Putz Can't Handle The Job
by Sam Page on May 14, 2009 8:00 AM EDT
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PrintTwo weeks ago, Dave Cameron speculated that J.J. Putz was hurt, based on his bad ratios and decreased velocity. Mets fans reacted harshly at the time, preaching a lesson most rarely heed: patience. Well, since then Putz hasn't looked much better. His average fastball velocity, 93.1 MPH, is a full two ticks below his 2008 mark, when he was rehabbing from surgery, and three MPH less than his 2007 speed. His K/9 is an awful 5.68 and his BB/9 an equally disappointing 4.74. What's worse is that the problem may be indicative of a larger trend:
| Year | FB vel. | SwStr% | O-Sw% | Contact% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 95.6 | 15.0% | 31.1% | 69.7% |
| 2007 | 94.7 | 12.6% | 24.7% | 73.3% |
| 2008 | 95.1 | 11.0% | 24.7% | 74.1% |
| 2009 | 93.1 | 7.8% | 15.8% | 82.6% |
(Fastball Velocity, Swinging Strike %, Swings on balls outside the zone%, Contact%)
While this chart doesn't indicate a steady decline, he certainly isn't getting better and this year looks far and away to be his worst. The problem is no mystery: he's not throwing hard enough and he's getting hit hard. That, combined with bad control, and he's pitching like a mop-up man at best. His illusory sub-4 ERA is being sustained by a .252 BABIP and only one homerun so for, neither of which are sustainable if he continues to pitch to contact. His tRA of 4.89 is second worst in the bullpen to Sean Green's. He looks hurt, and regardless of whether he is or not, it's time to take the 8th inning out of his hands and give it to Parnell full time.
And despite many people, including Omar Minaya, thinking the Putz trade was a huge steal, it looks like the joke's on the Mets. The Mariners sent us damaged goods, while Mike Carp OPSes 1.013, Endy Chavez has already been 6 runs better than Gary Sheffield , and Jason Vargas looks like the back-of-the-rotation starter we so desperately need. Woops.
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You were right on until Vargas
You think we lost this deal because we miss Jason Vargas? Do be serious. Putz is more critical to our success. I’d rather work on figuring out Putz’s issues than have Chavez/Vargas. They were both here last year if you don’t remember, and didn’t contribute.
The 2009 NY Mets: WE GOT K-ROD! OMG, Putz, too! Sign Lowe! Lowe's a Brave. Sign Manny! Tim Redding, WTF? Sign Manny! Sheets or Perez? SHEETS! Perez?? Oh, Sheets is hurt -- good job, Minaya! WTF?! SIGN MANNY!
I didn't have any real expectations for Vargas either...
They were both here last year if you don’t remember, and didn’t contribute.
Heath Bell logic.
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
Wooooh. Fuck.
At this point, our bullpen should have Parnell as our set up man. He’s been far and away our best reliever sans K-Rod, and Stokes (the other bullpen arm working really well) needs to be available for spot starting duty, long relief, etc. I miss our players. I’d honestly much prefer Joe Smith, Eddie Kunz/Darren O’Day/Nelson Figueroa in the bullpen and still have Endy et. al.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
I watched the late replay of Daily News Live
after coming back from the 11 PM Star Trek IMAX (which was AWESOME). Anyway, those guys wasted 7 minutes bloviating about whether Putz’s struggles were because he’s not pitching in “save situations” and he’s too used to being a closer.
Let's run with that
Maybe, if the rest of the ’pen holds up, Omar can find another slow-witted GM to buy that theory and give us something valuable in return.
"The definition of edge is going out there and getting a few wins, and then all of a sudden you don’t have to worry about anyone talking about edge anymore," Wright said. "That's a thing in the past. Go ask Omar about that."
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on May 14, 2009 8:39 AM EDT up reply actions
At this point
Probably the better option…maybe he can go in a deal with Church for a corner OFer?
Then they could jettison Sheff and hopefully work out the mess they have in the OF
Putz's workload
I think we’re barking up the wrong tree here. I think Putz is fine injury wise. His average might be a little low but he seems to still be bringing 95 mph heat for the most part. I think he’s been SEVERELY overworked while players like Stokes are languishing in a relative mop up role. The sooner Jerry realizes this the better.
Why is it...
that when we acquire players in trade, they fall apart, but when we trade our own players away, they become great.
It’s… not fair.
Maybe it's not coincidence
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
Are you implying that Omar Minaya might be at fault??
by TheBigStapler on May 14, 2009 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
That hat
looks like the ones you can buy for $5 after the game on the subway platform. Good to know Omar is Living Strong though.
by James Kannengieser on May 14, 2009 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Ever since
getting my job cooking the books for Uncle Peat, I no longer patronize the bums on the Shea subway platform. I only shop at Mets Clubhouse.
by James Kannengieser on May 14, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I can't believe 2 mph
tells the whole story. Perusing through the pitch f/x charts on Brooks, I see that he’s not locating his pitches with any plan. They’re scattered everywhere in and around the strikezone.
It appears that he has little remaining command over his splitter. Hitters are just sitting on the fastball and waiting for it to get caught up in the zone.
maybe it just needs to Putz the lotion on its skin
and feel better.
ah, this blows. the good news is if we dont make the playoffs this year, omar has to get fired. maybe then we’ll get a REAL gm. one we can make t shirts that mention our trust in him or her. yippee!
HELLO HELLO MR WILPON. WE WANT THE MANSION NOT THE CONDO.
Considering the Wilpons recent track record with gms
I think Omar might be our best hope. The only people I trust to screw up more than Omar are the Wilpons.
I don't think we miss Jason Vargas
right about now I’m missing Mike Carp, i feel like for years we, mets fans in general, speculated about his defense/power, and as soon as we trade him he turns into a gold glove first base men who hits the cover off the ball.
where did the Carp power burst come from?
I am crestfallen. Let’s hope it goes away. Better yet, let’s hope Putz gets his act together. How can he possibly have made the “I’m pitching worse because I’m not pitching in the 9th” comment out loud? Man, that is dumb.
by metsjetsnets on May 14, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
It's been steadily increasing
And considering his size/plate discipline it’s not really surprising that he developed power. It just kind really sucks. I was always holding out
And I just looked at his MLE translations at minorleaguesplit.com and almost cried.
Don't forget this fact:
He’s in the hittingest part of the PCL now.
by Lunkwill Fook on May 14, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah thats why I look at minorleaguesplits
It’s not perfect but it has options to adjust for park/luck. Even after you do that Carp is still raping.
I always believed in Carp
he was my favorite prospect, and I was genuinely dismayed when we traded him. My facebook picture used to be me and Carp at PSL the year he wasn’t invited to the major league camp (2008?).
Let’s hope it goes away.
^unacceptable
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
don't take it literally
as i said, better yet, let’s hope Putz gets his act together
by metsjetsnets on May 14, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Jason Vargas???
Come on, man that is just absurd. I am sorry but there isn’t a GM in baseball that would not have made the Putz trade Omar made. It may not work out although I think Putz will be fine. But to say Omar was foolish here. No, I don’t see it. If Seattle wins this trade, its pure luck. Although I remind everybody for the 1000th time that the real problem with the trade was giving up Endy Chavez. :) Seriously, even that isn’t so bad when you consider his bat plays far better in center field where we had no opening and Reed has actually hit ok so far. Bottom line, much to early to call this trade a bust.
I would disagree
I think considering how many relief pitchers were available in free agency, and Putz’s injury, a lot of gms would have tried to fix bullpen issue through FA rather than spending all those player resources in a trade and basically ignoring every other hole. I don’t think he was foolish but I think there were definitely more efficient options. And Reed has like a .438 BABIP, and since his batted ball numbers haven’t really changed from the last couple years I’d say he has a huge fall to earth coming.
Also I don't really see how you can say if Seattle wins its by pure luck
I think even at the time of the trade most people agreed it was pretty even for both teams. Seattle clearly wanted to improve their of defense, so they targeted endy pretty specifically and I don’t think getting Carp was any accident either, he’s always had awesome plate discipline but scouts seem to underrate him and label him a future dh/unathletic masher, despite the fact he’s actually played pretty good defense at 1b in the minors, because of his size and the k’s.
to quote Dave Cameron
I still think this deal has a ~20% chance of being the best trade in franchise history
Seriously. In terms of asset value:
Gutierrez is a +2 to +3 win player in his prime and making pre-arb money. That’s around a $20 million asset.
Carp has a decent chance to be a +2 win first baseman. He’s probably a $7 or $8 million asset right now.
Chavez is a +1.5 win player making $2 million. He’s a $1 or $2 million asset.
Vargas and Olson are both decent back-end starter options with a little upside. Probably $2 or $3 million apiece.
Cedeno is a +0.5 win player with a little upside. $1 or $2 million asset.
Carrera has a decent chance to be a +1 win outfielder. Another $1 or $2 million asset.
Cleto’s value has basically been wiped out since he can’t get a visa, but that wasn’t really predictable.All told, the M’s got something like $35 to $40 million worth of value in return for a broken closer, a ROOGY who was easily replaced by waiver wire fodder, an outfielder who will probably be non-tendered after the season, and one good prospect. Valbuena would have to be the best prospect in baseball for this trade to not look good. .
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
There’s still too much baseball left this season to call it a failed trade. Let’s see if Putz can get that velocity back. A trendline already suggests that it’s going up, we just have to hope that his strength doesn’t plateau any time soon.
<img src=“http://www.fangraphs.com/fgraphs/1795_P_FA_20090513.png”/ WIDTH=450>
by TheBigStapler on May 14, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Big fail at posting an image. Let me try again:
by TheBigStapler on May 14, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Make believe numbers
Here’s the fact: Cedeno and Carrera have no guarantee of EVER being replacement level in the majors. Assessing them a value at this stage of the game is wishful thinking. The realistic way of looking it is: Are the Mets gaining wins as a result of the trade or not? Seattle’s rebuilding, it’s a different gaem for them.
by Lunkwill Fook on May 14, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions
So far I'd say the Mets have lost wins from this trade.
If you must know. And you can’t dismiss numbers as “make believe” because they’re speculative or estimates and then speculate that Putz will eventually be fine.
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
I think the problem is
the front office, and likely Jerry, doesn’t understand endy’s value and wasn’t going to play him anyway, and we’re never going to see Carp as more than an unathletic DH type so I’m not even sure we can say we lost wins since we likely wouldn’t have utilized either of them.
But Green and Putz have both been negative
so far
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
Maybe he is being overused?
19 games, 20 IP, is a lot, he’s on pace for 95 innings pitched this year after never throwing as much as 80. Maybe if Jerry would use Stokes more often Putz would be better.
Is there anything different about his arm slot?
He has worked very slowly, which is never a good sign, but I didn’t watch him enough in Seattle to really have anything to compare this to.
The one thing that is really concerning to me, aside from the loss in velocity, is that is pitches in general just don’t seem to have much “life”. He seems to miss up in the zone more often than down with his splitter, which is completely backwards, and his slider, typically his third pitch, has at times seemed to be his most effective one.
