Some Possible Trade Targets Pt. 2
To catch up on part one, read this. Basically, the Mets have Reyes-Wright-Sheffield-Cora/Castillo-Beltran going forward, with uncertainty in right field and first base. I played with the idea of trading for Nick Johnson, and think the Mets should if they can avoid trading Niese, Holt, and Parnell. If Parnell would be the centerpiece of such a trade, I would be tempted to do it. Middle relievers are inherently less valuable than starters and Parnell wildness and inability to get swinging strikes are a little troublesome. Still, 20% strikeout rate is fantastic and only Frank can boast a mark better than Parnell's 3.07 tRA. With Putz still not looking like his old self, the Mets can't afford to give up their second best reliever. One remedy would be picking up Joel Hanrahan, if the Nats have given up on him, but I doubt they'd make a trade that circular. Stranger things Stupider trades have happened.
Per request, Russel Branyan should be another firstbaseman considered. He's been the entire offense for the Mariners, who have slowly dropped out of contention. Zduriencik signed Branyan on a low-risk/high-reward sort of deal and is in a great position to cash in. Branyan, a notorious 3-true-outcome hitter, with a career .236 batting average is hitting .311, thanks to an unsustainably high .386 BABIP. The crash back to Earth you might be expecting, however, may never come. Jeff at Lookout Landing does a good job explaining the observable improvements Branyan's made since playing in Milwaukee's farm system. The conclusion: expect him to regress down to a .260 average, not .230. That adjustment makes his ZiPS rest-of-season projection of a .372 wOBA (.852 OPS) seem pretty reasonable. For all you Aubrey Huff people out there, Russ is your man. He's cheaper, a better hitter, and more athletic, with outfield experience. The total zone data from the minors and the UZR data from the majors on Branyan are both insufficient to make any conclusions, but he has played the OF and probably wouldn't be any worse than Sheffield or Huff out there. The only caution flag on a potential Branyan-deal is Zduriencik. He's a heck of a talent evaluator, and if the Putz deal didn't convince you of that, look at the Brewers draft history. Jack Z's also in a good bargaining position, with no real urgency to sell. If Minaya can find a decent compromise of talent for the rental, Branyan would be a good pickup. In terms of wins, I'd estimate somewhere around +1, assuming the Mets don't use him during a strikeout heavy cold streak.
Another distinct route the Mets could go is for an outfielder. Sheffield has earned his spot, but he's old and rightfield is a huge question mark. Fernando Martinez, if given regular playing time in the coming week, could pull an Omir Santos and play his way into a permanent position. That seems unlikely, however, and I doubt the organization views him as more of a placeholder. There's also Ryan Church to consider, who could be back in a week or two, assuming he recovers quickly. As hard as he's been to watch this year, he's no this bad, and 2.9 % HR/FB suggests he due for a few homers. The possibility of Church's return, though highlights the real problem with the Mets corner-outfield depth the past couple of years. The backups were not great, but neither were the starters. It wouldn't hurt to add a player that provides a better back-up plan than Angel Pagan, but if the Mets are going to deal serious talent, they need to get a significant offensive upgrade.
First, three possible depth additions that have been mentioned include Mark DeRosa and Frank Francisco of the Indians and Eric Hinske of the Pirates. DeRosa's name pops up all the time and with good reason: the Mets seemingly have injuries at every position and DeRosa can seemingly play every position. In the outfield, UZR pegs him as a ridiculous +20 runs. He has experience at every infield position, but is not particularly good at any of them. As a hitter, DeRosa projects to be ~.350 wOBA, which is about as good as one would expect from Ryan Church. He could play first while Delgado is out, and move to play whatever else when Delgado gets back. If Church and Delgado are healthy and producing, DeRosa would provide a nice righty bat to balance the line-up and could rest Castillo and Sheffield. He'd probably even start over Castillo eventually. Mark DeRosa is not a player who could hit so well he'd take over right field, although his defense could make him just as valuable. He could probably help in a variety of ways down the stretch, but I worry Minaya would pay too much for the name.
Ben Francisco is pretty unspectacular, both as a fielder and a hitter. He may have some upside, but not the kind that would make him better than Ryan Church. Having him and Pagan would be redundant. Eric Hinske, on the other hand, is a player who was once better than Pagan, but looks on the decline. He has an unspectacular .730 OPS, but actually has gotten lucky, having hit all of 4 line drives all season.
Matt Holliday would be the one player who keeps Ryan Church on the bench. His struggles with the A's have been blown out of proportion by the I-told-you-so crowd and he's been picking up the pace in recent weeks. His ZiPS rest-of-season projection calls for a .371 wOBA (.839 OPS), which is good, but not the Matt Holliday of old. Still, assuming he just puts up a ~.850 OPS in the next 400 PA, he'd be a 1.5 win improvement over Church and probably a 2 win improvement over Church+cool guys who should be in the minors. The upside on that projection is huge, obviously, if he keeps up his recent pace. The price on Holliday, however, would be huge, especially compared to Nick Johnson, who I projected to have a similar contribution. I know many of you hate the idea of Minaya trading with Beane, but I think the Harden trade last year, proved he was human. Beane's good but overrated, and I think that chapter in Moneyball about him talking to Omar was full of exaggeration. Yes, it would take a lot, but the Mets should consider, given how weak the division looks this year.
Two other "big names" are Brad Hawpe and Jermaine Dye, but no thanks. Both players negate much of their offensive value in the field, which says a lot about Hawpe's defense, considering what a great hitter he is (cough cough, -77 UZR). That may sound hypocritical considering I advocate giving Sheffield a full-time job, but both of those players would command actual prospects in a trade, Sheff was free. I also think Sheffield is better than Dye.
One last name I'll throw out there, who doesn't get talked about enough, is Austin Kearns. He's got great on-base skills, despite the bad average, and could probably post a wOBA in line with his career .344 mark. Coupled with great outfield defense, and Kearns could be more valuable for the Mets than any player listed here, not named Holliday. The Nats view him as a bad contract, and the Minaya could pick him up for literally nothing. Omar could also feign like he didn't want Kearns, but would take him on to help a Nick Johnson trade happen. That's the trade I want to see.
Request any OFers I missed, SP/IF is next.
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38 comments
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Comments
I would have never said this a few weeks ago because I would never have thought it possible.
But Jake Peavy!
The WS package that was accepted by SD was terrible and the Mets can put together a better package than that.
Hes said he doesnt want to go East but if the Mets were to guarantee his $22 mil option it might change his mind because hed still be in a pitchers park whilst having better run support.
A package of Martinez, Niese, Parnell and a few other prospects…maybe even Pelfrey???
OR
Rather than overpaying for a one year Johnson OR Branyan rental, why not try to put a package for someone who can play 1B for a long time.
Maybe Garret Atkins?
Matt Holliday is a nice idea (Providing he can be signed long term)but I think he would cost more than the Mets can offer Beane isnt going to take a bad offer on him and despite his slow start Holliday is heating up and should be firing on all cylinders by the trade deadline. I’d simply wait til the offseason for Holliday.
by Ohpityme on May 30, 2009 8:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Why would you want to trade Martinez, Niese, and Parnell?
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on May 30, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
they don't even need parnell that much
they have mujica, gregersen and bell, and adams coming back. Maybe you could get him for Niese and another minor league pitcher, akin to Richards Poreda. Martinez and Pelfrey are way too much. But I wouldn’t wanna toss in Jhenry or Holt, and I doubt Niese Gee or Niese Niesen (sic?) gets it done.
by wobatus on May 30, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Atkins is kind of awful
But I agree I’d rather not trade for another short-term fix to a position we have major long-term question marks at. The problem is we likely can’t afford anyone who would be a long-term answer… which is why I wish they would have gone after Tex in the off-season but w/e.
by Gina on May 30, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well we saved all that money moving Castro so I guess it wouldn't be too hard to take on Kearns
…wait n/m.
- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement
by riversmccown on May 30, 2009 9:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
kearns has been hurt
I like him, but he hasn’t been all that good for a couple of years now. He was ok in 2007. He has a bruised hand. Of course, that should heal up.
I actually like Willingham. His babip was absurdly low and now just kinda low after a hot streak. Zips update wOBA .367 to Kearns .336.
by wobatus on May 30, 2009 9:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
actually
Kearns’s wOBA in ‘09 about the same as ’07. Just a low babip and batting average. Still, Willingham, offensively at least, is better. But he isn’t a rightfielder.
by wobatus on May 30, 2009 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
willingham
slugging .550 after 2 homers today.
by wobatus on May 31, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like Kearns
He’s a league-average hitter and a fine defender. Similar to Ryan Church. (And that is meant as a compliment.)
by Zwill on May 30, 2009 9:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
And having 2 average players in right
Would be better than having 1 average and a bunch of mediocre players.
I would take Kearns
by metsman07 on May 30, 2009 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Travis Buck
been pretty bad and injury prone last couple of years, but was good in 2007 carer wOBA .342 in line with Kearn’s career. Plays rf. A’s have Cunningham in AAA. He’s 25, Kearns 29, and really hasn’t had many at bats last couple of years.
Yeah, Omar negotiating with Beane may not be optimal.
buck is kinda like murph if he kept regressing, could play rf a little and got injured all the time. next.
by wobatus on May 30, 2009 11:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Kearns, when healthy, produces 3.5 - 4 wins.
Dude’s been injured, has hit into bad luck and losing a playing time war in which there are like eight or nine participants. Kearns would be a good pick-up, though I’m sure the Mets could get him for absolutely nothing if they waited until the Nats inevitably release him later in the season.
by All Shook Down on May 30, 2009 11:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
There's a playing time war here too . . .
I mean, it’s not a legitimate one, but Manuel has devised one.
Do you think Kearns would automatically get more playing time than Pagan? He might play as much as Reed does, or look at where Church is right now.
by theflicker on May 30, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Please clarify
Why you’re so certain that Russell Branyan, who has more major league data and thus is a better known, is NOT overachieving this year, while Omir Santos, who is a relative unknown, is certain to regress. Seems to me I should bet on Branyan either falling apart late or getting a 50-gamer.
by WWORDuke on May 30, 2009 3:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Because, again, if you had looked at the stats
Branyan’s K rate has reduced, and he’s getting better contact. Meanwhile, Santos is swinging at like over 30% of the pitches thrown outside the zone to him, and his OBP is god awful. That’s exactly why Branyan is overachieving less than Santos is.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on May 30, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did you read Jeff's article?
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on May 30, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he's probably overperforming
But his floor probably isn’t as a low as Santos. He’s overperforming by hitting like an all-star. Santos is overperforming by hitting like players thats barely league average for his position.
by Gina on May 30, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For what its worth Branyans career, in the major leagues line is
.236/.333/.493 (.826 ops) with a wOBA of .351, which is probably at best what we could expect from a combination of Tatis/Murphy/Reed/??? So even if this is a fluke and he’s only as good as his career numbers his career numbers are still better than what we have.
by Gina on May 30, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In fact for comparison right now we're getting
.260/.331/.405 from Murphy and .262/.326/.405 from Tatis. So even if Branyan reverted to his career numbers he would still be way like .100 ops points better than what we have.
by Gina on May 30, 2009 4:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hermida
I meant to mention Hermida even before today. Zips update wopa of .350, only 25 I think. Can play right if not spectacular. I have heard Marlins may be getting tired of waiting for a breakout.
by wobatus on May 30, 2009 6:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ollie Perez
I read on Metsblog that Ollie Perez has been diagnosed with, eh-hem cough-cough, “patella tendonitis” after experiencing discomfort after his last rehab start. He was flown up to New York where he allegedly had an MRI which allegedly disclosed the condition. He allegedly flew back to Florida where he will continue his “rehab.”
