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Asking The Catcher Question

A growing number of Mets fans think Omir Santos is the best catcher on the Mets roster, without any real justification. Meanwhile, another contengency of fans believes Ramon Castro, who has hit more homers in the majors than Santos has played games, should be the starter. With Brian Schneider likely back from injury this Friday, many feel Minaya has a tough choice to make between Santos and Castro. With so many either pro-Santos or pro-Castro, however, is this choice a false dilemma? Maybe Schneider should be released; the Mets are on the hook for his 4.9 Million dollar salary either way. So which combination of two catchers best helps the Mets going forward?

First, Castro is the hands-down best option, health permitting. Granted, Castro's health is never assured, but that's not a reason to release or trade him. His bat's still there. His 8.3 % HR/FB before the Sox game would be the lowest of his career, making it no surprise he went deep. His plate discipline has been better, and given a little better luck with the balls-in-play,  Castro could beat his .753 OPS from last year. His ZiPS Rest-of-Season projection, a nifty new feature at FanGraphs, is a .325 wOBA (.741 OPS).

ZiPS projects Santos to hit a .272 wOBA (.610 OPS) for the rest of the season. Over 200 PA, the difference between a .272 wOBA and .325 wOBA is 10 runs or one win. Santos probably won't make up the difference in defense either, as, with the exception of one anomaly year in A-ball, minor leaguers ran all over Santos.

If the Santos-defenders dismiss these projections and think his .750 OPS is the product of a legitimate improvement, they need to realize the absurdity of his stats in the tiny sample size. Boasting a minor league-career .303 OBP in the minors, Santos has swung at a terrible 35.8% of pitches outside the zone. By contrast, Castro has swung at a career 20% of pitches outside the team, Schneider 23%. Anything >30% is certified hacker. Maybe you remember:

3534531979_f6dc155c9e_o_medium

Despite this handicap, short-swing has managed a 82.1 % contact and a ridiculous 30.2 % line drives. Considering his 15.5 career LD% in the minors, Santos' success seems pretty fluky. Granted he hit a career best 21.1% last year in Norfolk, but even then he posted just a .649 OPS. At best, maybe Santos could be a .250 hitter in the majors, but that's an extremely empty .250. I'll take Castro's .240 average and .430 slugging.

Schneider, on the other hand, is projected to repeat last year's .310 wOBA, which may be a tad optimistic. Still, even if he just hits around a .660 OPS, he's Omir Santos with plate discipline and a throwing arm.

Given Schneider and Castro's recent injury histories, it's almost a no-brainer to go with the scenario that allows you to keep all 3 catchers. Even if they were perfectly healthy, however, the argument for Santos seems to have a lot more to do with one homer than any meaningful evidence. It's not a great story, but the Schneider-Castro time share is still the best option for the Mets. Castro-Santos could be bearable, if Castro gets as many PA as his health permits. Santos-Schneider is a terrible idea, but sadly, very possible.

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Perhaps I just hang out here too much

… but I haven’t seen a lot of Santos-for-mayor kind of talk that is worth taking seriously—I’m discounting the standard “start him!” you get from fans after a couple of poetic hits. We saw the same thing with Robinson Cancel last year. Most sane people (obviously, except for Manuel) see Santos as strictly backup/emergency material. (Well, except when they get all worked up into a lather.)

Keep the three seems, if history is any guide, the most likely option since the Mets are no stranger to the 3-headed catcher. I sense that the real discussion is Santos’ merit vis a vis Schneider—not Castro. “Chin strap beard” is clearly the best option, but we know he won’t hold up if he plays everyday. (He’s like the bastard lovechild of Moises Alou and Charles Barkley. He got Moises’ health and Barkley’s fat ass.) So another guy will have to play… a lot. The real question to me is whether, if someone put a gun to my head and forced a choice, I should choose Santos or Schneider. I know that historically both walk up to the plate with a chopstick stuck inside a rolled up newspaper but how do they compare to each other?

"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin

by dcrockett17 on May 25, 2009 7:45 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Matt Cerrone's in favor of cutting Castro.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 25, 2009 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Damn. I guess I stand corrected on the sane people part.

I’ll amend the statement to say, “Most people who are susceptible to rational argument…”

"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin

by dcrockett17 on May 25, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think the big question is

whether the weaker of Santos/Schneider is more useful to the team than whoever would get the 25-man roster spot if one was cut.

I say no. Angel Pagan/whoever is more useful than Santos.

by Aeoni on May 25, 2009 11:13 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I was pretty happy with Schneider's 11.1% BB rate last season

He takes the walk when it’s given to him and that’s ideal when you’re batting 8th. That’s a lot more than I can say about Santos.

by All Shook Down on May 25, 2009 11:58 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

He's the Tatis of catchers.

and once Santos is injured, Tatis will become the Tatis of catchers.

