Fernando Community Projection - UPDATED!

by Sokojoe on May 27, 2009 9:44 AM EDT

Per zwill's suggestion, I dropped the highest OPS and lowest OPS guesses.

Our current AA projection for Martinez stand at:

.260/.307/.414/.721

The highest BA guess was .280 (Major,) the highest OBP was .330 (Major,) the highest SLG was .460 (twon8) and highest combined OPS was .785 (twon8)

The lowest BA guess was .200 (AnthonyR,) OBP .230 (Anthony R,) SLG .320 (Anthony R,) and lowest OPS was .550 (Anthony R.)

James commented:

Maybe I'm being overly cynical But I fear this: Daniel Murphy:Metsblog::Fernando Martinez:AA

Personally, I feel our F! comments are more tongue-in-cheek than actually expecting the 20 year old to have an .900+ OPS or anything like that. I just wanted to see what the community thought Fernando's triple slash would be in the majors this year. If you would like to participate, please put your expected triple slashes in the headline of your comment, you can add whatever you want in the body. After a little bit, I'll average all of our projections in order to arrive at AA's projection. As an added bonus, whoever is closest at the end of the season will win some swag. I'll personally mail* the winner an autographed photo of Eric Simon.* I'll start off:

.270/.320/.420

*email

*random cat gif

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.

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Comments

.275/.315/.400

I’d really prefer a random cat gif autographed by Eric Simon, if you can manage it.

"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on May 27, 2009 9:47 AM EDT reply actions

I'm pretty sure that can be arranged

by Eric Simon on May 27, 2009 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions

.411/.489/.784

No, but seriously – .261/.311/.455

by cjmulrain on May 27, 2009 10:09 AM EDT reply actions

.270/.320/.450

by TheBigStapler on May 27, 2009 10:10 AM EDT reply actions

.250/.305/.395

I’m not especially sanguine given his lack of discipline in the minors. I hope to be pleasantly surprised.

by Eric Simon on May 27, 2009 10:11 AM EDT reply actions

That's seems right to me

I mean, he’s 20 years old. He probably almost peed his pants, striking out in his first at bat.

by Lunkwill Fook on May 27, 2009 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Nah

he’d faced Stammen in two games already this year. He had that much going for him, except for the fact that he went 0-for both of those games.

"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on May 27, 2009 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions

The difference was this:

Stammen was making his second major league start. Fernando was making his first big league appearance. Stammen butterflies < Fernando’s.

by Lunkwill Fook on May 27, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Sure

I’m just saying it’s not like he was facing Johan Santana for the first time or something in addition to it being his first game. It was his first game, but he got to face a familiar pitcher.

"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on May 27, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions

.200/.230/.320

It’s like the Price is Right. This is my “$1” bid.

I pray I lose, but I just don’t think he’s ready yet. On the upside, those numbers are Ruthian compared to Ramon Martinez.

by AnthonyR on May 27, 2009 10:37 AM EDT reply actions

You really think he's gonna be THAT bad?

I mean, he’s still tearing up the ball in AAA. And yeah, he’s not ready…but a .230 OBP?

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 27, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions

I kinda do. He's very young and he's being put in to a tough spot.

He won’t have much protection (if any at all) and still needs to work on his plate discipline. I also don’t think he’ll be up for that long.

That said, the guy is incredibly talented and once he continues to get experience, he should be a nice player for us.

by AnthonyR on May 27, 2009 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions

But still, a .230 OBP and a .320 is like sub-sub replacement for a corner outfielder.

I don’t think so.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 27, 2009 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah

that would make him the worst hitter in the majors by a pretty wide margin.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on Jun 1, 2009 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions

.265 / .310 / .430

I could see a good percentage of his hits going for extra bases, but a struggle to enter the realm of the basepaths.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 27, 2009 10:47 AM EDT reply actions

Agreed

I expect more power than patience, which is consistent with this minor league track record. That should improve over time.

by Eric Simon on May 27, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions

Exactly

Playing in Double-A at age 18 is like playing in the Majors in 1998 without taking steroids. Tough to be patient when the pitchers are strong enough to knock the bat out of your hands.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 27, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions

260/310/410

~75 PAs before demotion. Then crushes AAA pitching for two months and contributes to the big club in Sept.

by Zwill on May 27, 2009 11:30 AM EDT reply actions

.270/.315/.410

by metsman07 on May 27, 2009 11:39 AM EDT reply actions

.270/.300/.430ish.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 27, 2009 12:41 PM EDT reply actions

.265/.325/.400

by meigs1414 on May 27, 2009 1:32 PM EDT reply actions

.240/.290/.370

Mets solution: get Tokuchi Toua (ace starting pitcher, 1B, cleanup hitter AND manager).

by Michkin on May 27, 2009 1:36 PM EDT reply actions

I saw Martinez in the minors a couple of times

He looked nervous last night. Nevertheless, Martinez is 20. He has raw skill.

Lopez wants it away, and it's hit deep to left center, Andruw Jones on the run, this one has a chance... home run!!, Mike Piazza!, and the Mets lead 3 to 2!!
-Howie Rose
Gary Thorne=Simply the Best!

by The American Mr.Hockey on May 27, 2009 1:47 PM EDT reply actions

.280/.330/.450

by Major on May 27, 2009 1:56 PM EDT reply actions

Seems like the consensus is

decent average, low on base, good slugging

I guess I can agree with that. .270/.325/.430

by supermets on May 27, 2009 2:15 PM EDT reply actions

.250/.300/.383

I dont think he is ready for major league pitching and he should be sent back down after Church and Beltran are healthy. I hope we don’t bring him back up until about this time next year if he continues to progress. At only 20yrs old he is really young even for a rookie and I think the Mets are rushing him because they are in dire straights with the lineup right now…

by JDizzzy on May 27, 2009 4:25 PM EDT reply actions

Not really.

He’s been hitting the ball pretty well in AAA…if you checked stats, you’d see his power is probably better than pretty much anyone on this team, like RIGHT NOW.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 27, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions

what are you talking about

Exactly…He was hitting the ball pretty well in AAA…pretty well. He doesn’t compare with other prospects that were called up, LaPorta, Reimold, Fox, and Wieters. (Wieters numbers are similar but he is a catcher). All these guys were doing significantly better that FMart so I think he needs more time and more at bats. The ave age for a rook is around 24 I beleive so at 20 FMart is too young IMO. Sorry if you dont agree…but I think you need to check the stats yourself.

by JDizzzy on May 28, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Have you looked at his translated isolated power?

That’s the number that shows the power a prospect would be hitting the ball in the MLB RIGHT NOW based on their translated minor league stats. F! would lead the team. That’s good enough for me, especially when he’s probably an average defensive RF.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 28, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions

I understand, I guess I just dont agree

I’d still have the say that his slash line doesn’t compare with other call ups and regardless, his numbers in AAA weren’t outta this world. I understand you are looking at isolated power but as Gina pointed out that is a very small sample size and what clinches it for me is that he is only 20. He doesn’t even really look like an imposing slugger right now in terms of his size so I am shocked you think he has more power than pretty much everyone on the Mets (despite the fact the Mets are light on sluggers especially when it comes to corner OF/IF)

Hey I hope I am wrong, I want F! and Mets to succeed as much as anyone but I am concerned he needs to mature both in body and mind being that he is only 20. I think he showed a bit of that need to mature last night on the pop out (btw all that power took the ball about 2 feet, LOL)

Anyway can you think of any other guys have come up as 21 yr olds or younger and had an immediate impact? I can only think of Pujols and I think he was 21.

by JDizzzy on May 28, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Dwight Gooden, for starters.

But also, I don’t think he has to succeed now to his potential to be a decidedly better option than anyone else. Who else would we have called up? Mike Lamb? Wily Mo Pena? Fernando Nieve? No.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 28, 2009 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Jose Reyes

and he was only 19.

by cjmulrain on May 29, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah the problem is its an incredibly small sample size

He’s been doing well but it could just as easily be a small sample size fluke as it could be progression. He was on fire for like 1.5 months last season before falling back down to earth.

by Gina on May 28, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions

.245/.290/.430

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on May 27, 2009 4:32 PM EDT reply actions

.260/.325/460

by twon8 on May 27, 2009 5:32 PM EDT reply actions

.250/.295/.390

by James Kannengieser on May 27, 2009 6:43 PM EDT reply actions

Also I'm kinda confused what my comment had to do with the rest of the FanShot

But whatever, go with it!

by James Kannengieser on May 27, 2009 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions

You were afraid AA was overhyping Fernando

I just wanted to see what AA’s expectation actually is of him.

by Sokojoe on May 27, 2009 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions

For the sake of argument

Might it make sense to throw out the max and mins?

by Zwill on May 28, 2009 9:49 PM EDT reply actions

Haha, yeah.

If Anthony R. didn’t project him to be like one of the worst 10 players in baseball, it would definitely be higher.
Just messin’ with you there, kid.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 28, 2009 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions

George Reeves is slightly before my time

Although I do recall him from the early days of Nick at Nite.

by Zwill on May 28, 2009 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Hey, like I said, it was my $1 bid because everyone was predicting significantly higher than I thought.

Looks like I’m dead on balls accurate so far. Nice day he had today though…hopefully he’ll keep it going.

Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.

by AnthonyR on May 30, 2009 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions

What? You can't be accurate about ANYTHING in three games...

Even if he had hit a HR every at-bat thus far, it’d be wayyyyyyyy too early…Jeez.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 30, 2009 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions

The words "so far" being the key to the statement

I don’t want him to fail, and I don’t think he will. I’m just saying that he is in a hell of a tough spot for a 20 year old kid and I don’t think he’ll be up that long.

Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.

by AnthonyR on May 30, 2009 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions