Re: Raul Ibanez.. Pardon me for seeming sour grapes

by Hoyadestroya85 on May 23, 2009 2:29 AM EDT Comment 50 comments

Does anyone find something suspicious about Raul Ibanez' stats this year? I guess this is my punishment for reading Game of Shadows right before the baseball season. But seriously, This guy has a lifetime 162 game average of 22 home runs and 95 RBIs, yet this season he's projected to triple the home run number and nearly double the RBI number and on top of that, his OPS is over 300 points higher than his career average.. all from a guy who's turning 37 next week! I know some of this can be attributed to the fact that Citizens Bank Park is possibly the friendliest stadium to lefties in the major leagues and Safeco is absolutely huge, but can that really be the full explanation? I know this sounds really crappy coming from a Mets fan but I get tons of exposure to the Phillies because I live in Philly. How can a guy who was a middle of the range power hitter presumably on the downside of his career all the sudden have a resurgence and become the best slugger in the major leagues, practically overnight. I hate to say it, because I'd rather the Phillies be winning on talent alone rather than using synthetic means.. but something about this is awfully fishy. I've waited a long time to voice it, but i've been having suspicions for about the last two weeks. It just seems amazing because this guy is only getting better. Maybe the guy is a freak of nature, but as each day goes on it is starting to look far more fishy.. this has Barry Bonds written all over it.

Here's his stats for his career.. no sabermetrics or anything so i haven't done a fully detailed statistical analysis.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=3504

If you think i'm full of Sh*t.. please rebut me, I'd love to hear the opinions of other Met fans.

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Just taking a quick glance

It looks like a confluence of flukes, some of which may be sustainable and some of which may not. Obviously, CBP is a reason one of those flukes, as is the fact that its not even memorial day yet. Here are a couple more I notice:

1. His LD% is currently the lowest its been in his entire career (15.3%), yet his BABIP is currently the highest mark of his career (.336). That doesn’t gel, and those numbers are going to gravitate back towards each other one way or the other.

2. His HR/FB is a ridiculous 27.3%. Given that his previous career high was 16.5% and that he’s typically sat in the nominal 10-12% range, this seems completely unsustainable, even for CBP. Consider this: 27.3% HR/FB would tie a career high mark for A-Rod and would be a standalone career high for Albert Pujols, Carlos Delgado, David Ortiz, Adam Dunn, and Chase Utley. The only contemporary guy I can think of who is regularly at or above Ibanez’s current mark is Ryan Howard.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on May 23, 2009 3:20 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs

Rec'd

And I love the phrase “confluence of flukes”

- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement

by riversmccown on May 23, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This hot streak is not out of line with his past performance.

He’s been ridiculous, but he’s done this before.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on May 23, 2009 9:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yes he has..

but all of those with the exception of one are when he was in the prime of his career. And if he was using PEDs, he’d start taking during a contract year such as last year.. wouldn’t he? I forgot to mention that the guy is routinely hitting balls over 400 feet and that many of his home runs, even at home are definitely not of the fluky variety. Obviously, the guy is seeing the ball incredibly, but at the same time.. the people who come to mind as having late career surges after suffering a dip in performance (Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Roger Clemens, Miguel Tejada) have all been implicated in some way shape or form as having been juicers. Maybe I should have reserved judgment till the middle of June, but I’m already starting to smell fish.

President of the Ramses Barden Fan Club

Fact on Villanova Sports

by Hoyadestroya85 on May 23, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’d like to hear your explanation of Fernando Tatis last year.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on May 23, 2009 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tatis hit all of like 10 HRs, though. So that's not really a fair comparison.

But I don’t think it was PEDs. I’m convinced it’s just an extremely hot streak fueled by an insane amount of luck, boosted by playing in a bandbox.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 23, 2009 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think so either

But Tatis was out of the game for several years and then came back to post an .800+ OPS. It’s unusual but not necessarily indicative of anything nefarious.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on May 23, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think he's refering to Ibanez as well

Since Tatis didn’t come back to a bandbox.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on May 23, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm willing to admit that Tatis's re-emergence is shady

if you’ll admit Ibanez suddenly turning into Barry Bonds is shady too

by cjmulrain on May 23, 2009 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No

Because independently I don’t think either of them is “shady.”

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on May 25, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tatis had a nice year for the Mets in 2008

but it wasn’t nearly as out-of-line with his career as Ibanez’s 2009 is so far.

Tatis: .372 wOBA in 2008 (.346 career)
Ibanez: .482 wOBA in 2009 (.353 career)

by Eric Simon on May 23, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Doesn’t really address the nearly five full seasons he missed, and the fact that he was really, truly horrible for his last three seasons prior to going to walk to earth, like Cain in Kung Fu. Using that as the “baseline,” Tatis’ resurgence is that much more surprising, in my opinion.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on May 23, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He missed five seasons

But its not like he just decided “hey, I’m gonna play baseball again” in 2008. He’d been back in the minors for two years, and showed off some pretty legitimate power in 2007, with a full-season ISO around .210.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on May 23, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Are we just talking about steroids?

Because if Ibanez is on steroids (or Tatis is, for that matter) I don’t really care much. If a player can take steroids and get stronger and become a better ballplayer, good for him and good for the sport. I’ll take more Mark McGwires and Barry Bondses than David Ecksteins and Luis Castillos any day of the week.

My point (which was apparently off-topic) is that Tatis is more likely to maintain his 2008 level of performance than Ibanez is to maintain his 2009 level of performance.

Whether either of those performances is pharmaceutically enhanced is immaterial to me.

by Eric Simon on May 23, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

+1

Thanks for the dose of sanity, Eric. I’m getting so tired of these PED witch-hunts. (Another thing that almost never gets discussed anymore: how little evidence there is to suggest that steroids improve baseball players’ performance.)

by anonymous on May 23, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So you think steroids don't improve performance?

At least in some cases?

by Mount17 on May 24, 2009 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

we agree

And might just be talking across each other. Ibanez 2009-to-date is hanging out in an unmaintainable part of the performance spectrum, while Tatis 2008-9 is far more sustainable. The OP’s whispery “what if” tone seemed to implicate anyone who has a late-career performance spike, which Tatis has, albeit from a much lower baseline.

Again, it’s far, far too early to call Ibanez 2009 anything more than a A. fluke; B. hot streak… pick your term.

Regardless, let’s find a witch to burn.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on May 23, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

x2 for the most part

I have an issue with steroids because of the weird side affects. but for the most part I could care less about PEDs, if MLB can’t test for HGH then I would hope all our players used it to heal faster.

by Gina on May 23, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

give Reyes and Delgado HGH FTW

by cjmulrain on May 23, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

CBP. Period.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 23, 2009 11:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Ibanez road stats:

.329/.372/.671 – 8 HR

Home:

.380/.464/.817 – 8 HR

He has one more extra base hit at home (a triple) than he does on the road, and six more walks, in only 10 fewer PAs. So the difference isn’t a “slugging” difference and is almost completely driven by singles and walks, which park size has little to do with.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on May 23, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Doesn't that just make it a less sustainable fluke then?

Again, he’s never had a full season LD% as low as his current 14.8% (fangraphs updated since last night) nor has he ever had a full season BABIP as high as his current .336. For a 37 year old player, if that doesn’t scream fluke, then what does? (For the record, I don’t think we’re using the word “fluke” or the term “hot streak” to have very different meanings). At least if it was a “slugging difference” that could be explained by a tangible change (ballpark).

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on May 23, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

sure

I’m not deluded enough to think that Ibanez is the new Albert Pujols. Of course this isn’t sustainable. The BABIP difference isn’t really explained by the ballpark, and it’s still way, way too early to call this any more than a fluke/hot streak, and it’s certainly not a Bonds-like “performance spike” yet.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on May 23, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Certainly fair enough then

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on May 23, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And his BABIP at home is .365, on the road, it’s .299.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on May 23, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think all good hitters go through periods like this

He’ll come back down to earth soon

by Gina on May 23, 2009 1:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

exactly

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on May 23, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Go Hoyas

JTIII baby

by James Kannengieser on May 23, 2009 3:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Where is he hitting his home runs?

8 HR @ Citizen’s Bank
3 HR @ Great American Ballpark
2 HR @ New Yankee Stadium
1 HR @ Coors Field
3 HR @ Nationals Park

What do most of those parks have in common?

by All Shook Down on May 23, 2009 4:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Excellent point

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on May 23, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Its not always the size of the ballparks..

he’s been absolutely crushing the ball.. over 420 feet with regularity.. he hasn’t been hitting Chase Utley home runs, he’s been destroying the ball.

