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Big Fatty vs. Tiny Tim

Tonight's pitching battle between Livan Hernandez and Tim Lincecum is likely the biggest mismatch of the Mets' season.  The only way these two could be more dissimilar is if one threw lefthanded. The physical differences are striking. Livan checks in at 6'2", and a conservative 245 lbs., while Lincecum is 5'11" and 170 lbs. (soaking wet). Livan's average fastball this season is 84.7 mph, which is 2nd slowest among NL starters. Lincecum is at 92.3 mph, good for 7th fastest. The differences between their DIPS are even more pronounced:

tRA FIP xFIP
Hernandez 5.47 5.08 4.63
Lincecum 2.36 1.83 2.73

(Side note: What's tRA? What's FIP? What's xFIP?)

Their peripherals tell a clear story: Lincecum misses a ton of bats, while Livan misses hardly any. What will it take to come out with a victory? Well, the Giants offense will need to be terrible, which is actually pretty likely. Pablo Sandoval and Bengie Molina are the only threats in their lineup, and their team wOBA of .302 is the worst in the league. Lincecum struggled in his lone start last season against the Mets, but his stuff is undeniably filthy. His line-drive % is a poor 24.8% this season and 19.2% for his career, so if a batter makes contact there's a decent chance the ball will be hit hard. His extremely rare "blow-up" starts have generally been a result of too many early walks (which is a surefire way for any pitcher to have a blow-up), so patience at the plate is a must for Met hitters. Otherwise he might have a game more like his 7 inning, 8 K gem at Shea Stadium in 2007.  Earlier this season, Livan outpitched Ricky Nolasco en route to a Mets victory, so anything is possible.

For more on Lincecum and the rest of the Giants staff, check out Mets Geek.

Livan_and_lincecum_medium

0 recs  |  Comment 21 comments |

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I was at his game against the Mets last year

Beltran tagged him for a three rum bomb in the first and Mike Pelfrey did exactly what he was supposed to do with the Giants lineup.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on May 15, 2009 12:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The giants offense

is definitley the key to this game.

by TheBigStapler on May 15, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fatty

Just really need to let the defense do the job behind him. No walks!

by metsman07 on May 15, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dude

I love Bubba Gump Shrimp Co.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 15, 2009 3:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Same here.

A few weeks ago we were up in the city (San Francisco) with our cousins from Jersey and I wanted to go there, but everyone apparently hates that place.

Except me and you, squid.

"But it's not over yet, everybody thinks it over, but if we can just get the Earth to reverse rotation...this thing can be played again. So there you go, New York Mets......motherf*ckers." - Jon Stewart

by pingel on May 15, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If we win this game

It is because we took Lincecum deep into counts and got him out of the game early.
Oh…and it will take “edge” and “gristle”…and a few stolen bases too.

by EMSfan9 on May 15, 2009 6:54 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Quote:
I say (even though the chances are slimmer than nicole richie) trade the farm or partial farm and reyes for adrian Gon. and peavy! Not going to happen but it would fill both voides and keep them in ultra serious contention for this years world series because thats what its all about, just win the darn thing any way you can. Win one this year and it doesnt matter what happens in the next at least 5 years.

-Metsblog commenter

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 15, 2009 9:39 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

hahaha.

Sure, winning it one year is great but I would like to at least be in contention for many years to come, and a yound Reyes helps us do that.

by EMSfan9 on May 15, 2009 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not to mention Reyes straight up for Gonzales

would be an awful awful deal by itself

by Gina on May 15, 2009 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Trade the farm AND reyes for Adrian Gonzales

I honestly think my head exploded this time. I don’t think I’ve heard anything stupider things year.

by Gina on May 15, 2009 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh wait I didnt see peavy

But still I don’t think I’d do Reyes for Gonzales and Peavy

by Gina on May 15, 2009 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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