Guess The UZR: Mets Outfield

by James Kannengieser on May 5, 2009 9:00 AM EDT in Stats Comment 13 comments

The defense statistic Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) aims to measure how many runs above or below average a player saves in the field. Factors like range, errors, throwing arm (for outfielders), and double plays (for infielders) are evaluated. For this stat, positive = good; negative = bad. Five Mets have played atleast 20 innings in the outfield this season:

Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Daniel Murphy
Jeremy Reed
Gary Sheffield

Can you match them up with their UZR?

Player	UZR
A	1.0
B	0.5
C	-1.5
D	-1.5
E	-3.8

Answers after the jump.

Player	UZR
Jeremy Reed	1.0
Daniel Murphy	0.5
Gary Sheffield	-1.5
Carlos Beltran	-1.5
Ryan Church	-3.8

A little surprising? Yes, but there are plenty of caveats. The season is still young, despite being about 1/7 completed. Reed has only played in 20.2 innings. And most importantly, this does not mean that Gary Sheffield is a better fielder than Ryan Church. It's worth mentioning that Mets outfield defense has been 27th in all of baseball so far this season per UZR, after finishing 3rd in 2008 (with some help from Endy Chavez).

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Comments

I don't fully trust UZR

and having Carlos Beltran tied with Gary Sheffield and behind Daniel Murphy isn’t helping to bring me around to it.

by cjmulrain on May 5, 2009 9:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Keep in mind

it measures defensive runs against average. So Beltran is evaluated against other CF’s, the others against corner OF’s. CF’s are better fielders than corner OF’s. So it’s not as clear cut as Murphy > Beltran. Plus it’s a long term stat – when the season ends I bet we’ll see a different story.

by James Kannengieser on May 5, 2009 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm...this is why I've never found a fielding stat I really like yet.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on May 5, 2009 10:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I suggest...

This stat only be looked at for full seasons. 20 innings doesn’t tell us anything really.

"It's Father's Day today at Shea, so to all you fathers out there, Happy Birthday." -- Ralph Kiner

by dissento on May 5, 2009 11:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Could Citi Field

being larger account for any of this? Balls that used to be HR’s are now in play and not turned into outs by our OF’ers.

by whynot on May 5, 2009 11:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Here's my problem with UZR

The ErrR portion of UZR is calculated based on “official” errors, right? The problem is that while Murphy obviously committed at least 4-5 errors, his official number is only 2. Then the whole stat is pretty much useless.

by alexSVK on May 5, 2009 12:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That would be a problem.

"The people of Houston are spending money like oil's selling at $40 a barrel."

by IanB in MD on May 5, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I actually don't think it is

by Gina on May 5, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure how that stat is calculated

but for those plays that weren’t ruled errors, he still didn’t make the out for the play. So a ball was hit to an x-y location, but he did make the out. So the resulting game state change would be a hit and runners advanced. Wouldn’t he get tagged on the ‘range’ portion of the statistic then?

I’m asking. Let me know if im way off here.

by rob neyer for prez on May 5, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that was worded poorly

What I meant to say was, he didn’t make the out on a play within his zone. So this would negatively impact his range?

by rob neyer for prez on May 5, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can't say for sure but based on what fangraphs has explaining uzr

I believe that’s right.

RngR (range runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity.

by Gina on May 5, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also like JamesK said

a 5 at first base isn’t the same as 5 at short stop, and what not. It’s verse the average at their position. I’m not sure how it deals with field adjustments though, also, from what I understand about UZR, it’s just balls in a players zone, so if Beltran is having to compensate for Castillo/Murphy or something then those aren’t being counted towards him.

What’s funny is even with beltways -1.5 he’s like 10 5-7 in the NL in WAR.

by Gina on May 5, 2009 1:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs