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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

Apparently the Mets think that the Omir Santos who has an OPS of .650 in 2,429 minor league plate appearances has magically become the .268/.300/.437 "beast" of 80 plate appearances in 2009.

Ramon Castro has hit .253/.322/.430 so far in 2009, which is 1) better than Omir Santos' line, 2) in sync with his career norms, 3) better than Brian Schneider's career averages, and 4) far, far better than Omir Santos' career averages.

He should be a nice pickup for a team that actually understands how to evaluate baseball players. The Mets are not such a team.

over 2 years ago Lastings_large_cross_-black_glow_tiny JohnPeterson 52 comments 1 recs  | 

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why hate Santos?

hate the front office, but hating Santos is just stupid. The guy is playing pretty well, so at this point we should just cheer him on as much as possible and hope this trade ends up being not as bad as it seems right now.

by cjmulrain on May 30, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Because if we get lucky and Santos isn't awful

Then no one is going to take a look at the front office. Using a bad proccess and ending up with a good result accidently just leads less pressure on Omar, and we’ll be stuck in a limbo of being just good enough to keep Omar from losing his job but held back enough by his poor decisions to not actually ever accomplish anything. If more of his bad processed blew up in his face like Ollie has so far, obviously no one could have expected Ollie to be this bad but still bad process, then maybe 1. Pressure from somewhere would force him to open his eyes to better models for decision making, 2. Hell maybe the Wilpons will open their eyes and either fire him. If he constantly just skates by then we’re going to end up as one of those awesome teams that never managed to accomplish anything.

Obviously just Omir Santos sucking isn’t enough to change anything but I’m talking about overall why it’s hard for me to hope Omar’s poor decisions end up working out.

by Gina on May 30, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

I mean

I get all that, but I can’t hate a guy wearing a Mets jersey unless he throws firecrackers at fans or something like that, and as far as I can tell Santos seems like a great guy who’s having a disproportionately good season. I’m gonna root for him to defy the odds and keep it going, even if it does justify Omar’s bad process.

by cjmulrain on May 30, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's like

The Mets have three catchers. They want to trade the best of the three. What the hell for?

by JohnPeterson on May 29, 2009 6:20 PM EDT reply actions  

because they're idiots?

This franchise is run by morons. When Santos ends up with a sub-.600 OPS at the end of the year, I’ll remember this, and I bet there will be quite a bit of howling from people who supported him over Castro.

Where is Robinson Cancel these days anyway?

Somehow, a chain of events unfolded that put Steve Phillips in a professional broadcast booth Sunday night so he could rip Carlos Beltran. Try to explain that in any other terms.

by Greenpoint Ian on May 29, 2009 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Mariners are down to 1 catcher

so it wouldn’t surprise me if they initiated the talks rather than NY. But in any event, it seems like it’s not about production with Castro. The brass just doesn’t like that guy.

"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin

by dcrockett17 on May 29, 2009 7:07 PM EDT reply actions  

They have Jeff Clement and Jamie Burke in AAA.

Burke was a backup catcher last year. The Mariners are being idiots with Clement.

The M’s should be selling, not buying.

by Aeoni on May 29, 2009 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm sorry, I just have to post again. We all KNEW it would happen

and in a month and a half, when Santos SUCKS (like he normally does), we’ll all have Jerry and Omar to thank. Honestly, puck you sirs.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 29, 2009 7:07 PM EDT reply actions  

Right, it's not like he's tearing it up.

His OBP is .300. That’s probably a little higher than you can expect from him (which is horrible). It’s his slugging percentage which is unsustainable, while you can expect Castro to maintain his current level of production.

by JohnPeterson on May 29, 2009 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

on another topic...

…where are we going to talk about tonight’s game? Here?

Somehow, a chain of events unfolded that put Steve Phillips in a professional broadcast booth Sunday night so he could rip Carlos Beltran. Try to explain that in any other terms.

by Greenpoint Ian on May 29, 2009 7:09 PM EDT reply actions  

That's what I was thinking

Though I’ve got a buncha stuff to do so I won’t likely be there much, I still like to have it just in case I need to vent, lol.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on May 29, 2009 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

let's just discuss here.

makeshift game thread!

Jerry Manuel...stop being....stupid...

by MetsGeek on May 29, 2009 7:12 PM EDT reply actions  

Time to use the foolproof decision-making method

Cerrone says the Mets should release Castro and keep Santos.

Therefore, the smart decision would be to keep Castro and release Santos.

Wasn’t that easy?

by T Pac on May 29, 2009 7:13 PM EDT reply actions  

+1

Well, actually just send Santos to AAA, but same dealio

Jerry Manuel...stop being....stupid...

by MetsGeek on May 29, 2009 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ronnie calls Santos "the #1 guy"

I hate life.

Somehow, a chain of events unfolded that put Steve Phillips in a professional broadcast booth Sunday night so he could rip Carlos Beltran. Try to explain that in any other terms.

by Greenpoint Ian on May 29, 2009 7:13 PM EDT reply actions  

Rec'd

For John’s analysis.

Mets front office should read this and also this from last week.

by James Kannengieser on May 29, 2009 7:24 PM EDT reply actions  

well these are the people

that signed a 45 year old + julio franco to a 2 year deal.

All of the mets fans hope that we will not see the bad news mets ever again.

by kendynamo on May 29, 2009 7:31 PM EDT reply actions  

to be fair

Castro is always always hurt. He may have hurt himself reading all these posts. Schneider sucks and has a weighty contract. No one wants to trade for him, or Santos, who is cheap. That’s all gotta figure into any reasonable analysis.

I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya

by itsmetsforme on May 29, 2009 8:08 PM EDT reply actions  

yeah he's always hurt

But the 300 PA he’ll give you are likely to be much more valuable, or at worst as valuable, as a year worth of Santos.

by Gina on May 29, 2009 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think people around here are over valuing HEAD

haha.

As I said, they want to trade someone, and Castro is really the only one who could conceivably draw interest.

I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya

by itsmetsforme on May 29, 2009 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

overvaluing what?

And the question is why do they want to trade someone? Why not just send the AAAA player back down to AAA. Are they being crippled by castro’s 2.5 million salary? It’s not like they’re going to get much for Castro he’s more valuable as a platoon catcher, if nothing else, then what we’re likely to get in a trade.

by Gina on May 29, 2009 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Castro is a backup

given the chance to play everyday in the past, he hasn’t been able to stay healthy. I can’t believe the hubbub about this.

I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya

by itsmetsforme on May 29, 2009 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

When has anyone said he should play everyday

Despite only getting to 300 or so plate appearances he’s always been a very useful bench player. Even if he can’t catch regularly he’s an excellent right handed bench bat on a team with a pretty shallow bench and a lack of overall depth.

by Gina on May 29, 2009 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Castro has several times since 2005

gotten the opportunity to be the #1 catcher due to injuries and such, when Piazza went down, etc. He has not always been a useful bench player, at least not when he’s hurt.

I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya

by itsmetsforme on May 29, 2009 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

...

I don’t understand why you’re talking about chances to be the #1 catcher once again when did I say that. And I don’t understand why the fact he can’t play a full season makes him less useful. I think 5-6 months of Castro on the bench is better than 0 months of castro on the bench and a much lesser playing trying to fill his role.

by Gina on May 29, 2009 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Also the issue isnt really so much trading castro himself

Its the whole idea of using a bad process. I mean ignore Castro and his faults completely for a second, Santos is a 27 year old rookie who never hit in the minors and wasn’t even good at throwing out base runners. Even with his hot start to begin the season he’s only hitting .268/.300/.437 as of right now, and on a downward trend. Yet for some reason they seem to love him, the only reason I can think of is a couple of “clutch” hits.

by Gina on May 29, 2009 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

they obviously know they need to do something for next season behind the plate

and see Santos as a capable placeholder, plus he has been valuable and he is cheap. They’re stuck with the bad decision that is Schneider already. Irrational hatred for Santos doesn’t really balance with rational evaluation of HEADs value.

I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya

by itsmetsforme on May 29, 2009 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why would they see Santos as having value

What has he done that would make anyone think he should be an everyday player on a team? How is it irrational when he hasn’t hit in the minors, he’s not hitting now, and his defense isn’t particularly impressive?

by Gina on May 29, 2009 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

its irrational to waste time getting all upset at this relatively minor issue

I think he has made several valuable contributions, but some are so exercised by the idea of “clutch” that it blinds them to how this is really not that important. Castro is ok, but always hurt and relatively expensive. Schneider is not going anywhere. Santos has performed adequately, and the front office probably likes his penchant for high profile contributions in his short time here.
Most likely no one wants to take Castro anyway.

I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya

by itsmetsforme on May 29, 2009 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Omir Santos might have a couple more "clutch" hits

but his overall minor league numbers are significantly lower than Castro’s major league numbers. The overall numbers will matter the most in the scope of a season.

And, a team with a payroll of the Mets’ caliber shouldn’t really be concerned with Castro’s salary, especially since Castro is off the books after the ’09 season. I mean, Oliver Perez anyone?

by Aeoni on May 29, 2009 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

why the quotation marks around clutch

you don’t think his homer in Boston or his hit last night were clutch? As Eric says – clutch hitters are a myth, but clutch hits are a very real thing.

by cjmulrain on May 30, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ok. He's not a clutch hitter.

And those “clutch hits” do not make him > Castro.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 30, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

I didn't say they did

but again, they weren’t “clutch hits,” they were CLUTCH HITS. They really were clutch. Doesn’t mean they make it likely that he’ll have more clutch hits in the future, but you can’t take away the clutchness of the past.

And for the record, I hate this trade. I like Santos and think he has a little more value than people are giving him credit for, and I think Castro is a little overrated, but Castro is still better than Santos, and it makes no sense if they’re not even saving salary.

by cjmulrain on May 30, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

I imagine if you were going to use clutch

Castro has as many clutch hits as Santos and he’s had several of those types of hits over the years. And it’s back to the fact that his valuable contributions haven’t been better than what Castro can contribute as a pinch hitter, if nothing else, on a team with basically no bench. He’s made valuable contributions, but overall there’s no reason for him to be a full time starter on any team, if that’s what you’re saying their plan might be for next year, especially one with the resources we have, and there’s no reason to think he’ll be more valuable than Castro has been the last few seasons.

by Gina on May 29, 2009 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

if you want to ignore castros injury proneness

and contract size, go ahead.

I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya

by itsmetsforme on May 29, 2009 8:36 PM EDT reply actions  

Where has anyone ignored his injury proneness?

The point is even with the injury proness he’s a better option for the role he fills the other options we have. And if the mets are really worried about a 2.5 million dollar contract then the Wilpons have some financial explaining to do.

by Gina on May 29, 2009 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

that's probably why they want to trade him

is why its important. of course they’re worried about $. They run a business. Don’t know where you’re coming from.

I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya

by itsmetsforme on May 29, 2009 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

...

They run a business where they make huge profits. Do you know how much the mets make, the second most valuable franchise by a pretty decent margin? You could already argue they invest less than they should back into the mets. I mean unless you’re saying you’d be okay with them slashing the payroll to like 60 million and just pocketing everything else.

by Gina on May 29, 2009 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well...

tonights efforts by Santos pretty much sealed his fate. He is the Mets catcher for the immediate future. Whether or not that is a good thing is a completely different matter.
But since Santos was the driving force behind the only two Mets runs tonight…that’s gotta count for something in everybody’s eyes…right?

by EMSfan9 on May 29, 2009 10:40 PM EDT reply actions  

Castro traded to White Sox

this sucks. he’s our best catcher, and when Schneider gets hurt and Omir is OBP’ing .250 at the end of July and Robinson Cancel is our everyday catcher we’ll all rue this day.

by twon8 on May 29, 2009 11:05 PM EDT reply actions  

People are saying

Castro has been traded to the White Sox for Lance Broadway.

by Aeoni on May 29, 2009 11:05 PM EDT reply actions  

You aren't

I don’t see why they would trade for another reliever, and a bad one at that. Otherwise, meh. I really liked Ramon, but he isn’t that much better than Santos.

Really, Jerry?

by Prince on May 29, 2009 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

to be fair

the Mets have more than one hole to shore up and if they can trade a league-average catcher for a league-average outfielder, that might not be so bad. Any word on who they might get?

by jadelane on May 29, 2009 11:06 PM EDT reply actions  

Jadelane

Check out baseball-reference and look at Ramon’s sOPS+. wOBA gives you Castro’s production relative to a generic player, regardless of position. Catcher is a premium position.
Castro’s sOPS+ for the past 5 seasons:

2009: 107
2008: 109 (BABIP: .260)
2007: 150 (BABIP: .300)
2006: 96 (BABIP: .321)
2005: 111 (BABIP: .295)

Looking at the BABIPs is important since the PAs are few in number. Look at 2007, when we were trotting out a below-average catcher for the vast majority of the time.

I will not allow the denigration of the life essence

by GenJackRipper on May 29, 2009 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

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