Well, if my skepticism didn’t smack you in the face … This is all just “cover” for Ollie’s failed mechanics and him being out of shape and out of sync. I just find it funny how the Mets organization is going out of its way to mask this as some kind of injury.
"Never throw a slider to The Glider."
- Ed Charles, No. 5
by The Glider on May 30, 2009 7:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Patella tendonitis is a catchall right?
Maybe he does have some issues in his knee?
Either that or they are just completely covering the fack that he is totally incompetant…like you said.
I would be fine with not seeing him again all year
by metsman07 on May 30, 2009 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If we could upgrade from Church (or if he could get back to his early 2008 form) that right there is a runaway freight train from hell.
Assuming we can pry Holliday from Billy Beane’s cold, lifeless hands and Delgado can get back…
Reyes SS
Castillo 2B
Beltran CF
Wright 3B
Delgado 1B
Holliday RF
Sheffield LF
Santos C
That’s a freaking line-up
Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.
by AnthonyR on May 30, 2009 11:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Meh I'm not sure about Holliday
And I definitely don’t want Omar negotiating with Billy Beane. Holliday’s power numbers have basically evaporated in Oakland, and even if it’s because of the stadium citifield isn’t going to be any better for him.
by Gina on May 31, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not either, but I make the call to see what Moneyball wants for him.
Churchie hasn’t looked good this year and I think we’ve got to do something…
Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.
by AnthonyR on May 31, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Santos is a like a small piece of shit in the middle of your brand new car.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on May 30, 2009 11:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
oops, sorry, meant to be a reply to Anthony R.
that looks kinda odd to say the least out of context, haha. And it wasn’t meant to be malicious. Just…which of these is not like the other??? Hmmmmm…
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on May 30, 2009 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Man, you're everywhere.
You just don’t like this dude, huh?
Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.
by AnthonyR on May 30, 2009 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not that I don't like him.
But take a look at that lineup. It’s great…until you get to Santos. But I’m mostly being facetious. As a #8 hitter, he isn’t too bad.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on May 31, 2009 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Believe me
I like Omir Santos more than most, and I agree. But, he’s a catcher. He’s certainly shooting better than par for the course so far no matter how many people want to point out his OBP. He’s a backup catcher. If he took walks, he’d be a starting catcher. He’s got the tools to be a decent backup and if HoJo can get him to improve his plate discipline, we may have something.
Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.
by AnthonyR on May 31, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you think they'll use him exclusively as a back-up?
Because I imagine he’s going to be getting a lot of playing time.
by Gina on May 31, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seeing as Brian Schneider can't hit his way out of a paper bag, probably not.
I think if he is a better option than Schneider, he will. 3 GWRBI in 7 days aint bad. I’d ride the wave while I still can.
Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.
by AnthonyR on May 31, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's 28 years old.
He’s not going to figure out how to draw walks now. And his 34.6% O-swing rate says he isn’t learning it. Face it, guy’s a hacker.
by BobbyV_Incognito on May 31, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, and his contact rate on pitches out of the zone is ridiculous as well
He’s a hacker, but he’s getting the job done better than any catcher we’ve had since Castro in 2007. I haven’t seen Brian Schneider getting big hits since he’s been here…
Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.
by AnthonyR on May 31, 2009 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, that O-contact rate is ridiculous.
It’s at Vlad Guerrero levels. Maybe he can continue while swinging like a blind lumberjack, but color me skeptical. Like I said at Friday’s game, this kind of hitting isn’t sustainable, but I’ll take it while it’s happening.
by BobbyV_Incognito on May 31, 2009 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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