Murphy, New York First Baseman

by James Kannengieser on May 22, 2009 8:00 AM EDT Comment 45 comments

Now that the Daniel Murphy outfield experiment has ended, it's time to assess his long-term viability at first base. This seems like the only position Mets decision makers think he can play. I'd like to see him try second base in the minor leagues for an extended period, but with Luis Castillo entrenched there through 2011 and a general reluctance by the organization to take chances like that, it's hardly worth considering. Can Murphy hack it as a full-time major league first baseman?

Offense

Murphy's small sample size dominance at the big league level last season is well documented. His OPS was an excellent .871, aided by an unsustainably high line-drive % and BABIP. Despite the nonstop offseason hype, it's overly optimistic to think he can maintain this performance. Dave Szymborski's in-season ZiPS projection at FanGraphs thinks Murphy will finish the season with a .743 OPS. Compare this to the average National League first baseman over the last few seasons:

Year	Average OPS - NL 1B
2006	.879
2007	.846
2008	.838
2009	.820

An OPS in the .700's would be far below average for the position. In fact, Murphy's ZiPS-projected OPS is below league average, regardless of position. That's not something you want from your first baseman, the position at the bottom of the positional adjustment hierarchy. Murphy's best minor league season saw him go .308/.374/.496/.870 at the AA level. He'd have to come a lot closer to that type of production if he is to be a full-time first baseman. That is, unless his defensive contributions are substantial enough to compensate for his offensive shortcomings.

Defense

We don't really have much evidence to come to a verdict about Murphy's defense. I consulted Minor League Splits to find his TotalZone at first base, but the sample is too small to draw any conclusions. What we do know is that Murphy's footwork is less then polished, no matter where he's played. He's displayed some solid quickness, demonstrated by above average range according to UZR. On Wednesday against the Dodgers, he looked good overall despite some shaky footwork in the first inning.

In general, a first baseman has to mash in order to have value. There are exceptions of course. Casey Kotchman of the Braves is not a great hitter, but his defense has made him a league average performer in recent years. Lyle Overbay of the Blue Jays is a similar player. Barring Albert Pujols-esque defense, Murphy is going to have to improve his hitting if he is to be seriously considered as the Mets first baseman of the future. With Carlos Delgado sidelined through August he should get his shot, and we'll get a chance to see if "Daniel Murphy means business" translates to "Daniel Murphy slugs .450."

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Comments

One thing we didn't get to see on Wednesday night

was Murph having to pick out a low throw or bouncer. I am interested to see how he handles those.

I am also interested to hear Keith, if he’s back tonight, analyze Hammer as a first baseman.

"The definition of edge is going out there and getting a few wins, and then all of a sudden you don’t have to worry about anyone talking about edge anymore," Wright said. "That's a thing in the past. Go ask Omar about that."

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on May 22, 2009 8:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Also

is the title a Belle and Sebastien reference?

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on May 22, 2009 8:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It is

I’ve never even heard a song by them, but I remember a song called “Piazza, New York Catcher” coming out a few years back.

by James Kannengieser on May 22, 2009 8:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah that's what I was thinking.

“San Francisco’s calling us, the Giants and Mets will play. Piazza, New York catcher, are you straight or are you gay?”

Not a great fan of the band but it’s an okay song.

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on May 22, 2009 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Belle and Sebastian

I have a great photo of them in the Upper Deck at Shea Stadium.

They make really good records.

"Since we became accelerated readers, we never leave the house." - Los Campesinos

by Shomov on May 22, 2009 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I run hot and cold on them

I think mostly I just can’t listen to them too often but generally I like them.

What brought them to Shea? Promotion for the song?

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on May 22, 2009 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They're actually Mets fans

I saw them live one time at Keyspan and the singer, Stuart Murdoch, was wearing a jersey.

by TheBigStapler on May 22, 2009 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

B&S was an obsession when I was in high school

don’t listen to them too much now, but everything pre-Dear Catastrophe Waitress is classic.

by englishgrey on May 22, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Love the song, the band, and the catcher.

by TheBigStapler on May 22, 2009 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Decent song

But the band really lost points with me when I saw them as part of a festival at Keyspan Park on the day of Piazza’s last game as a Met, the lead singer dude came out wearing a Mets shirt, and then they failed to play the song.

by TedBerg on May 22, 2009 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's obviously not a winning musician

You gotta be flawless in those big moments.

/Steve Phillips rant

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on May 22, 2009 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Seriously

Luckily, Beck pulled a Derek Jeter later that evening.

by TedBerg on May 22, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i was at that show too!

beck rocked hard, and i’m not even a beck fan. the military-esque dancer ruled.

by englishgrey on May 22, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow

I failed to remember that that was the day of Piazza’s last game.

Also, we were totally at the same show. We rule school, no scrubs allow’d.

by TheBigStapler on May 22, 2009 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did their sound get lost in the large outdoor setting? (Sorry to carry on with this)

Are these the types of discussions that people criticize when they complain that this is not a discussion board. I appreciate how a discussion can go in unexpected directions, but I can also see why people would find it annoying.

"Since we became accelerated readers, we never leave the house." - Los Campesinos

by Shomov on May 22, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't remember, honestly

This was post Dear Catastrophe Waitress so it was a pretty retro rock sound anyway. Definitely would have suffered more if it were a predominantly acoustic set.

/tangent

by TheBigStapler on May 22, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know much about stats but is slugs .450 enough?

2009 OBP.333 SLG.395

Mets solution: get Tokuchi Toua.

by Michkin on May 22, 2009 8:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

In the long-term

slugging .450 isn’t so great for a 1B, but if he went .280/.350/.450 for this season I’d be pleased.

by James Kannengieser on May 22, 2009 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The next John Olerud?!

10-15 HRs, .360+ OBP .290 avg and great fielding. Even with these numbers, I will miss the bat Delgado smashes to make ball go long

by cuseindahuse on May 22, 2009 10:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Delgado will be missed big time

He’s very good at baseball, which helps the team win games.

by TheBigStapler on May 22, 2009 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I could live with that

But I’m skeptical about his defensive potential.

by Reg Dunlop on May 22, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm a little skeptical about his ability to OBP .360

but more importantly, it should be pointed out that both Hernandez and Olerud OBPed closer to .400 in addition to playing stellar defense (until Keith started to fall off in ‘88, anyway). I don’t know if .360 OBP cuts it as a 1B who doesn’t hit a lot of homers and (most likely) isn’t as great a fielder as those two.

by JoshNY on May 22, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is offtopic, slightly

but I was wondering if someone could do a post on our catching options? Both from an offensive and defensive standpoint, I’d like to know the best options among Schneider, Castro, Santos, Cancel, Valentin, and Thole.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 22, 2009 10:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Definitely off topic

We were talking about Belle & Sebastian, get with it.

p.s. That’s a great idea for a fanpost.

by TheBigStapler on May 22, 2009 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How about Murphy, New York Second Baseman in 2011?

He can fill in where needed for now, picking up Delgado and giving Luis a rest here and there. His numbers fit in much better at 2nd base than first and I think he can pull it off defensively.

I don’t think he has the power to be an everyday 1B and even if no options emerge in Free Agency next year and we don’t re-sign Delgado, we might be able to get by with him there for a year if we can pick-up a nice corner outfield bat.

I think if he has a future here long-term, it has to be at 2B

by AnthonyR on May 22, 2009 11:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It's a lost cause

He’s to tall to play 2nd, or something.

by Gina on May 22, 2009 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Havens? I'd prefer him at 2nd base in 2011.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 22, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would too

But until he’s actually in the majors it doesn’t really make sense to say Murphy can’t play there because of Havens. if nothing else maybe one of them will be valuable trade bait.

by Gina on May 22, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

True.

I said it before, and I’ll say it again. If things go according to plan, Daniel Murphy will not be on this team by 2011.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 22, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Meh I don't see him bringing back more value in a trade

That he would provide by being a cheap bench bat/utility player, if nothing else.

by Gina on May 22, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's the thing...

He’s more valuable to the Mets than he would be in a trade. Havens is much more valuable at this point in a package, but I also think that he has a better future than Murphy.

by AnthonyR on May 22, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I disagree about Havens being more valuable in a package

If anything I think thats close to the least value we’ll get from him. He hasn’t done enough to carry a package so he’d likely be a throw in in a bigger package of players and we’d be left with no long-term plan for second base, and likely having to throw a lot of money at an old player in free agency, ie Castillo part II.

by Gina on May 22, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree. Bear with me now as I take a trip down "If Omar was smart" street to 2011

Murphy should be kept on as a utility LF/1B/3B/2B, while F-Mart mans RF. Havens is situated nicely at 2B, while Castillo gets some time there as well in the final (!!!) year of his contract. We’ve signed/traded for a 1B or a LF, and Thole is at C. Niese is up in the rotation along with Brad Holt. Yay!

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 22, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Your 2011 Rotation

Johan Santana
Mike Pelfrey
Oliver Perez
Jon Niese
Brad Holt

Interesting!

by TheBigStapler on May 22, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If morons had their way

John Maine = SET UP MAN IN 2011

by All Shook Down on May 22, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The most interesting part, I thought

is that it assumes Maine won’t be re-signed.

by TheBigStapler on May 22, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

they will resign maine, he is worth it in my mind and is to young to let go

it is also way way to early to talk 2010 rotation

by jhroac02 on May 22, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, come now. This isn't set in stone.

But it’s fun.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 22, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I imagine it would depend on the cost/how he pitches

We have so many other holes to fill and if he’s not pitching like a #3 or better will we really be able to live with it? Considering we’ll still be stuck with Perez? I imagine they’ll have to bring in a real top end type starter somehow.

by Gina on May 22, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs