FanPost

Pythagoras Predicts: Memorial Day Quarter-Pole

Given each team's runs scored and runs allowed on the season, below is the projected final standings.  It assumes all 2,430 games are to be played and frankly my dear doesn't give a damn who has what games left against whom.  As such, take your usual grain of salt.  However, it's fun to compare this to where we are now.  As a bookkeeping note: two teams had their win total rounded up when conventional wisdom is to round down; this was done to eliminate record discrepancies caused by rounding errors.

So after the jump: your standings, analysis, and leading statistics.

So, without further ado, I give you the final standings, along with each team's (current) Pythagorean percentage.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

East

?-Philadelphia (90-72, .545)
?-New York (90-72, .561)
Atlanta (80-82, .483)
Florida (69-93, .420)
Washington (59-103, .390)

Analysis: Right now, the Mets are underachieving by 1 game and the Phillies overachieving by 1; that's enough to give the Phighters the current lead.  However, it's not enough to put them out of reach.  Just what this rivalry needs: a 1-game playoff.  Meanwhile, the stratification the rest of the way is insane; we knew Florida's hot start was a mirage, but when you're not even projected to win 70 after starting 11-1, the wheels have fallen off.

Central

C-Milwaukee (95-67, .577)
W-Saint Louis (92-70, .558)
Cincinnati (84-78, .511)
Chicago Cubs (84-78, .514)
Pittsburgh (82-80, .527)
Houston (72-90, .445)

Analysis: The good news for the rest of the league is that the Reds are a mirage; unfortunately, the Cards and (surprisingly) Brewers are for real.  The big story out of here, of course, is Pittsburgh finally getting over the hump; if they can turn around their close game fortunes, look for them to break .500 for the first time since Sid Bream.

West

C-Los Angeles (110-52, .677)
Colorado (76-86, .493)
San Francisco (73-89, .442)
Arizona (70-92, .435)
San Diego (67-95, .388)

Analysis: Are you kidding me?  We all knew the Dodgers were good, but this is insane!  LA has a chance to clinch a playoff berth by Labor Day, and I've never seen a 34-game division win.  The sad part is, if they can keep weathering Mannygate the way they are, they could very well win it all this year.  They will be the pennant favorite, no questions asked.  Meanwhile, San Diego's number may decrease if they trade Peavy, and Colorado as always defies all Pythagorean logic.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

East

C-Toronto (99-63, .613)
W-Boston (92-70, .561)
Tampa Bay (90-72, .575)
NY Yankees (84-78, .502)
Baltimore (64-98, .394)

Analysis: If anyone is going to be caught out by this prediction, it's the Blue Jays; by my count, they still have about 50 games left against Boston, Tampa, and New York, meaning this projected record may be the most fraudulent of the bunch.  Tampa is vastly underachieving, although given it's only the quarter-mark, that 15-2 result may be too heavy.  The Yankees will regret their new stadium sooner rather than later; bandboxes always lead to .500 teams.

Central

C-Detroit (97-65, .597)
Kansas City (84-78, .522)
Minnesota (80-82, .504)
Cleveland (71-91, .459)
Chicago Sox (64-98, .379)

Analysis: There's a lot of mediocrity in this division, and the Tigers look to ride it to a huge record.  Should the Blue Jays be less than expected against their Eastern brethren, expect Detroit to clinch home field in the ALCS.  Kansas City takes Minnesota's place as the Small Town Darling by finishing over .500.  Cleveland will recover, while Chicago will fall apart.

West

C-Texas (92-70, .557)
LA Angels (84-78, .510)
Seattle (69-93, .412)
Oakland (67-95, .424)

Analysis: It appears Texas finally has some pitching to match their hitting; thus far, they have allowed 197 runs, which is near the league average of 200.1 for the season.  (In fact, their 4.80 league runs allowed is within .002 of the league average.)  The Angels look to be a mediocre team this year, and with the other two teams struggling, the Rangers appear to have a playoff in their future.  Not much to say here, as this is a very unspectacular division.

MORE NUMBERS!

League-Wide Run Average: 4.80 per team per game through 625 games (6004 runs)

Best Offenses: 1. Philadelphia, 5.78 R/g; 2. Tampa Bay, 5.66; 3. NY Yankees, 5.60

Worst Offenses: 30. San Diego, 3.71; 29. San Francisco, 3.78; 28. Seattle, 3.81

The Mets Are: 15th, 4.88

Best Pitching/Defenses: 1. LA Dodgers, 3.74; 2. Saint Louis, 4.21; 3. Toronto, 4.22

Worst Pitching/Defenses: 30. Washington, 6.46; 29. Baltimore, 6.05; 28. Cleveland, 5.63

The Mets Are: 8th, 4.32

Most Total Runs: 1. Tampa Bay, 249; 2. Toronto, 239; 3. NY Yankees, 235

Fewest Total Runs: 30. San Francisco, 155; 29. San Diego, 156; 28. Chicago Sox, 160

The Mets Are: 15th, 200

Fewest Total Runs Allowed: 1. LA Dodgers, 161; 2. San Francisco, 174; 3. NY METS and Saint Louis, 177

Most Total Runs Allowed: 30. Washington, 265; 29. Baltimore, 254; 28. Cleveland, 242

The Mets Are: T-3rd, 177

Best Run Difference: 1. LA Dodgers, +72 (1.674/gm); 2. Toronto, +49 (1.089/gm); 3. Detroit, +39 (0.975/gm)

Worst Run Difference: 30. Washington, -53 (-1.293/gm); 29. Baltimore, -49 (-1.167/gm); 28. Chicago Sox, -45 (-1.098/gm)

The Mets Are: 8th, +23 (0.561/gm)

That's the Quarter-Pole report.  Remember, though: lies, damn lies, and statistics.  There's a lot of season to go, and anything can happen down the stretch.

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.

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