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on May 25, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I lol'd

Cool story, bro.

"I was so frustrated [Saturday], I [could have said] anything," ~Oliver Perez

by Lance Johnson on May 25, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No Way Wilpons eat salary

The Wilpons will simply never eat a salary. That said, I still think that, in the end, we’re better off with Schneder/Castro.

"Never throw a slider to The Glider."

- Ed Charles, No. 5

by The Glider on May 25, 2009 12:00 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

which is stupid. i understand keeping him on the team

but more money =/= more playing time.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 25, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This only matters

because Santos isn’t embarrassing himself right now. If we assume he returns to his replacement-level self then there’s no question that Schneider and Castro are the two most valuable of the three regardless of salary. Once we’ve accepted that, we’re left with the original question of figuring out the optimal playing time split for Schneider/Castro.

Ideally the Mets will wait for Santos to cool off before demoting him and activating Schneider. The next best option is to just demote Santos while he is still hitting admirably. The worst option is to dump/trade Castro while keeping Santos and activating Schneider, because there’s almost zero chance Santos is still a useful player a month from now.

by Eric Simon on May 25, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like

your use of “cool off” for the guy who is 4 for his last 20 w/one XBH. Expectations are low for Omir.

by Zwill on May 25, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sounds like the most rational thing to do.

"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin

by dcrockett17 on May 25, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I can't fathom cutting Castro right now

The way injuries have gone with this team, the fact that they can actually claim to be short Ramon Martinez, you just can’t give up resources. It would be terrible, terrible risk management, forget even the fact that Castro’s better than Santos.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 25, 2009 1:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Also

The other legitimate question here: Whither Javier Valentin? He’s clearly a superior option to Santos. Assuming he has any kind of arm left (which is a big assumption, he was a good defensive catcher, except in his last real MLB season, 2008, when baserunners were able to run pretty wild on him), he has a career .712 Major Leage OPS and in his first week or so in Buffalo has a 1.140 OPS with three homers in under 40 PAs. If Santos does go down to make room for Schneider, and the Mets eventually need to callup another catcher when their China-doll tandem of Castro/Schneider suffers the inevitable injury, I may scream if Santos gets the call instead of Valentin.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 25, 2009 1:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

JV

I agree on Valentin. He’s a better option right now assuming he’s healthy enough to catch. I’d like to think there is no way we’re letting any of these guys get away considering the injury rate of BS and Castro.

by whynot on May 25, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Josh Thole

I fear the organization may find Thole expendable because “we have Santos”. Is that a plausible fear? Omar did claim to learn from the Jesus Flores fiasco.

by All Shook Down on May 25, 2009 2:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I hope/think he's learned from Flores.

I’m more concerned they think Havens is not a legit/must-keep prospect because of his low batting average.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 25, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Havens

Don’t even think that about Havens. Though I think if we try to land a big piece in a trade, he’s could be moved. Scouts seems to like him.

by whynot on May 25, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wonder how much the brass is...

pro-Santos versus anti-Castro.

That is, do they think Santos is better than he is, or do they simply dislike/distrust/disrespect Castro that much? The distinction is six in one hand/half dozen in the other when considering relative playing time between those two. But, it probably matters if/when thinking about other catching options when Meddler’s “China-doll tandem” (nicely put) becomes a problem.

"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin

by dcrockett17 on May 25, 2009 3:14 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

For some reason

I felt compelled to offer some visual backup.

by Mount17 on May 25, 2009 3:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

"without any real justification"

With the caveat that I want Castro to stay and get the bulk of the playing time, that’s not really fair – their justification is the fact that right now Santos is hitting just as well as Castro and has had a couple of big hits. It’s not really compelling justification, as we all know, b/c everything he’s ever done in his career suggests regression, but it certainly is a justification that I can understand.

Also, this is probably the 4th or 5th week in a row that I’ve seen the phrase “when he stops hitting in a month” or something like it. I know and you know and Omir probably knows that he’s going to stop hitting eventually, but let’s stop putting a time frame on it that there’s absolutely no way of proving, b/c it makes us look arrogant on one hand, and wrong on the other. Let’s just enjoy the ride while he is hitting, and hope the front office makes the right moves.

by cjmulrain on May 25, 2009 3:34 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The problem is

He kinda did stop hitting for a while, and then he had a few more big hits to bring his OPS back to the .700+ range. Before his big day in Boston, he was 3 for his last 19. the most stunning part of that stretch being that he actually managed to draw four walks.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 25, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But the phrase

“when he stops hitting in a month” is inaccurate. He isn’t hitting now. He can’t stop what he already isn’t doing. Or something.

by Zwill on May 25, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes

and where in the article did I say that or “something like it”?

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on May 25, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

actually

it was Eric’s comment, not in your post. I read all the comments and then made my reply…should have put that paragraph directly under Eric’s comment.

by cjmulrain on May 25, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Best part of that homerun last night was his reaction.

As soon as he finished swinging, he had this borderline screaming happy luck. Like he immediately realized he made good contact on it, and that in and of itself was worth celebrating.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 25, 2009 5:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah that was priceless

But running off of Eric’s comment in the Game Wrap:

Santos, blissfully unaware that he was in fact Omir Santos, jumped on Papelbon’s first offering and drove it towards the zenith of the Green Monster.

The reaction wasn’t because of how he’d hit the ball, it was because a split second later he realized that he was, in fact, Omir Santos.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 25, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cerrone's post is a perfect example of someone who has made absolutely no effort to learn about advanced statistics

From a post today:

Omir Santos is hitting .270, Ramon Castro is hitting .253

This is posted with the implication that Santos > Castro because of batting average. Let’s rephrase this silliness:

Omir Santos’s wOBA is .311, Ramon Castro’s is .327

by James Kannengieser on May 25, 2009 7:11 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I saw that.

Representative fanbase fail.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 25, 2009 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Another subliminal in the preview to tonight's game
…from what i can gather, the Mets do not plan to put church or reyes on the disabled list, at least not today…

…in other words, manuel has Daniel Murphy, Jeremy Reed and Ramon Castro, the back-up catcher, on available to him on the bench tonight…

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on May 25, 2009 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ugh

Yeah I sub-consciously caught that. When I read it, I just felt dirty, and decided not to continue pondering it.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 25, 2009 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What ever happened to "show me"?

You can take all the statistics you want and statistical analysis is a wonderful tool, but Ramon Castro isn’t doing anything that Omir Santos isn’t doing right now. That’s fact.

Going completely off of his Minor League Statistics to evaluate him is like looking at Gary Sheffield’s historical stats and thinking he is going to hit .320 42 HR 120 RBI. He is not the same player anymore and the same can be said for Omir Santos. Players “figure it out” and this is the only real opportunity he has gotten at the Major League level and he’s proven worthy so far. I’m not saying that 27 (?) games worth of performances is equivelant to years of Minor League Statistics, but it’s also apples and oranges.

This is not to say he is a better long-term option than Castro, but rather to speak to all the “Non Big League Caliber Player” comments out there. It’s fine to speculate, but when all is said and done, Omir Santos is a valuable piece to have.

You can come back at me with two words: Robinson Cancel, and be 100% correct, but I think Santos is just flat a better player. He has his faults and I don’t think that he is a Starting Caliber Catcher, but I’m glad we have him.

by AnthonyR on May 26, 2009 12:21 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Problem is

injuries aside, Castro is a starting-caliber catcher.

I will not allow the denigration of the life essence

by GenJackRipper on May 26, 2009 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Absolutely, and I'm not advocating cutting him by any means

But the “injuries aside” caveat shows you Santos’ value. When/if Castro goes down, he is more valuable than he gets credit for.

If Castro could stay healthy, I don’t think anyone can debate who the better player is (except maybe Jerry).

The smart play is to option Santos and wait until he is needed when either:

a.) Castro goes down
b.) Schneider can’t hit enough for his defense to be worth it anymore
c.) Rosters expand

by AnthonyR on May 26, 2009 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think the problem is that people we on the internet like to overstate things for the sake of hilarity

In all seriousness, it does seem like Omir might have just enough of a swing and just enough athleticism behind the plate to be a positive value player. Not a good player, mind you, but a positive value player nonetheless.

The problems arise when he’s starting more than half the team’s games when you also have Ramon Castro on your roster, as well as a reliable major league vet in the minors in Javier Valentin, and the plethora of marginal veteran catchers are keeping top prospect at the position, Josh Thole, in Bingo when he probably belongs in Buffalo, where he can learn defense from a solid crew of veteran pitchers. He could be a better player than any of these guys if he can learn defense reliably in the near future, and could be a reasonable member of the big league club as soon as next year, when Castro and Schneider’s large contracts come off the books, potentially saving the organization a headache and a major expenditure.

Also, Sheffield’s not a good example. 100 years of baseball history tells you to expect a natural decline from a 40 ear old player. That same set of data tells you not to get too excited about a 28 year old player with a short-term performance spike that only is only marginally better than anything they’ve done before.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 26, 2009 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I'm playing Devils Advocate a bit

Because I truly believe that the guy is better than he gets credit for. The Sheffield example is just that, a 40 year old player in decline versus a 28 year player on the rise (how much of a rise and for how long, we just don’t know). It’s just to say that it may not tell the whole story.

I’m not “GM-ing” the team or taking in to account your valid point about Thole, I’m just saying the dude has done a job for us and I’m probably more happy that we have him than most. Nothing more, nothing less.

If I had Santos and Castro and I had to cut one of them, I’d cut Santos.

by AnthonyR on May 26, 2009 1:10 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Definitely

On that that, I agree with you. GenJack also just made a nice comment in the postgame thread making a point similar to the one I think you’re trying to make, which is that its possible that he’s become slightly better than his minor league career indicates. Obviously, the jury is still out (remember how you felt about Marlon Anderson in 2005/2007? Damian Easley in the first half of 2007?), but I can at least buy that as a viable hypothesis for now.

Also, aside from the fact that just have an affinity for minor league analysis, I do think that Thole could be at least the second most important catcher in the organization right now, and that they should be thinking about his future rather than worrying about how close to average they can be at catcher right now. Thole might actually be a decent top of the order bat as a catcher, kind of like Paul LoDuca’s contact skills with an OBP. The only other Catcher issue that seems like a major concern to me is keeping Castro healthy, because at this point Castro or Valentin + Schneider or Santos is pretty much fine, and any tandem of Group A and Group B there is more than adequate and more or less a non-difference. Unless you’re prepared to throw money at the position to make it better right now, best to do everything you can to save money with Thole next year if at all possible.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 26, 2009 1:25 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Meh
You can take all the statistics you want and statistical analysis is a wonderful tool, but Ramon Castro isn’t doing anything that Omir Santos isn’t doing right now. That’s fact.

Ramon Castro is doing the following things that Omir Santos isn’t doing right now:
1. Walking
2. Throwing out half of his potential basestealers
3. Not swinging at everything
4. Not clogging up the clubhouse toilet
5. Not being liked by Matt Cerrone
6. Putting hilarious fake barf in Jose Reyes’ locker

If you think Omir Santos has “figured it out” and is suddenly talented enough to keep hitting 30% LD, far be it from me to tell you otherwise. I just think it’s pretty dismissive to weight a tiny sample size of major league games over a career of sucking against inferior competition. It’s not like the guy is that young.

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on May 26, 2009 1:25 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not going as far as you are taking it and I'm not saying Santos is the better player.

I’m saying that I think a lot of the negativity toward Santos is borne out of the fact that he is playing more than Castro.

I hate to defend Jerry, but the reason that he is playing more isn’t because he is the “better player”, it is because he is the “less flawed” player. If Ramon could catch 110 games a year, he could be an All-Star….but he can’t.

 If Ramon couldn’t carry the lion’s share of the catching duties at any other point in his career, what makes anyone think he can do it now? This is why he is the “Back-up”. If it is for any other reason, then I don’t get it.

Santos is playing well enough RIGHT NOW to allow this to occur. When/if such time occurs when he is not, you’ll see ANYONE become the starting Catcher over him.

by AnthonyR on May 26, 2009 1:49 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There's a line between keeping a fragile player healthy

And favoring his weaker counterpart. Santos may be playing adequately right now, but that’s the best you can expect from him. He shouldn’t even be splitting time with Castro, 60/40 split would be a fine gamble for Castro’s health, but if anything, Jerry’s doing it the other way around. If that’s because Castro’s a bit banged up, fine, I concede that’s possible, but he actually genuinely seems to favor Castro.

Also, Cerrone is apparently trying to sell his readership on Santos>Castro. Perhaps not relevant in the grand scheme, but still frustrating.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 26, 2009 2:24 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I certainly am not saying Santos > Castro

I don’t believe that at all, in fact I believe strongly that Castro is the better player in the long-term. I guess I’m not entitled or qualified to run a Mets related blog (and if that is the qualification, I’m quite glad).

by AnthonyR on May 26, 2009 2:56 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No I know

I didn’t mean to attribute that to you, lol, just that I think that’s where the anger on this blog comes from, the fact that the “voice” of our fellow fans can be so gullible about these things.

Also, I meant to say Jerry seems to genuinely favor Santos, but I wrote Castro by accident. The Jerry/Cerrone/Santos live triangle is as much the issue as Santos’s actual level of play.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 26, 2009 3:10 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Damnit, the Jerry/Cerrone/Santos LOVE triangle

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 26, 2009 3:10 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's wicked late...that will happen.

I’m with you…I’m not normally a big blog guy but I’ve taken a look at Metsblog since I’ve been over here and the guy seems to be a little off with his reasoning on certain topics. But hey, I bust my ass everyday and he spends all day writing about the Mets so who is smarter?

by AnthonyR on May 26, 2009 3:14 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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