The good news lately has been that he hasn’t walked many guys in his last few outings, and he is finally picking up a few punchouts. But the bad news has been he’s given up a couple doubles the last few times he’s been out there too.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on May 14, 2009 3:25 PM EDT reply actions
for what its worth and if anybody cares
I have gone back and read everybody’s comments, including my own, regarding the Putz trade at the time it took place and with perhaps one or two exceptions, nobody was down on it and quite a lot of people thought it was a great trade for the Mets. The key was that nobody really thought Carp had a great chance of being a great prospect because of his lack of ability to hit lefties, his poor defense and his stalled power development. (Gina you were part of a small group who thought Carp was a better prospect than he had shown). And nobody thought that Sean Green was going to be as awful as he has been so far. Our chief broke the trade down this way
Endy for Reed
Smith for Green
Carp + Heilman for Putz
At the time it looks very reasonable given that Endy could never play for us every day, most people liked Green way better than Smith and nobody thought Carp was going to become a power threat. And everybody wanted Heilman gone. If Carp turns out to be a 30 HR guy , we got screwed. If Green and/or Putz stink the whole year, its a bad trade. Otherwise its at worst a wash and I will bet, (as much as I love him) that Endy isn’t going to hit like this all season. But the point is that I don’t think anybody had reason to question Omar’s thinking at the time. Omar is not a very good GM but the jury is still out on this trade and I can’t pile on it just yet. And Jason Vargus is not a good pitcher.
I was lukewarm on the trade. Tim Marchman hated it (as did Blastings)
I couldn’t understand why everyone thought this was a steal for the Mets. They essentially traded a valuable outfielder, our best-hitting prospect and organizational depth for a relief pitcher. I was assuming that Putz would come back to 2008 form and I was still lukewarm. Now that Putz is becoming a bust, the trade looks like a typical Minaya disaster.
I’ll listen more to Marchman from here on, although he’s a Murphy skeptic and I’m still bullish on him.
I will not allow the denigration of the life essence
by GenJackRipper on May 14, 2009 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Ahem-pre-2008 form
I will not allow the denigration of the life essence
by GenJackRipper on May 14, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Eh
Carp was a nice player, but if he’s though only real prospect you’re giving up and you’re getting what appears to be a legitimate upgrade, its worth it. In terms of usefulness, Reed and Green for Chavez and Smith is not a significant change in overall value, and for the Mets purposes, looked like a potential small gain but likely just about a perfect wash. Carp was underrated, but there was more to it than “he couldn’t hit lefties”. 2007 was the reason he was underrated, he was awful then, but 2008 had lots of signs of legitimate bounceback/breakout. But he was also a questionable fielder, a pure 1B/DH type, and his power ceiling was fairly unclear for that type of player. It never looked impossible that he’d be a 30 HR guy, but it never looked particularly likely either, until now perhaps.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on May 14, 2009 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions
"Reed and Green for Chavez and Smith is not a significant change in overall value"
It’s a downgrade in overall value for the Mets, which is why it was part of the trade.
I don't really think so
The difference between Green and Smith is questionable, but they’re almost the same pitcher. Chavez is obviously a better fielder than Reed, but Reed also has more offensive potential. At least he has some gap power, Chavez was never going to be anything more than a slap and dash type.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on May 14, 2009 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions
For what it's worth
Although scouts had a problem with Carps fielding the numbers don’t back that up. Total zone has him as a plus fielder I believe.
Interesting
Because most scouting reports I read had him as a real butcher, but I think part of that also came from the fact that the Mets were trying him in LF, and it apparently didn’t work well at all.
I could see him being a decent 1B, but I think the point about his fielding was more about the fact that he was going to be completely limited to 1B in the NL than anything else. You weren’t going to be able to try him at 3B and LF obviously didn’t work.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on May 14, 2009 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah but I don't really see how that's a problem
Being limited to first base I mean. There’s plenty of first basemen, in the NL and AL who are limited to first base.
Its not a "problem"
But it is a part of evaluating a prospect. My point wasn’t that Carp’s a bad player, I don’t think that and I didn’t before, its just that he was expendable, as far as prospects go, and not that big a price to pay for what appeared to be a significant upgrade.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on May 14, 2009 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions
how is billy doing?
if putz can’t handle the 8th inning then make billy the 8th inning guy and use putz as trade bait
by JADDENHOPKINS on May 14, 2009 4:07 PM EDT reply actions
-1
at least you didn’t post in all caps this time
Who was this responding too?
Use the reply button, or my simple mind will get confuzzled.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
I thought I did
I was responding to JADDENHOPKINS. seems like a nice person, despite his silly remark here, but a chronic abuser of the All-Caps rule.
This is weird
Matthew Artus of nj.com posted a story that looks a lot like mine: http://blog.nj.com/mets/2009/05/putz_missing_his_edge_so_far.html then links to my story at the bottom and insults it for making a small sample size conclusion.
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
That's pretty sketchy
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on May 14, 2009 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm assuming
that Artus sees your article with a conclusion that JJ sucks while he wrote
Let me preface this by saying: THIS IS A SMALL SAMPLE SIZE. I’m not using these stats to make any conclusions. I’m just looking to uncover trends worth watching.
So, you made a conclusion in his eyes while he is making a trend claim or something, I dont know, that’s the best I got.
i commented on nj blog.
i was infuriated so it didn’t come out that great. sorry for not adequately representing AA.
by rob neyer for prez on May 14, 2009 10:05 PM EDT reply actions
Not a GM in the World who wouldn't have made that trade...
Sure Carp is hot, Endy has been great and Vargas is looking like a Major League back of the rotation starter, but even if Putz’s arm ends up falling off, you have to make that trade with the way last year ended. I’m as hard on Minaya as anyone, but even if all three guys turn out well, it needed to be done.
That said, commence ripping him for the Ollie deal and our debacle of an outfield…I love D Murp but if he misplays another ball or misses one more cut-off man, I’m going to personally block him from ever going North of 3rd base.
I completely disagree that not a gm in the world wouldnt have made that trade
And I don’t completely understand why people seem to think that.
Anyone who talks to Omar at Mama's of Corona would have made the trade
Kidding aside, I really can’t see how it was a bad risk to take given the situation. You’re getting a very legitimate upgrade at RP and really not giving up much that isn’t replaceable, aside from Carp, but again, even if he was underrated he was fairly expendable. If you’re not giving up Carp in a deal like that, you’re probably getting a little too attached to your youngsters.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on May 15, 2009 1:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh I'm not saying it's a bad risk or even that I thought/think it was a bad trade
I’m saying to say any gm would have made that trade is ridiculous, when there were other options in free agency. Plenty of gms wouldn’t have made that trade.
Who was in Free Agency?
The only other option for someone decent was Fuentes and he signed for more than Putz makes and wouldn’t have come to set-up.
Juan Cruz is the only one I can think of
that’s really worked out so far and is cheaper than Putz.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on May 15, 2009 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions
other options in free agency
wouldn’t have signed with us after Frankie. Fuentes, Wood, etc. wanted to be closers, not set up men. To get 2 legit ML closers on your roster, you’re gonna have to trade for one (or, fingers crossed, have one come back from the DL months earlier than expected).
When all is said and done
Endy is a nice fourth outfielder, Vargas will flameout and Carp is Mike Jacobs with a little more glove 5 years from now. A year of an All-Star Closer running set-up for a team trying to erase 2 years worth of bullpen nightmares is well worth it.
Project yourself to any one of a dozen games last year where Aaron Heilman was the caretaker of a late lead (sorry to put that thought in anyone’s head), and I think you’ll find it’s worth it. Putz is not right currently and he still is a huge upgrade.
And Carp won't hit 30 HR's in the bigs. It's all relative.
He’s not ready to go next year and 1B would have to be addressed in Free Agency, eventually pushing him out anyway. He’s a nice player though. Would certainly rather have him than not, but not over Putz.
Um who in free agency are we going to pick up for first base?
Adam Laroche? Or are we gonna resign Delgado?
Murphy or Murphy/Evans
Would at least be league average… but I know what you mean.
by TheBigStapler on May 15, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Are you sure they'd be league average for first base?
Maybe if they play superb defense but league average for first base is pretty high.
Also then the question becomes how many positions can we afford right at or below league average production from?
I'd take Nick Johnson...nice OBP but gets hurt too much.
Might be better off trying to pull Prince Fielder out of MIL. They can’t afford to re-sign him but we probably don’t have the goods to get him. Better yet, sign Jason Bay and work Murph in at 1B.
Use reply button please
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
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