For Omar: It's do or Dye

Its become reasonably clear that at least some of Holliday’s production the last few years has been a Coors-induced mirage. If you look at BP’s Minor League Translations for the International League you see that Fernando’s current translated batting line, .278 / .327 / .549, is quite a bit better than Holliday’s current line in Oakland: .268 / .340 / .428.

The Minor League Translations at BP are awesome. They also have a “peak translator” which also accounts for ARL and attempts to estimate a player’s peak Major League performance based on career and seasonal data. For F-Mart, his Peak Translation is pretty sick: .306 / .377 / .604.

Here’s how Derek Jacques explains Peak Translations:

One tool that helps take this factor (and several others) into account is the Peak Translation. Peak translation projects a player’s translated performance to an expected peak level, using age adjustments compared to each level at which they’ve played, and (for batters) adjustments based on the power component in their hitting performance and their strikeout rate. The result isn’t quite as sophisticated as Nate Silver’s PECOTA projections, but it does help a bit in separating the wheat from the chaff.

that should be a standing order. dont even pick up the phone.

He states that, if the Mets don’t want to commit to a 29 yr old outfielder, then perhaps the 35yr old one would be more appealing.
Perhaps in need a site bot, but clearly has the pulse of the Mets FO.

It will cost I think 1.5 million to buy out on top of the 11 million he’s making this season. Plus Dye is awful defensively. And why have a one year stop gap blocking players who we plan on using long-term?

So…we SHOULDN’T put stock into stats compiled by people PAID to do that and who do a better job than more than half of the scouts in the MLB at predicting future success in prospects?
And we don’t need veteran leadership. That is not a quantifiable need. Therefore, you cannot honestly definitively tell me we need it.

1. It wasn’t a projection, it was a translation. There’s a difference. Its not saying “what a player would do from now until the end of the season if he were called up” its saying “this is what this player would have done so far had he been in the majors”. Its mostly based on competition level of the league (in this case, the International League), and the various Park Factors for the different parks around the league. For what its worth, I’m pretty sure the translations are ballpark-neutral, so if you actually wanted to translate it to what Fernando would have done on the Mets, you’d have to consider Citi Field’s park factor as well, which in this case, would reduce the translation.

2. BP’s a pretty awesome resource. Its not free like Fangraphs, and they’ve fallen a bit behind the cutting edge in some ways, but they’re reliable and have lots of interesting tools like this one that are quite useful. Its not a Mets-Homer site, its objective.

3. No offense, but if you’re going to disagree, an actual argument would be preferable to just saying “give me a break”. I’m really not saying that to be rude, nor am I saying you’re necessarily wrong, but if you have something to say, back it up.

4. Matt Holliday is a proven .300 hitter in a ballpark that inflates hits in play by more than any other park by quite a wide margin. Its actually not the ridiculous HR park it used to be, partly because of the humidor, and partly because its just so damn big now. I’m not saying he’s as bad as his first month in Oakland, but some regression was expected to begin with for Holliday.

Dye might very well be cheap, but there’s nothing beyond speculation and the blatherings of morons like Steve Phillips to prove that A) what the Mets lack is some mumbo-jumbo like “veteran leadership” rather than actual tangible things like “corner outfielders who can hit” or “decent starters besides Johan Santana” or “a manager who understands in-game tactics”, or that B) Jermaine Dye is a guy who will provide that leadership. On the other hand, there’s plenty to prove that he’s A) a terrible fielder, and B) not that much better of a hitter than what we already have. (And if you believe in “clutch”, Dye’s OPS over 44 career postseason games is almost 100 points lower than his career regular season OPS.)

Holliday has proven that he’s a phenomenal hitter at Coors Field. On the other hand, in his career on the road (mainly meaning “at stadiums other than Coors” other than the beginning of this year) he’s a career .281/.347/.455 hitter. While that’s hardly terrible, I think it’s far from “proven” that he can be a dominant hitter (or, if you prefer, a .300+ batting average player) at sea level.

Mild insults are a great way to make a good impression on the community here.

I decided that Jermaine Dye needs a new agent, because this guy is completely unconvincing.

I know it’s hard to call the Wilpons cheap when they have such a high payroll but at the same time when you consider just how much the mets make them they could likely easily support a much bigger one. It almost seems like to me that they spend just enough so that people cant call them cheap.

Have you seen his numbers since 06? A clear downward slope.

Batting average isn’t exactly the best method of valuing a hitter, right? And one exclamation point will do, thanks.

Jermaine Dye career OBP: .338
Troy Glaus career OBP: .360

In any case, way to totally miss the point about Glaus. I don’t want Troy Glaus. The Mets don’t need a 3B and hopefully they won’t need one for another 15 years. The point was merely that you cited “Dye was a World Series MVP” as a reason to get him, as if that proves anything about Dye (career postseason OPS .737). What Dye did in the playoffs in 2005 isn’t any more predictive of what Dye will do in 2009 than what Glaus (career postseason OPS 1.246) did in the 2002 playoffs is predictive of what Glaus will do in 2009.

Here is a list of former World Series MVPs who are still active:
Cole Hamels, Mike Lowell, David Eckstein, Jermaine Dye, Manny Ramirez, Josh Beckett, Troy Glaus, Randy Johnson, Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Livan Hernandez, Tom Glavine

Here is a list of former World Series MVPs who I would want on the Mets at this moment in time:
Cole Hamels, Josh Beckett, Mariano Rivera

Here is a list of former World Series MVPs who I would want on the Mets at this moment in time, in view of how much it would cost to acquire them by trade:

My point is, the fact that Dye was the World Series MVP is supremely irrelevant.

Dye happens to be on one of the worst levels defensively. Plus since when does Ryan Church suck?

Yet he was also regarded as one of the bottom-third fielding CFs. Coaches don’t get paid to pick the best players on other teams, so aside from the piece of hardware for winning a GG, the award’s really worth little.

Gold gloves mean nothing. Jeter has gotten one…so we KNOW it’s a useless award.
And Murphy, again, has been league average in LF if you would actually check stats.

If i were the GM:
Ibanez and Lowe would be here, and not with DIVISION RIVALS!!
But no, Fred Coupon contiunues his cheap ways.
They Mets have plenty of money, I dont want to hear how there strapped for money.

And I’ll tell you one thing that will NOT help your case: being a dick and acting like a spoiled 8 year old. If you want a rational discussion, go ahead. If not, please, continue to dismiss people’s arguments using subjective analysis and obnoxious words. And as Catsmeat says below, continuing to respond like this will just stop anyone from taking you seriously.

Saw a bit of legit dialogue today, but now I’m getting some serious flashbacks and am quite content to be finished