14 Minutes to F!Day

by Sam Page on May 21, 2009 11:51 PM EDT

5/21: Jesus Fernando Martinez goes 2-4 with a double. His OPS eclipses .900.

Tweet Comment 78 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I'm excited.

Would we send down Pagan? Reed?

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 21, 2009 11:53 PM EDT reply actions

Send them all down

Two man outfield

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on May 21, 2009 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions

We'll just have Voltron patrol the entire field.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 22, 2009 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions

literally!

With his fast first step and an exceptionally long stride that carries the giant robot from the mound to the center field wall in one step, Carlos Voltron put on an amazing fielding display in the fifth inning when he robbed Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramírez of a 500-foot shot by plucking it out of the air between the robotic index finger and thumb of his leonine hand.

We've got ourselves a ball club, the Mets of New York town!

by kingcritical on May 22, 2009 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions

While references to that article always make me happy about Beltran

They also make me sad about Heilman

Meanwhile, defending a comfortable 600-0 lead in the top of ninth, the Mets decided to rest up Carlos Voltron by moving him to the outfield and replacing him with reliever Aaron Heilman, who lost the lead and eventually the game after giving up 618 runs to close the inning.

Yeah, I know he’s doing his thing for the Cubs now, but he just had this unique aura of dread around him in 2008 that I’ll never forget.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 22, 2009 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions

I have good memories or Aaron...

…from the days when the Mets were not good at all.

In fact, I remember when he threw the Mets’ first and only no-hitter.

Except that bastard Luis Castillo got a cheap-ass infield single in the fourth inning that should have been ruled an error.

And which umpires were calling that game? Guess.

Give up?

HP – Brian Runge
1B – Charlie Reliford
2B – Angel Hernandez
3B – Greg Gibson

We've got ourselves a ball club, the Mets of New York town!

by kingcritical on May 22, 2009 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions

Wow

Great call, lol. I have good memories of him too, he was terrific pre-2008, and dare I say, perhaps even underrated.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 22, 2009 1:08 AM EDT up reply actions

I was there for that

I thought we had something in that heilman kid. If only we’d made him a starter,,,,,,,,,

by HotChipWillBreakYourLegs on May 22, 2009 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions

the third outfield can be the second shortstop

martinez + third outfielder = almost competent defense at short

by englishgrey on May 22, 2009 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions

ramon martinez + third outfielder

just to be clear

by englishgrey on May 22, 2009 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions

I was thinking more like

OF: Beltran
OF: Martinez
SS: Tatis
SS: Wright
1B: Sheffield
1B: Reed
C: SANTOS
C: CANCEL

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on May 22, 2009 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions

Even before going 2-4

F! translated triple slash stands at .278/.327/.556/.883 .292 EqA. Yes please.

by Sokojoe on May 22, 2009 12:09 AM EDT reply actions

Yeah that really highlight's just how impressive his power breakout has been

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 22, 2009 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions

I just read a Metsblog comment

that said Havens isn’t a legit prospect because he’s hitting below .250 and has a bunch of errors at shortstop. I hung my head in shame. Forget his incredibly unexpected power, his excellent K/BB, or that SS is one of the most difficult positions to play, errors aren’t exactly indicative of defensive prowess, or that scouts have said in college that Havens would be an excellent defensive 2B if he moved there.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 22, 2009 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions

Haha

Yeah I was just writing about him below. He’s in a funk, but its nothing too alarming. 6 for 41, but he’s putting the bat on the ball and taking his walks. He’s got to get his LD% up but there’s still plenty to be impressed with.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 22, 2009 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions

You know what I just noticed

Fernando’s translated .278 ISO would actually lead the Mets right now, by a very wide margin. Descending, the Mets currently have:

Carlos Delgado – .223
Carlos Beltran – .214
David Wright – .181
Gary Sheffield – .169
Fernando Tatis – .169
Omir Santos – .145
Daniel Murphy – .132
Ramon Castro – .127
Alex Cora – .118
Jose Reyes – .116

I guess you have assume part of the reason for this is Citi’s run depression, which might do a bit of damage to F!’s ISO. Still though, the more I think about it, the more I wonder if Fernando could be just what the doctor ordered right now. More than anything, the Mets need another bat with some thump in it. Aside from the automatic 2+ doubles per game from Beltran and Wright, it seems like the Mets have needed five baserunners in an inning before they can push a run across lately. If Fernando can just give the Mets with another decent power threat, and most importantly a power threat vs. RHP, that could be a pretty significant boost for this offense.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 22, 2009 3:07 AM EDT up reply actions

Alright, it's officially time to call him up.

Send down Pagan and play F! in the outfield almost every day.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 22, 2009 7:41 AM EDT up reply actions

Also noticed

this. Who’d have thought Citi Field has actually been the fifth best HR park in the majors so far this year? The Mets team ISO is actually higher at home than on the road as well. Maybe Fernando really could deliver some power.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 22, 2009 3:17 AM EDT up reply actions

Saw that

You need more than 6th grade math to accurately calculate that though. The Mets have a fly ball staff, 4 of whom sucjed the first week when it seemed like all those HRs were hit. A lot of them squinted past the corners also, which is mostly luck.
Your eyes can tell you that Citi drastically depresses HRs. The numbers should back that up by the end of the season. If they don’t maybe there’s something there.

I will not allow the denigration of the life essence

by GenJackRipper on May 22, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions

That'd doesn't explain

Why the Mets are hitting for more power on the road than at home though.

I mean, obviously I agree, Citi Field is obviously a HR depressor, and in a month and a half, the PF could easily be a sample size fluke yielded by a weak flyball pitching staff. I just thought it was kind of quirky.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 22, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Everyone hits better at home.

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on May 22, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Is that really true?

I mean, I could see teams generally put up better OPSes at home generally speaking, but I’d think ISO would be more ballpark dependent. What about the Padres? I have a really hard time believing their power numbers are better at home year to year. Even still, its pretty easy to explain the Mets home ISO with the ridiculous rate of triples they’ve hit.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 22, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions

The padres ISO was higher away

but it wasn’t so disparate that you couldn’t say they would hit better at home in a neutral setting.

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on May 22, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah

I mean, I assumed that if you neutralize for ballpark, teams would hit consistently better at home. But even HR wise, the Mets have hit 14 in 20 games at Citi and 12 in 20 games on the road. Those are such small numbers that the proportions could change drastically by seasons end, but its still not what I’d have expected to find thus far, especially considering Wright and Beltran’s drastically better road numbers (they both gain about .300 OPS points on the road so far).

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 22, 2009 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Ike Davis also had a nice game today

2-4 2B, HR. He got his OPS back over .800 after it had but just a bit below for a little while. He cooled off a bit early in May but he kept taking his walks and the last few games looks like he’s ready to turn it on again. Its still just his second career homer, he did go oppo though.

Havens has slipped off a bit though. He’s down to .240 / .345 / .452. He’s just 6 for 41 in his last 10 games. The 27/22 K/BB is indicative of a sound approach though, and a .212 ISO for a MI in the FSL is still pretty terrific. His LD% his low, but if/when he works himself out of, not a lot has peripherally changed. Even over the 6 for 41 stretch, his K/BB is just 6/5, so he’s putting the bat on the ball.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 22, 2009 12:32 AM EDT reply actions

Not to be a dick

Milledge’s Met MiLB career slash line: 311/377/488 (aged 18-22)
Fartinez’s: 282/338/445 (aged 17-20)

We’re sure he’s the answer?

by Zwill on May 22, 2009 12:42 AM EDT reply actions

Maturity and Discipline

Milledge lacked those qualities and suffered mightily in the MLB. Jesus (is that really his first name) Fernando Martinez appears not to possess those deleterious qualities.

by cuseindahuse on May 22, 2009 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions

In fairness to Edge

He showed a reasonable approach in the minors and consistently got on base at a decent clip, which Fernando is yet to do unless he’s got his batting average up. Their contact rates were similar, but the big problem with Milledge that I saw when he first came up was that right handed sliders absolutely destroyed him, and from what I’ve seen of him lately, its an adjustment he’s not yet made. While this may be a problem for Fernando as well, he has struggled against lefties in the past, he’s off to a very good start against them this year, and as a LHB, its easier to get away with this, since you won’t face nearly as many LHPs.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 22, 2009 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions

Fair point

He may not be, Milledge took quite a few more walks in his minor league career, but he never really had a power surge like Fernando is having right now.

But don’t forget than Milledge began his age 20 season in St. Lucie. Comparing their minor league careers side by side is deceptive and probably not the best way to make this comparison, since Martinez has consistently been one of the youngest players in his league. That never really happened to Lasto until he reached the big leagues. Plus, Milledge had only 648 PAs above Hi-A when he was called up. Fernando already has 800 PAs in the upper levels.

Its not an easy call at all, and I don’t think the question to ask is so much whether or not he’s the answer, but whether calling him up now would be problematic for either him and his development or for the team’s chances this year. I’m starting to lean towards no on both counts, but with the caveat that its probably too early to definitively answer the former of those two issues.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 22, 2009 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions

It's true

that Martinez has always been one of the youngest players in his league/level and his competent yet unspectacular numbers should be viewed in that context. But we haven’t really seen him dominate a level yet. Perhaps this is the year? Hopefully so. Obviously he will need to stay healthy and exceed 400 PAs for the first time if that is to happen.

If they call him up now, they have to play him regularly. There’s no sense in bringing him up to be a reserve. Is he at the level of a regular MLB corner OF at this stage of his career? Maybe. But we know Ryan Church is. And piecing together a Tatis/Sheffield/Church timeshare in the corners seems like a more prudent plan than throwing a 20 YO rookie into the fire. Maybe he can do what Justin Upton is doing right now but it took Upton 550 PAs in 07/08 to get to this point. Probably a call-up now is beneficial to his development but I don’t think it helps the team win games this year.

by Zwill on May 22, 2009 1:23 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

You absolutely have to play him regularly if he comes up

But there’s just so much available playing time right now, I don’t think taking the risk that he might be something better than the other guys you have is a huge issue. Sheffield needs time off, Church is mired in a miserable slump, Murphy’s been moved to first base, and Tatis can share time with him there.

When you’re struggling for offense the way the Mets are right now, you’ve gotta take some risks. The guys the Mets have are all relatively safe bets to be averagish. Fernando might not be much more overall unless his walk rate really takes off all of a sudden, but he adds another dynamic element to the lineup if his power is legit, because power is one thing this lineup is almost completely barren of save two players right now.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 22, 2009 1:28 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Plus

While he might replace Church/Sheffield/Tatis in the lineup card, those aren’t the players he would replace on the roster. He’d replace Angel Pagan (hopefully) or Jeremy Reed. So if he can be about as reliable as those three at the plate, he significantly deepens your bench.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 22, 2009 1:32 AM EDT up reply actions

Knowing what you about Omar Minaya

What makes you think he replaces Pagan or Reed on the roster? Doesn’t it seem much more likely that they call him up and demote Murphy to AAA if he continues to struggle? (And then demotes Fernando back to AAA to re-sign Marlon Anderson.)

by Zwill on May 22, 2009 1:43 AM EDT up reply actions

Nah

Why would they demote Murphy? He’s their first baseman. The only way Murphy gets sent down is if he doesn’t hit a lick or can’t field a lick. Judging by what we know of Murphy, I don’t think those are likely scenarios. But even if it did happen, in this case Murphy would be going down either way to learn defense and get his stroke back, which would move Tatis to 1B and free up even more outfield time. I wouldn’t call it a wise roster move, but its not a reason to keep Fernando out of the majors.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 22, 2009 1:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Omar isn't an idiot.

He makes some bad decisions some times, but he knows Tatis and Sheffield are better than Pagan and Reed.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 22, 2009 7:46 AM EDT up reply actions

Lol sorry one more

And I completely disagree with the last statement. I think if anything, calling him up is a bigger risk to his development than it is to the team’s chances. If Fernando is rostered, he’s the one guy who can fill in for Ryan Church and passably make up for his glove. If I have a worry, its that:

A. He struggles and gets sent down, a la Milledge, and it stunts his growth a bit.
B. Jerry does something stupid, like play him four times a week. I don’t think Omar would allow this, he loves F-Mart way too much, but at this point, its hard to put anything past Mr. Manuel.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 22, 2009 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions

With most guys

the situation you describe in bullet pt A is not an issue. Prospects are pro/demoted w/regularity and it usually does not stunt their growth. (Of course this is an organization that treats its farm system with disdain so maybe this is an issue for Met farmhands.) Pt B seems plausible to me. Seems like Omar and Jerry are not on the same page with regard to roster construction and other issues.

by Zwill on May 22, 2009 1:49 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah

But when you have a 20 year old guy who’s viewed as the future of the franchise, you make sure the message is clear. If Omar tells Jerry he wants to call Fernando up, and Jerry even hints that he might sit more than once a week, I’m pretty sure Omar just wouldn’t call him up. And if they did talk it out and Jerry agreed to play him everyday and reneged, Fernando would probably get pulled back to the minors ASAP. At least Omar’s bromance for Fernando is reasonable, unlike Jerry’s for guys like Santos and Pagan.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 22, 2009 1:53 AM EDT up reply actions

If we're going to promote him

it has to be either out of a need for a capable outfielder (i.e. we’re getting little production out of our guys we have now for a sustained period of time) or when he earns it. Both possibilities actually seem to be coming to fruition and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him sooner rather than later. Still, you got to imagine Church will turn it around a little bit and be an above average player and hopefully we’ll get some more production between Sheff and Tatis. I have almost no faith in Pagan and Reed offensively. However, if they don’t turn it around soon, we may have to at least see what he can contribute. And if Fernando keeps up his hitting for another 3 weeks or so, he’ll have earned a spot on the roster.

by Evan_S on May 22, 2009 2:48 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree on F-Mart

But not so much on Church. He’s not doing much right now that convinces me he’ll be anything more than a tad above average at best. He gets fielding points for good range and plus arm, but where’s the power gone? His batted ball profile in terms of GB/FB/LD% is similar to what its been the last few years. His .314 BABIP may be a tad low for his 21 LD%, but at best matching those numbers up would bring his line to .285 / .345 / .380 or so. What happened to the guy that hit 43 doubles in 530 PAs in 2007? Church hasn’t looked like that in over a year now. His HR/FB is tiny and his IFFB% is up. The only thing I really expect him to do better than F-Mart right now is make a bit more contact, but how much is that worth if he’s not hitting the ball with any authority?

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 22, 2009 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Meddler, you need to do another Minors Update.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 22, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Workin on a couple things I wanna post

Hopefully I’ll get one up in the next few days.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 22, 2009 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, that doesn't really make sense in what you're saying in that

he’s dominating AAA right now. But I agree, he has to start at the major league level. But also, a Church/Tatis/Sheffield platoon is decidedly not nearly as good as F! playing every day.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 22, 2009 7:45 AM EDT up reply actions

I can't agree that he's dominating

No question, the power is there. However, his BA and walk rate, which are identical to last year in AA, cannot be considered dominant. They’re solid but he’s not crushing the league. And we’re talking about just 160 PAs. It’s far from definitive. A short look at players who have reached the majors at his age indicates that there is always an initial struggle, typically lasting at least 400-600 PAs.

I’m curious what people are expecting from him in terms of production. My guess is somewhere around 260/320/410. Do we think he’s going to come up and immediately hit 280/350/500?

by Zwill on May 22, 2009 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Well

here’s the minor league translations for F! right now. These are the stats he’d be putting up right now in the majors. Plus, as Meddler said on another thread, he’d be leading the team in isolated power, even above Delgado. All of this is with a BABIP below .300, so it’s not really a fluke. So, I think you have to bring him up AND start him now.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 22, 2009 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions

What would you consider "crushing the league?"

He’s 13th in OPS and 3rd in TB!

by TheBigStapler on May 22, 2009 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions

An OBP better than Argenis Reyes

Low blow?

by Zwill on May 22, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions

Fartinez had a wretched April

All the recent talk about bringing him up has stemmed from his fairly ridiculous May: 74 AB – .351/.400/.703/1.103, 26 H, 6 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 15 RBI, 16 R, 6 BB, 9 K. For contrast, this was his April line: 73 AB – .233/.288/.411/.698, 17 H, 8 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 5 R, 5 BB, 19 K.

That said, I’m in favor of keeping him down at least another month or so how he continues.

"The definition of edge is going out there and getting a few wins, and then all of a sudden you don’t have to worry about anyone talking about edge anymore," Wright said. "That's a thing in the past. Go ask Omar about that."

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on May 22, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions