Ollie's Last Stand: Phillies 6, Mets 5

by Eric Simon on May 3, 2009 1:47 AM EDT

Oliver Perez stunk up the joint on Saturday, again, and it's not like any of us could reasonably have expected otherwise. Somewhere in the back of my mind I remained at least a tiny bit hopeful that he would take stock of his utter and complete craptacularness and begin to turn things around. I seem to remember him being generally good against the Phillies, so there was still a glint of optimism amid my tattered psyche. He didn't even have to pitch extraordinarily well to have an impact. I think at this point we'd be moderately satisfied with just a quality start (six innings, three runs) out of Perez. Keep the Mets in the game and eat up some innings.

None of that happened, of course, and the epic fail that was Omar Minaya's offseason rotation plan continues to crumble before our eyes. Oliver Perez was once a promising young strikeout machine, but now he has devolved into an expensive and utterly useless waste of space who is so demonstrably bad at everything he does it defies logic and exceeds the limits of my modest vocabulary. I would literally have to begin inventing new words to describe the scope of baseball misery he inflicts on all who watch him pitch.

I railed against Omar Minaya for signing Perez instead of Derek Lowe this past Winter, and nothing since the day that Lowe chose the Braves (and a few million dollars) over the Mets has convinced me that Minaya made the right choice. At this point, the burden of proof is so heavily with the Perez/Minaya defenders that it's not even a discussion worth having; the point has been all but conceded. The new question is whether the Mets would have been better off pursuing any of the other, supposedly lesser, starting pitchers who were available. Jon Garland has a tRA+ of 118 for the Diamondbacks this season. Randy Johnson has a tRA+ of 84, which is pretty bad but is actually quite impressive when compared with Perez's 41. You could even make a compelling case that Pedro Martinez, still a free agent, would have been a smarter choice. Hell, if the Mets can convince Perez of a demotion to Triple-A I could be convinced to sign Martinez right now to take his place.

That the Mets overcame Perez's lousy start to take the lead at one point (no small thanks to Ken Takahashi) doesn't even matter much in the grander scheme. The Mets had a number of chances to win this game, but losing somehow satisfies me more because a win might have made me hate Perez slightly less (as it is, Sean Green is vying for a spot on the "Dead To Me" wall of shame). Which provides a perfect segway to our new semi-regular feature:

Jerry Manuel's Retarded Move of the Day: After Ramon Castro led off the top of the eighth of a 5-5 game by drawing a walk, Manual called on his mancrush Omir Santos to pinch-run for the Hippo. Santos was eventually thrown out at home on Carlos Beltran's two-out single to right (Santos would also pop out to end the top of the ninth). An inning later, the game still tied at five, Manual inserted Jeremy Reed as a defensive replacement (?) for Daniel Murphy in left. Unless Manuel was simply unable to plan a full inning ahead, the smarter move would have been to pinch-run for Castro with Reed, and leave Reed (who probably could have scored on Beltran's single) in the game at that point. There wouldn't be much to second-guess here if Manuel had left Murphy in the game after his at-bat in the ninth; Santos pinch-running for Castro makes some sense after all. But Manuel didn't leave Murphy in, which makes the whole series of substitutions perplexing at best and mind-numbingly obtuse at worst.

Swag contest results can be found here and the next game's swag form already available. You can read more about the swag contest here.

SB Nation Coverage

* Boxscore
* Amazin' Avenue Gamethread
* The Good Phight Gamethread

Win Probability Added

Big winners: J.J. Putz, +25.3% WPA, Ryan Church, +18.3% WPA
Big losers: Carlos Beltran, -42.7% WPA, Oliver Perez, -35.9% WPA,
Teh aw3s0mest play: Church single in tenth, +18.3% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Victorino walkff walk in tenth, -33.9% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: -30.2% WPA
Total batter WPA: -19.8% WPA
GWRBI!: Shane Victorino

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by DevonEdwards; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.

Num	Name	# of Posts
1	DevonEdwards	312
2	future	135
3	squid92	129
4	wrightHOF	75
5	Greenpoint Ian	72
6	itsmetsforme	71
7	pingel	70
8	Prince	69
9	GenJackRipper	64
10	rob neyer for prez	56

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Comments

So

can you tell us how you really feel about Perez?

by Gina on May 3, 2009 2:12 AM EDT reply actions

+10000000000 For Jerry's retarted move of the day

It was an absolutely absurd series of substitutions. You described my feelings perfectly there, that was all I could fathom discussing after this game ended the way it did (mostly because thinking about Perez or Green made my me hurt).

Why was Beltran such a big WPA loser? Just because of the double play?

by Mark Himmelstein on May 3, 2009 2:12 AM EDT reply actions

Yes

by Sokojoe on May 3, 2009 2:23 AM EDT up reply actions

Is that re: Beltran?

I guess that would make sense. Worst possible outcome in one of the highest leverage situations possible.

by Mark Himmelstein on May 3, 2009 2:33 AM EDT up reply actions

In response to Beltran

Kind of highlights one of the flaws of WPA. But as with all stats, to see a players true worth, the more information the better.

by Sokojoe on May 3, 2009 2:47 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm assuming

he lost some WPA points on his single too, though, right? I mean, it wasn’t his fault Omir got thrown out at the plate, but it was the end result of his AB. I could be wrong about this, but I think that goes against Carlos and not Omir.

by cjmulrain on May 3, 2009 8:42 AM EDT up reply actions

afaik Yes

I think it only counts the change in game state: 1st and 2nd, 2 out → 3 outs, no runs in. So that single counts the same as a K or pop out.

by hotspur on May 3, 2009 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions

Unfortunately

Before FanGraphs started doing the auto-WPA graphs I used to chart them myself, which allowed for far more flexibility. For instance, I would not have debited Beltran for Santos being thrown out at home. I would have treated it as two distinct plays, crediting Beltran properly for moving Santos to third on the single and then debiting Santos for failing to go third-to-home.

by Eric Simon on May 3, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions

Pitcher WPA

it’s amazing that ollie had the worst pitcher WPA yesterday when green single-handedly lost the game in the bottom of the 10th. just goes to show how the gigantic suckitude that is oliver perez right now.

you know it’s a tough loss when you wake the next morning and are still thinking about game. hopefully maine brings his A game today.

by englishgrey on May 3, 2009 9:19 AM EDT reply actions

still thinking about it

That game sucked in like 5 different ways and I wasn’t surprised at any of them. And I won’t be surprised if they happen again today.

I liked the part where the Mets hit some home runs, though. Also the triple and the sac fly.

What does Hippo have to do to get his propers? Go to Jerry’s house and wash his car? Write him a poem with a glittery pen where the dots over the letter ‘i’ are little hearts?

by hotspur on May 3, 2009 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions

He has to lose some serious weight

I think both Willie and Jerry made that pretty clear

by deadspy3 on May 3, 2009 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions

Jerry is very much fascinated by a catcher who can run

and Omir is average. I would have liked to see Santos run Coste over. He’s a pretty big dude to get around with that hook slide.

"What position do you play?"
"I bat third."

by Preach19 on May 3, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions

WORST SUBSTITUTION's EVER

Can’t Jerry figure out how to manage a bench? This is getting ridiculous. I’m almost glad I can’t watch today since I’ll have to endure it in person tomorrow. Somebody do something!

by whynot on May 3, 2009 9:52 AM EDT reply actions

I'm on it.

'Oh yes, I know all about that duty-of-a-citizen stuff. It doesn't go. There are exceptions to every rule, and this was one of them. When a man risks his liberty to come and root at a ball-game, you've got to hand it to him. He isn't a crook. He's a fan.'

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on May 3, 2009 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions

Well, my game was rained out so I'm here to see what you've done.

I’m waiting.

by whynot on May 3, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions

that sucked like the wind

one word game summary: fakakta

when will the nats fire manny acta so we can fire jerry manuel and hire manny acta?

HELLO HELLO MR WILPON. WE WANT THE MANSION NOT THE CONDO.

by kendynamo on May 3, 2009 10:52 AM EDT reply actions

Seriously

That would make too much sense though, right? Maybe the two teams can just trade managers.

by Eric Simon on May 3, 2009 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions

There is no person in baseball I feel worse for than Manny Acta.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 3, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions

DevonEdwards

Your more-than-one-per-minute gamethread posts have affected my life negatively in the following ways….

I had actually prepared myself pretty well for losing, and the showing by Taki and Putz was positive. Was there any doubt the game was over when Green walked Chris Coste? As for the bench management, yea pretty pathetic work there.

by HotChipWillBreakYourLegs on May 3, 2009 11:13 AM EDT reply actions

it looks like a rainout today

Surely that is great news? Start Maine tomorrow, Johan on Wen and Perez’s turn get skipped. The break we were looking for no?

by Endys Game on May 3, 2009 11:18 AM EDT reply actions

I'm hoping fora Vietnam like monsoon season

that somehow allows Johan to start every game for the rest of the season.

by cjmulrain on May 3, 2009 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Retarded move of the day...

…not pitching your super-closer in the biggest inning? Not going out for Green? I’m gonna rest on that one. It isn’t the first time he’s “saved” his closer and lost because of it.

by BlackOps on May 3, 2009 2:17 PM EDT reply actions

The hardest of managing decisions

Tied extra inning game on the road: THE BOOK says to save your closer for a save situation; common sense says to save your bullpen ace for high-leverage situations. Well, they’re all high-leverage innings from here on out. So the manager’s decision is exceedingly difficult — which inning is he supposed to use his closer? I didn’t see the game, but I’m looking at the PBP.

Bottom 10, due up Rollins, Feliz, Bruntlett and if someone gets on Ruiz and the pitcher’s spot. Green should be able to get out of the inning. He gets Rollins out and Feliz reaches on an IF hit, then he hits tough lefty pinch hitter Matt Stairs, but he’s able to get another formidable lefty PH in Dobbs. He’s essentially induced three outs, but only gets credit for two because of batted ball luck. If I’m the manager, I’m willing to allow Green to get out of this jam. He’s pitched well, results aside and he should get Coste. I guess you can argue that he should go to K-Rod to pitch to Victorino, but I can’t blame him for not wanting to put a fresh pitcher in to that brutal of a spot.

by All Shook Down on May 3, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Well put

Very correct sir, couldn’t agree more. If there was a spot for K-Rod, it was Victorino, but even that I can forgive. I don’t think K-Rod should have started that inning against the 5,6,7 hitters, and leaving Green in to face Victorino is forgivable, considering once you blow K-Rod, you’re asking Stokes to pitch the rest of the game however deep it goes.

by Mark Himmelstein on May 3, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions

i can see what you're saying

but with the mets playing in a bandbox of a stadium, i’d rather jerry assume the game is not going to go 14+ innings and bring in k-rod for the 10th and 11th or bring in stokes to pitch until the mets take the lead or lose the game.

by englishgrey on May 3, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Tak?

I totally missed this game. I saw that Tak threw strikes and held the Phillies at bay. Does anyone here think that he has a chance to make a start? None of the projection systems made a projection for him.

Oh and Eric is usually brilliant, but it is segue, not ‘segway’ the motor scooter.

by All Shook Down on May 3, 2009 2:19 PM EDT reply actions

I actually like him in the pen

He was a reliever in Japan last year if I remember correctly. He might be spot-startable, but I doubt he’s a long term solution. He’s got a deceptive delivery like a lot of the Japanese imports, and he had a nice breaking ball. His fastball was okay, 88-89, nothing special.

I’d like to see Niese get another try. I know his ERA’s been ugly, but his peripheral numbers haven’t been bad at all. Seems like he’s a victim of bad defense and bad luck in Buffalo as much as anything. With the rainout, you can probably skip Perez’s spot in the rotation next trip through, but I don’t think Niese’s lefty curve would be a bad matchup against the Phils at Citi if it comes to it.

by Mark Himmelstein on May 3, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions