Who should be the Interim Closer?

With Francisco Rodriguez suffering from back spasms, the Mets are forced to confront the harsh reality that they could be forced, for the time being, to utilize a new closer. Based on Jerry Manuel's past decisions, it wouldn't be too surprising if Jerry found a "gangsta" reliever while watching video of a High School Game in AA who he "liked," but for the time being, let's examine the two most likely candidates to fill the closer role.

The first candidate, Bobby Parnell, is a flame-throwing 24 year old right-hander, whose spot on the roster was by no means assured coming into training camp. So far this year Parnell has excelled with a 1.86 ERA, despite a BABIP of .347. His competition will be the veteran J.J Putz who only two years ago was in the midst of a dominant season.  With that being said, let’s take a look at what the two pitchers have in common, and what they can be expected to bring to the table.

via blog.nj.com

PARNELL: ADVANTAGES

1. Despite statistical anomalies, Parnell is having a great year: so far on this season, Parnell’s IFH% (Infield Hit Percentage) is a mind-blowing 27.3. Sadly, that’s not a typo: Twenty seven percent of the ground balls Parnell has induced on the year have resulted in hits. Perhaps it can be argued that Parnell is simply a horrible fielder, but this seems like an outlier.
2.  Parnell’s stuff appears to deceive hitters: So far, Parnell’s Z-swing % (Z-Swing% - Percentage of pitches a batter swings at inside the strike zone) is only 66 percent, meaning that 1/3 of the swings taken against Parnell are on pitches out of the strike zone, which is second amongst Mets relievers, behind K-Rod.

PARNELL: DISADVANTAGES

1. Despite being a Fly Ball Pitcher, Parnell has yet to give up a home run. This would seem to be an anomaly, as Parnell induces fly balls 40 percent of the time. While a large number of the fly balls (30%) end up as infield flies, this still leaves nearly a quarter of the balls put in play against Parnell as fly balls to the outfield. Statistics and probability dictate that some of those balls will eventually find their way out of the park.
2. Parnell’s secondary pitches have been largely ineffective- According to Fangraphs, Parnell has been throwing his fastball a whopping 88 percent of the time, which is a significant increase from the 75 percent of the time he threw his fastball last year. In addition, his slider and changeup are a combined -8 runs BELOW average over the course of a hundred pitches. In essence, Parnell is almost completely dependent on his fastball, which could hamper anyone, but especially a closer.

If Jerry Manuel was looking solely for experience, there is no question he would turn to J.J Putz. In fact, it has been hinted that a contributing factor to Putz’s militant mediocrity this year has been his lack of "aggression."  Since Fangraphs has not yet constructed a tool to measure adrenaline/pitch, we’ll have to confine ourselves to his stats.

via d.yimg.com

PUTZ: ADVANTAGES

1. A SUPERIOR ARSENAL OF PITCHES: So far this year, Putz has been throwing his splitter and slider with devastating results, as they’ve combined to be +13 runs ABOVE average over the course of one hundred pitches.  Of course, as we’ll get to later, these pitches have had to be better because his fastball has been subpar. 
   
2. EXPERIENCE- While some members of the Amazin Avenue community are quick to mock certain "intangibles," it is clear that Manuel puts some stock into them, and Putz certainly has the experience you want in a closer. As a once-dominant closer on the Mariners, Putz will likely be familiar with every new scenario a closer could face.

PUTZ: DISADVANTAGES

1. A SIGNIFICANT DROPOFF IN EVERY MAJOR STATISTICAL CATEGORY: On the year, Putz has lowered his Strikeout percentage, swinging strike percentage, and Swinging AND Looking strike percentage. The only areas where Putz has improved are in the largely luck-based categories of Home Run/Fly Ball percentage and Infield Fly percentage, and BABIP. Ouch
2. PUTZ HAS ALSO LOST VELOCITY FROM LAST YEAR- Over the last year, Putz’s average fastball has gone down from around 95 miles an hour to around 93. Although his velocity was up tonight in a save situation, which could lend some credibility to the argument that Putz simply needs "aggression," the three consecutive hard hit balls would seem to indicate a more troubling trend.

So, What do you think?