President of the Ramses Barden Fan Club

Fact on Villanova Sports

by Hoyadestroya85 on May 23, 2009 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

This is purely anecdotal, but aside from CBP and Nationals park, those are all places where the ball has a tendency to really carry. Everyone’s been crushing homers at Yankee Stadium, I know a lot of hit that short porch, but there have been some absolute moon-shots there. Coors, no explanation needed. And Great American has those funky wind patterns in the gaps that just seem to speed the ball up if it finds its way into the air in the power alleys.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on May 23, 2009 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that's true..

maybe it will slow down when he plays at san diego or los angeles or san francisco

President of the Ramses Barden Fan Club

Fact on Villanova Sports

by Hoyadestroya85 on May 23, 2009 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just want to point out

Bonds was already a hall of famer. Sure, his post-1999 spike is fluky, but nowhere near as fluky as this. Not necessarily saying that means Ibanez = juicer, just saying that his spike seems much less sustainable

by cjmulrain on May 23, 2009 5:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It's a confluence of several flukes -- as Meddler said

He’s gotten to play in very hospitable home/road environs and/or against considerably weak pitching, and the underlying numbers also indicate there’ll be considerable regression.

Not that he wasn’t in line for a HR boost — no one’s doubting that, just by virtue of the move to CBP/out of Safeco. And the guy’s undoubtedly a very good hitter.

by jasondg on May 23, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am more surprised by his defense this year

Its actually been passable if not even good.

by Endys Game on May 23, 2009 6:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

me too

I thought he was going to be a clown out there and he’s actually looked quite good most of the time. We were badly misled by all the Lookout Landing .gifs, I guess.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on May 25, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's always been streaky.

Just now he’s streaky in the NL in CBP.

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on May 24, 2009 12:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Ibanez

Hits lefties well and will hit more homeruns because he is not in Safeco anymore.
Raul is a good solid player.

Lopez wants it away, and it's hit deep to left center, Andruw Jones on the run, this one has a chance... home run!!, Mike Piazza!, and the Mets lead 3 to 2!!
-Howie Rose
Gary Thorne=Simply the Best!

by The American Mr.Hockey on May 25, 2009 2:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He hits lefties well?

Really? His career dropoff against lefties is over .100 OPS points
.270 / .325 / .423 vs LHP
.295 / .357 / .502 vs RHP

Sure, he did last year, and this year he’s torching everyone, but that’s a combined total of 250 ABs vs LHP. Personally, I’ll take the previous 1075 ABs as the indicator of trends.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on May 25, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We've seen your Fanpost, man.

We all know your grasp of these things are iffy at best.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 25, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Watch the games, I could care less what a you think

Your a joke of a fan, and you take everything the Wilpon’s say to heart.
You probably think Daniel Murphy will be an MVP every year.

Lopez wants it away, and it's hit deep to left center, Andruw Jones on the run, this one has a chance... home run!!, Mike Piazza!, and the Mets lead 3 to 2!!
-Howie Rose
Gary Thorne=Simply the Best!

by The American Mr.Hockey on May 25, 2009 9:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

uh...

Who was this directed at? Because if it was at Meddler or me (the two people that responded to you), that would be laughable. If you’ve read anything we’ve EVER written on this site, you’d know how incorrect of a statement that is…

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 25, 2009 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm really tempted to say something here too

You know me, I love engaging trolls who type legibly (and thus I can tolerate reading what they write), but seriously, the irony behind this guy calling one of us a “joke of a fan” is just too much.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on May 25, 2009 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I just thought it was hilarious

that he said we “believe everything the Wilpons say”…when AA is probably one of the most skeptical/critical of any other Mets Blogs when it comes to our management, ownership, etc.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 25, 2009 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know

Plus, what did anyone ever do to hint at being big Wilpon fans? We gave Fernando Martinez his due props and we said Raul Ibanez has a bad track record against lefties. Yeah, that sounds a lot like Wilpon propaganda to me. ::facepalm:: I mean, if he’d said Omar, it would have made some semblance of sense, since he basically treats F! like a son and since he didn’t pursue Ibanez, but the Wilpons pretty much have nothing to do with any of that. They just dole out the dough, and depending on who you believe, maybe do some Manny-bashing behind closed doors. I mean, does he think the Wilpons are like, sliding rolls of cash under the table to BP to boost F!‘s translated minor league line while telling Omar they don’t have enough to (over)pay for Raul Ibanez?

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on May 25, 2009 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Although, I'm sure every Mets fans know

that Daniel Murphy’s going to win the MVP every year from now until he’s 40 years old, mostly because of his blue collar attitude and everyman approach to life.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 25, 2009 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hahaha

+1 and the fact that he drives a honda civic

President of the Ramses Barden Fan Club

Fact on Villanova Sports

by Hoyadestroya85 on May 26, 2009 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't forget

That the phillies have played the Nats 9 times this year already (12 by the end of May). The last series alone, he had 3 HR against them and their atrocious pitching. Once the Phillies play someone besides the Nationals, his #’s will regress back to normal.

by fphjr01 on May 25, 2009 9:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs