34
7	hotspur	27
8	JoshNY	21
9	gogomets	19
10	pingel	16

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Comments

That was a therapeutic series.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 10, 2009 11:03 PM EDT reply actions

You may call me

The embiggenator

by DevonEdwards on May 10, 2009 11:19 PM EDT reply actions

Scrubs.

I heart that graphic.

RIP to a great show.

SEVEN GAMES! Let’s take this into the Braves series AND into San Francisco (where I will personally be at every game, screaming my head off….or at least rooting on the Mets).

"But it's not over yet, everybody thinks it over, but if we can just get the Earth to reverse rotation...this thing can be played again. So there you go, New York Mets......motherf*ckers." - Jon Stewart

by pingel on May 10, 2009 11:39 PM EDT reply actions

most jerked around series to ever last 9 seasons

Why couldn’t they ever find a good timeslot for it? Liked the finale episode.

by metsjetsnets on May 11, 2009 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions

that finale

perfect

by DevonEdwards on May 11, 2009 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions

agreed.

on all fronts.

by pingel on May 11, 2009 1:26 AM EDT up reply actions

Nice write up about Green

I was thinking of doing a little post about him over at MetsGeek but you hit the nail on the head. Last year, pitch f/x didn’t separate some fastball variations, four seam compared to two seam. Also, a sinker (two-seam) or four seam thrown at slower velocity and down kind of confuses the system and can be labeled interchangeably. So, with the latter in mind, Sean Green’s pitches last year (according to retired blogger Josh Kalk’s numbers:)

Fastball -89.4 mph, -10.45 break x, -.98 break z
Sinker -88.64 mph, -11.1 break x, -1.17 break z
Slider -75.9 mph, 5.62 break x, .42 break z

This year (according to FanGraphs:)
Fastball -88.1 mph, -10.3 break x, -3.1 break z
Two-Seam -89.5 mph, -10.8 break x, -2.2 break z
Slider – 76.3 mph, 8.3 break x, -.4 break z

Now, there are some huge differences from Kalk’s numbers and FanGraphs. This is because Kalk would use his own algorithm to classify pitches, not what pitch f/x would label them. Therefore, I trust Kalk’s numbers for last year. My trust is solidified by seeing that FanGraphs states that Green threw 73.5 four seamers and only 3.5 sinkers last year. I do trust FanGraphs numbers this year since pitch f/x has been much improved, but I wish Kalk didn’t retire because he was the shit. But I digress.

Green’s sinker appears to be breaking slightly less than last year; however, more surprisingly is the fact that his four seamer is now moving vertically more than his sinker. There is also a greater difference between the vertically movement between his sinker and his four seamer. My feeling is the latter is what’s helping hitters hit him. That is to say, Green is effective when hitters think four seamer only to have the ball run in on their hands. Perhaps, the greater vertically movement is allowing the hitters to identify which pitch is being thrown. I’m sure there is more than can discerned with the data but I’ve got work in the morning. I’ll look into Green more later, unless someone else wants to take a crack at it.

by Sokojoe on May 11, 2009 12:40 AM EDT reply actions

what a difference a week makes!

From scuffling disappointment to biceps-flexing goodness. Let’s keep rolling!

by metsjetsnets on May 11, 2009 12:49 AM EDT reply actions

I predicted 12-1 Pirates

I deserved that SWAG beatdown. It should also be noted the game is on ESPN tomorrow, so Johan in primetime. Odd, there have been a LOT of games on ESPN at CitiField. I will be utterly familiar witht he stadium by game’s end.

The 2009 NY Mets: WE GOT K-ROD! OMG, Putz, too! Sign Lowe! Lowe's a Brave. Sign Manny! Tim Redding, WTF? Sign Manny! Sheets or Perez? SHEETS! Perez?? Oh, Sheets is hurt -- good job, Minaya! WTF?! SIGN MANNY!

by ZaBlanc on May 11, 2009 12:50 AM EDT reply actions

Cerrone says it's all grission + confidence

…this is essentially what i learned in my quest to better understand the idea that passion, heart and fire matter in baseball… basically, from talking with current and former players, it matters, but not as much as confidence… it’s all about confidence… if a team is confident, it starts winning, it finds a swagger, and they play with intensity… if they’re not confident, and they do not believe, they second guess themselves, get down, and they look flat… you can’t only want it more than the other team, that’s not good enough… more important that passion and fire, a team needs confidence and must believe in itself, and from that everything else follows…

by jasondg on May 11, 2009 8:28 AM EDT reply actions

Yeah, I saw that. Blarf.

But at the same time, I don’t necessarily disagree with him. To be fair, he’s basically saying that “passion” and “heart” aren’t as important as confidence. And I think thats a fair point. We ARE clicking right now, and that’s at least a little bit because of how well we’ve been doing, giving the team confidence. But in reality, I think it’s just that the FANS have confidence right now…But whatever. Better that than grission.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 11, 2009 8:35 AM EDT up reply actions

Though yes

Rather that than “fire”

by deadspy3 on May 11, 2009 8:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Confidence -> Winning -> Swagger -> Intensity

Confwinswagsity

More important than being good at baseball. FACT.

by deadspy3 on May 11, 2009 8:36 AM EDT up reply actions

Wait, how the fuck does he know that?

Maybe they are winning because they are talented adults who get paid a ton of money to play a game. Maybe they hated being three games under .500. Maybe David Wright sacrificed a chicken last week during the rain-out and they all drank the blood. Passion and fire my ass.

Grission and Husart - that is either the non-union Mexican equivelant of "Starsky and Hutch" or the key to winning the World Series.

by IanB in MD on May 11, 2009 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Q: "how the fuck does he know that?"

A: “from talking with current and former players”

C’mon guys, I know it’s easy to hate on Cerrone, but it’s not like he’s just saying “I think confidence is important.” He’s got access that the rest of us don’t have, and it sounds like a common theme coming from players, which echoes what most of the former players who are now talking heads say. And while I think passion and grit and fire are overrated, I absolutely 100% do not think confidence is overrated. Confidence is a big part of “talent” – you can be the most physically gifted athlete in the world, but if you don’t believe in yourself you’re going to struggle. Look at Aaron Heilman – I don’t like to play armchair psychologist, I’ve never seen a more obvious case of a guy with no confidence than him towards the end of last season. Except maybe Chuck Knoblauch.

"This is the beauty of baseball. In basketball, at the end of the game, you want to put the ball in your best scorer's hands. But in baseball, it's up to a rookie like McGlinchy and a journeyman like Franco with the entire season on the line. Baseball history is dotted with names like Al Weis and Brian Doyle, men who have taken their name out of the agate type and placed it into the headlines, because it was simply their time."

by cjmulrain on May 11, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions

It's easy to pick on Cerrone because he makes it easy.

The problem with analysis like this is that is does not say anything. You can’t qualtify the ‘confindence’ – it’s something people talk about after the fact.

What’s more, I doubt the ‘current and former’ players make much of an effort to wipe old cliches from Matt’s head. “Sure, buddy, I was feeling confident that day, and that’s why I hit the homer. It was totally confidence that made the difference.”

Grission and Husart - that is either the non-union Mexican equivelant of "Starsky and Hutch" or the key to winning the World Series.

by IanB in MD on May 11, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah, if the posibility of signing multi million dollar contracts

doesnt motivate you to play the best you possibly can at all times then you have other problems than your heart, grit and passion.

also do you think cerrone has an ellipse programmed as a hot key so he can just press F2 or something and save himself the extra two key presses? add that up over time and hes saved like days off his life.

HELLO HELLO MR WILPON. WE WANT THE MANSION NOT THE CONDO.

by kendynamo on May 11, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah, this is basically a reflection on his own outlook

If he feels confident in the team, then all of a sudden the team is confident.

He sees what he wants based on Ws and Ls.

We've got ourselves a ball club, the Mets of New York town!

by kingcritical on May 11, 2009 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions

So Green is in the mop-up role now right?

Six run lead in the ninth is considered mop-up, right? I really don’t want to see him and his 9.00+ ERA in close games anymore. You know, unless mets bullpen members have their arms falling off.

by meigs1414 on May 11, 2009 8:47 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs