NL East Starting Pitching Thus Far

by James Kannengieser on May 7, 2009 8:00 AM EDT in Stats Comment 11 comments

The Mets starting rotation, besides Johan Santana, had an awful first month of the season. This fact has been covered extensively, here, here, and here. However, in the last week, Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, and Livan Hernandez have each made encouraging starts. How does the Mets pitching staff stack up against the rest of the NL East? Here are the NL East rotations ranked by pitching runs above average (pRAA, via Statcorner) and a few words on each:

Team	pRAA
Braves	10.8
Marlins	-2.3
Mets	-3.5
Nationals	-18.1
Phillies	-27.3

Braves - Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, and Jo-Jo Reyes have been terrific so far. Lowe's groundball % (GB%) is slightly lower than usual, but his strikeouts are up and his line-drive % (LD%) is predictably spectacular. Vazquez's only major blemish was his meeting with Carlos Beltran and David Wright this past Monday. Reyes's 3.68 FIP is probably unsustainable, and his fastball is down two mph since 2007. Jair Jurrjens has been solid as well, although his 1.89 ERA is misleading when considering defense independent pitching stats.

Marlins - Josh Johnson has been simply dominant. Using his 95 mph fastball, he's striking guys out, not walking many, and inducing groundballs at a strong rate. Ricky Nolasco sports a decent FIP (4.06) but his extremely poor LD% (28%) is the reason for his 7.03 ERA. Chris Volstad has a 2.97 ERA, which is masked by a low .221 BABIP.

Nationals - The poor Nats don't feature one above average starter. The silver lining is that all of their starters are young. Jordan Zimmermann has the stuff to be a very good pitcher and is just 22 years old. John Lannan posted a respectable 3.91 ERA last year, but his peripherals weren't great and they're worse in this young season. I was surprised to see that Scott Olsen is just 25 years old - I feel like he's been around for a decade. His fastball velocity has seriously declined since making his debut in 2005. Daniel Cabrera's days of being a useful major league pitcher are behind him, but fellow staff member Shairon Martis is 22 years old and threw a no-hitter in the 2006 World Baseball Classic.

Phillies - It's pretty miraculous that the Phillies have a winning record despite getting such a putrid performance from their rotation. Cole Hamels is battling various injury woes and might be feeling the effects of pitching 262.1 innings last season. Brett Myers's HR/9 is a ridiculous 2.43. Joe Blanton, Jamie Moyer, and Chan Ho Park have been all around sucky, save Park's inexplicable domination last night. The bad news, for Met fans, is that the Phils rotation has nowhere to go but up.

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Philles Arms Will Get Better

But, thankfully, so will the Mets. The trick will be mixing good to decent starts and batters with grission.

But seriously, that Phils number is amazing. I would not have thought that they would measure so much worse than the Mets and Nats starters. God help us when their pRAA is -10!!!

"The people of Houston are spending money like oil's selling at $40 a barrel."

by IanB in MD on May 7, 2009 8:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Factoring grission

the Phillies have the best rotation in baseball.

by James Kannengieser on May 7, 2009 8:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Okay, I'll bite

The trick will be mixing good to decent starts and batters with grission.

Grission = Grit + Passion?

"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin

by dcrockett17 on May 7, 2009 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

Eric’s creation from the recap of Livan’s last start.

'Oh yes, I know all about that duty-of-a-citizen stuff. It doesn't go. There are exceptions to every rule, and this was one of them. When a man risks his liberty to come and root at a ball-game, you've got to hand it to him. He isn't a crook. He's a fan.'

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on May 7, 2009 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Grission always wins the day

Every week it seems like some stat-head burps out another stat like PRxBA (Pitcher as Runner exasperation Ball Average – which measures the ball/strike ratio of a pitcher in the half-inning following a time on base.) But maybe once a year we learn about a REAL stat that makes a difference in games – like Grission. It sums up what is needed in an every-day player to rip victory from the jaws of defeat.

"The people of Houston are spending money like oil's selling at $40 a barrel."

by IanB in MD on May 7, 2009 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I actually like PRxBA

Can I subscribe to your newsletter?

by HotChipWillBreakYourLegs on May 7, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That sounds fascinating...

PRxBA, I mean.

by JohnPeterson on May 7, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know. They talk about it all the time

Since I was a kid, broadcasters make a comment about how a pitcher can have a tough time after spending an inning on the basepaths. Never heard about the actual stat, but I assumed because it was mentioned on tv and radio, that it must be true.

"The people of Houston are spending money like oil's selling at $40 a barrel."

by IanB in MD on May 7, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ahhh....

Bach.

"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin

by dcrockett17 on May 7, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Nowhere to go but up"

remember when people kept saying that about the Mets bullpen last year? Obviously I doubt the Phillies will be THAT bad all year, but if Hamels gets hurt for any significant period of time, their rotation will be truly putrid, enough to make ours look like the ’71 Orioles

"This is the beauty of baseball. In basketball, at the end of the game, you want to put the ball in your best scorer's hands. But in baseball, it's up to a rookie like McGlinchy and a journeyman like Franco with the entire season on the line. Baseball history is dotted with names like Al Weis and Brian Doyle, men who have taken their name out of the agate type and placed it into the headlines, because it was simply their time."

by cjmulrain on May 7, 2009 10:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs