Mets Bullpen Swinging Strike %

by James Kannengieser on May 17, 2009 9:00 AM EDT Comment 15 comments

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Swinging strike % (SwStr%) is the percentage of pitches thrown that result in a swing and miss. It's a quick way to tell how good a pitcher's "stuff" is and correlates strongly with strikeout ratio. For some context, average SwStr% for relief pitchers is around 9.5% and Juan Cruz led the National League at 15.4% last season. Bobby Parnell's % is an oddity, as he's generating more strikeouts than expected. He has also yet to give up a home run and unfortunately that will change at some point. If J.J. Putz has more outings like he did yesterday (94 mph average fastball, 95.8 max fastball), his SwStr% should rise. (stats via Statcorner)

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Comments

I'm surprised

That Takahashi and Feliciano’s are so high and Parnell’s is so low…

"You know I am only teasing. I love you gals out there -- always have." - Keith Hernandez

by OSUmets on May 17, 2009 9:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Do Called Strikes...

indicate something other than quality of “stuff”?

"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin

by dcrockett17 on May 17, 2009 9:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

They may indicate a pitcher is deceptive

but don’t have a strong correlation to strikeout rate.

by James Kannengieser on May 17, 2009 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Parnell's rate

Couldn’t that be indicative of a young pitcher with good ‘stuff’ who is still learning how to pitch? Also, for a pitcher like Sean Green, isn’t it ok that he doesn’t have a high swinging strike rate since he pitches to contact?

Just some thoughts.

by metsman07 on May 17, 2009 12:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

"Pitching to contact"

I think the general view of most statistical baseball analysts is that it is really hard to be successful “pitching to contact,” and that pitchers (especially young pitchers) should be analyzed based on HR allowed, BB allowed, and strikeouts, and especially the last of these.

For example, you can generally tell a minor league prospect from a minor league suspect based on strikeouts/IP. E.R.A. for minor leaguers can be too context-ridden (parks, defense, bad luck, etc.)

by JoeGoNets on May 17, 2009 12:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think it depends on what type of contact

I think most statistical baseball analysts consider inducing weak contact to be a skill set so a guy who pitches to contact but gets heavy ground ball rates is more likely to be successful but a guy who misses some bats but gets hit hard when hitters make contact isn’t.

by Gina on May 17, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sure, GB pitchers can be successful,

But if you give me two young pitchers who have achieved similar results, but one has done it by incuding low batting averages on balls in play, and the other through missing bats, I’ll take the latter every time.

by JoeGoNets on May 17, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll take whichever one I think is more likely to sustain those results

as a side not, fwiw, Derek Lowe who is obviously a ground baller doesn’t have a particularly Lowe BABIP, it’s right around average. Same with Santana last year who was pitching more to contact than usual, although his BABIP was bordering on being outside the average range. Just because a guy misses bats in the minors doesn’t mean he’s going to do it in hte major leagues, and even if he does miss bats if when he gets hit it’s hit hard, our favorite pitcher Oliver Perez being a perfect example missing bats might not matter.

by Gina on May 17, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow, I'm pretty surprised Parnell's % is so low

Because he has a real power arm and a great slider. Is there a statistic for strikes looking %, because I feel like Parnell’s slider freezes hitters fairly often

by njmetfan12 on May 17, 2009 1:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

His called strike % is 19

if I’m reading statcorner correctly.
For comparison:
Frankie: 17.7%
Feliciano: 17.7
Takahashi: 16
Stokes: 17
Putz:: 17.6
Green: 18.2

by gogomets on May 17, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

His slider's okay

But its not a plus pitch. He struggles to command it at times, and I think it “freezes” hitters when he gets it over because generally throws it so infrequently, and most hitters just haven’t seen him yet.

Its all about the fastball for Parnell. The reason he’s been so immediately successful as a reliever is because you can be effective as a reliever with a good, well placed, mid-90s fastball and an average second pitch. As a starter, guys will start to time you better the more times you go through the lineup. But with the movement velocity combo it has, its going to be tough for guys to really get on it if he’s only facing four or five hitters per outing.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 17, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed,

I didn’t mean to imply that his slider was a dominant pitch as compared to someone like K’rod’s, it’s just effective because he has such a power arm and like you said, only has to face hitters once

by njmetfan12 on May 17, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do you see Braden Looper as a potential comparable for Parnell?

by All Shook Down on May 18, 2009 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's an interesting comp

What did Looper throw when he first came up? Even as a reliever, he had a changeup he used occasionally didn’t he? Just off the top of my head though, I can see it. Similar build, similar fastball, both starters who were converted early on. Looper wasn’t anything special early on though, and I don’t think his fastball was quite as dominant as Parnell’s has been so far. If I remember correctly, he relied a bit more on his secondary pitches. But I seem to have blocked out a lot of my Looper memories, so I could be wrong.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 19, 2009 3:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I believe he was primarily FB/SL

He started incorporating the change more under the tutelage of Rick Peterson.

Looper came to mind because they’re both right-handers who were converted to the bullpen with a sinker ball reputation and a K/9 in the 6 to 7 range. Parnell throws harder, but Looper tends to induce more ground balls.

I could totally see Parnell remaking himself into a starting pitcher later in his career, as well.

by All Shook Down on May 19, 2009 5:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs