Johan 2.0
[Note by Sam, 05/09/09 11:53 AM CDT ] Edited to not suggest he just learned to throw a two-seam fastball yesterday.
Unbeknownst to most Mets fans, Johan Santana has experienced a statistical decline of sorts over the past three years. After insane tRA's of 2.38 and 2.33 in 2005 and 2006 respectively, the mark rose to 3.07, 3.66, and finally to 3.75 in his first season with the Mets. While those numbers still mean he's at a great 5 Wins Above Replacement, Johan looked more like a top-10 starting pitcher than the Barry Bonds of the mound.
Those three years of seeming decline, however, didn't follow an exact pattern. In 2007, he pitched more to contact, as his LD% rose from 13.7% to 18.8%, despite missing roughly the same number of bats. The next year his LD% dropped to 16.2%, but Johan allowed a career high 33 homeruns. Then, in his first year with the Mets, his homers dropped back to his career average, but his LD% rose and his K/9 dropped. The strikeout rate was the most troubling symptom, as he should have struckout more, switching to the weaker National League. While great pitchers like Johan can effectively pitch to contact, 2008 marked the first season where a precipitous decline in stuff was evident.
Johan Santana, however, a notoriously slow starter, is off to a vintage Johan start. His ERA equals his WHIP, which screams unsustainable, but the results have been fairly real. His K/9 is a ridiculous 12.25, and besides opening day, his control has been equally phenomenal. As Eric noted after the Phillies game, Johan's batted ball profile has been pretty bizarre, with 23.3% LD, 29.1% GB, and 22.1% FB only equaling 75%. The rest have been infield flies, which are as close to an automatic out as you can get.
Johan's 20% IF seems pretty unsustainable for a guy with 13.5% career mark. Unlike his 90.4% Left On Base percentage, however, we don't know what will happen in lieu of more IFFB. Those additional 10% of runners will just come home and be runs, but which of LD, GB, or FB will rise as his IFFB rate declines? Check the pitchf/x on these infield flies:
This graph really only raises more questions than it answers, namely: Why is pitchf/x suddenly distinguishing between two different fastballs? These pitchf/x cameras misidentify some pitches, but turns out he's actually throwing something more often enough that, the pitchf/x cameras at least, think is a two-seam fastball:
| Season | FA% | CH% | SL% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 62.0 % | 31.7 % | 5.9 % | 0.0 % |
| 2009 | 59.3 % | 23.3 % | 6.2 % | 9.5 % |
Throwing a "new" pitch 10% of the time is no small adjustment, and is probably a big reason he's getting so many strikeouts and more weak contact (infield flyballs). Whether he's actually started throwing a two-seam fastball, I don't know and it honestly doesn't matter, because the break of his new pitch is pretty distinct from the regular ol' heater.
Horizontal Movement
| Season | FB | CH | SL | FT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 1.0 | - |
| 2009 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 8.8 |
Vertical Movement
| Season | FB | CH | SL | FT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 2009 | 11.4 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 7.9 |
The average velocity of the pitch is 86.1 MPH, right between his 91.4 fastball and 80.8 changeup. In fact, it's the exact average of the fastball and changeups velocity. And as you can see from the movement tables, it's very similar to the changeup, with just a little more down and out movement. Check out the graphical form from his start against the Marlins:
Santana has seemingly just added a third-component to his already devastating fastball-changeup combination. It seems he always threw the two seamer, but this incarnation is much more distinct and breaks much more like his changeup. This two-seamer just looks like a changeup coming in on the batter but is slightly faster. No wonder he's got hitters so badly fooled; he's throwing what essentially looks like the same pitch out of his hand with three distinct speeds and pinpoint accuracy.
These are the results on the two-seamer pitch so far this season:
- 8 Groundballs (2 singles)
- 3 Flyballs (1 hit [Gary Sheffield])
- 3 Popouts
- 4 Linedrives (2 hits)
- 32 Strikes (9 swinging, 17 called, 6 foul)
- 14 Balls
This adjustment is incredible for a pitcher of his age and status, and his purported decline may be over. With Santana's control, and his renewed knack for swinging strikes and weak contact, he could post 9+ WAR seasons of vintage Minnesota Johan. Couple those factors with the homerun suppression from playing his home games in the batcave and his ability to get better in the second half, and a Cy Young seems within striking distance.
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Comments
But does he have an edge?
Nice work. But don’t you think it could be something else…like Johan being in the best shape of his life? Just a thought.
This winter, while the Yanks were signing all the big name pitchers, I didn’t worry too much because the Mets had Johan. But I did not expect he would be off to such a good start. Me happy.
I love the idea that Santana might have a new pitch. It is even more awesome that no one on the Mets made a stink about it, all bragging during Spring Training about how Johan had “another weapon” or some such shit.
Grission and Husart - that is either the non-union Mexican equivelant of "Starsky and Hutch" or the key to winning the World Series.
by IanB in MD on May 9, 2009 10:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Great catch
Now we have to get someone in the mainstream media to ask him straight out whether he has indeed added a new pitch or has found a way to change up his change up consistently.
by djbutler73 on May 9, 2009 10:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't want to know.
Then other teams can gameplan for it.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on May 9, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
meh they'll find out eventually
That’s what they hire advanced scouts.
by meigs1414 on May 9, 2009 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think the secret is out now
maybe AA should be password-protected
by englishgrey on May 9, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
IFFB%
This number, 37.5% per FanGraphs, is actually Infield Flies Per Fly Ball. StatCorner’s IF% is truly Infield Fly , so their rate of 20.9 for Santana is probably accurate.
Using FanGraphs data:
FB%: 54.5
IFFB%: 37.5
So 54.5 * .375 = 20.4%, which is pretty close to what SC has.
None of this changes the analysis much, it just brings his IF% down to earth a bit (but still much higher than anything Santana has done in his career).
by Eric Simon on May 9, 2009 11:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Johan has always had a 2-seamer and thrown it often
I’m honestly confused by the idea presented here that it’s a new pitch
by The Great Dep on May 9, 2009 12:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
OK I figured it out
the pitch was just really hard to distinguish before: http://www.metsgeek.com/articles/2008/10/16/johan-santana-season-analysis/
He’s just changed it for the better
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on May 9, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Basically what I got from this article
Is that Johan Santana cheats.
by Gina on May 9, 2009 12:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Interesting
I’ll try to ask Santana about this next time I get a chance, sometime when he hasn’t pitched that day (he definitely wouldn’t say much in the postgame press conference, plus asking about pitchFX data in that setting is a great way to expose yourself as some sort of rogue Internet writer who has no business being around professionals). I’m not out there today, but I might be Tuesday. If the trend continues Monday, I’ll see if I can find something out.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but what I’m to gather from this is that he’s taking something off his two-seamer this year (to the tune of about five mph) and getting more horizontal movement on it?
Regardless, I have a feeling he’ll be kinda tight-lipped.
by TedBerg on May 9, 2009 1:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yea just that he's taken something off it, really
I don’t suppose you would ask him about the horizontal movement. Thanks that’d be fantastic.
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on May 9, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great article.
I was curious. Does the data show Johan being able to dial up the fastball a bit more? I was watching the game the other day and he hit 95 MPH, which I do not remember him hitting at all last year. This may just be a product of me being in awe of Johan, but his fastball seems like it has a little more “life” than it did last year. It’s just exploding on hitters.
by SQUAD on May 9, 2009 3:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
A little bit
His average fastball this year is pretty similar still to his average fastball last year, but his velocity chart from last year shows a whole lot of inconsistency at the beginning of the season. So he’s started off throwing harder than he started off throwing last year, for sure, and in his recent starts his average has been up from last year, but he did have starts last year where he was throwing as hard as he has been.
by TedBerg on May 9, 2009 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
pitch/fx
Pitch f/x has only started to identify (or at least attempt to identify) two-seamers this season. Johan isn’t doing anything new, pitch f/x is.
by T Pac on May 10, 2009 6:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That's definitely not true
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=1692&position=P#vertical
Even if it was, it wouldn’t matter since the article I referenced from last year manually differentiated between the two.
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on May 10, 2009 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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