The Award-Winning Amazin' Avenue

by robcast23 on Jun 1, 2009 3:55 PM EDT Comment 25 comments

So I've realized we have it pretty good here. And not just because AA was recently ranked the 14th best MLB blog out there on the Sports Blog Index.

Specifically, I posted that Consistency Factor stuff on all of the NL blog sites (as well as Beyond the Boxscore). And after a few weeks of keeping tabs and gauging responses I've realized that we've got quite the little baseball blog going. Because while responses to the pretty forward-thinking material were generally pretty positive, most blogs just gave a couple "nice jobs" and that was about it. In fact, I received quite a few "why is this post so long" as well as a few "too many #'s/graphs" responses. Basically, most blog communities just didn't care.

A comment from Bucs Dugout:

"When you sit down to prepare something like this, do you ever take into account that the game of baseball is played by human beings? Sometimes you numbers-crunchers get too much into your FOOLproof ANALysis... I see the game differently from the graphs/charts with a million and one abbreviations that often read to me in the end: BFD."

comment from Talking Chop:

"More power to you guys who get into this kind of thing but I just can’t stomach it."

"Same here"

I've since realized that this is how most of these blogs operate. With a few exceptions, there is very little reader-generated statistical analysis. Maybe I'm wrong but to me that seems like it would just be an avalanche of "This is my opinion about the team without any substantiation" which would get really boring really fast. Basically thats the difference between us and sports radio. Even worse, many readers just couldn't believe that I'd put that kind of time into my team/blog. This is the single feature that makes our site stand out more than anything else. Because it seems like each day if it isn't Eric, Sam, James or bojudd one of the readers here is spending their time coming up with another interesting way to evaluate a mets-related issue or even just an hilarious Paint photo.

However, I can't say that they were all bad. In fact, a number of sites had some pretty interesting aspects that we could definitely borrow/learn from here:

Probably the most interesting one came from McCovey Chronicles I think; they do annual awards for readers (i.e. ROY for the best new reader of the season, MVP for the best overall, etc.) based on readers votes.
Similar to Meddler's reports, South Side Sox looks like they run a regular segment once a week wrapping up some of the news and notes from their farm system.
AZ Snakepit utilizes John Sickels very popular 'Crystal Ball' for D-Back players. Other interesting Sickels segments include 'Player Retros' & 'Player Smackdowns'
Brew Crew Ball, while pretty oblivious of the Rec feature, do a kind of cool 'Pictures of the Week' segment.
Reds Reporter had a very interesting writeup of a reader's experience following the team on a road trip including pictures, good baseball stuff and some good non-baseball related stories.
And as much as I love our Sunday Comics, whoever does them for Bleed Cubbies Blue deserves some serious credit.

But basically I'm saying we're pretty lucky here. AA is the perfect mixture of a well informed all around Mets news source that also includes tremendous reader-generated content that a site like MetsBlog just can't compete with. Thanks to excellent moderators and equally excellent readership, AA is definitely one of the better sports blogs and THE best Mets blog out there.

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We're #14! We're #14!

Nah that’s pretty cool. This site is definitely the major reason why I don’t seem to get as much work done during the day. It’s (generally) the island of sanity amongst the craziness inherent in covering any New York sports team.

Well done, everyone. Let’s all keep up the good work.

"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Jun 1, 2009 4:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Nice job with the back-patting

But I’m not sure that the consistency factor stuff truly qualifies as “reader generated statistical analysis”. Taking the standard deviation of a quantity produced elsewhere, giving it another name (consistency factor), and then making conclusions based off consideration of that single number isn’t exactly the most enlightening analysis I’ve ever read — in particular, when you state that your goal was “to prove OP isn’t Mr Consistency”, but then admit to “home cooking” by selectively removing data.

Also, for such a stat-head, nice job with the small sample size of blog responses, used to characterize blog quality. Perhaps you should have created a “response factor” more indicative of the range of responses received…

by fphjr01 on Jun 1, 2009 4:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Nice Job with the trolling

Seriously, why the need to post this comment? I’ve read your posts, your Braves Offense /pitching / defense one was alright with a pretty good take on UZR (I agree with you that it takes a large sample to get rid of the noise) and your payroll one is very similar to something I wrote for the Mets in the offseason, I like when fans are realistic when it comes to payroll and the constraints that come with it. So, you seem like a well thought, rational person, I don’t get the hate.

by Sokojoe on Jun 1, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

To this and those below

My last comment was perhaps a bit snide, but in general I was responding to the subtle (and perhaps unintended) dig at Talking Chop, and the implication that we don’t “get into that kind of thing” (stats), as that is certainly not the case, and was a single post selection out of several. The OP had nothing to say to the response from one of our regulars to the effect of “so who cares, since this doesn’t differentiate between someone who is consistently bad vs. inconsistently good” (and other permutations).

I also stand by my comment that while thorough, the analysis by the OP isn’t necessarily all that instructive. No one below in their knee jerk reactions seemed to refute this with a response other than “nice troll”.

And finally, obviously I’m in agreement that AA is a good place to go, b/c I lurk here all the time. It’s wise to know the ways of one’s enemy, right? And finally, part 2, you guys are a pretty sensitive bunch — what’s wrong with a little intradivisional blog-warfare?

by fphjr01 on Jun 1, 2009 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Eh, just a bit too snide for my taste. Maybe a bit too mean-spirited.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 1, 2009 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

eh

i don’t particularly mind or care, most of the criticisms i took over consistency factor came from people who clearly didn’t get what i was trying to do or just didn’t get standard deviation in general. whether you do or not isn’t really my concern…

as far as the so-called “repackaging” of another stat, OPS seems to have caught on despite the simple addition of OBP and SLG. SB% was a revelation for whomever divided SB from attempts. obviously i could go on. regardless of how simple the mathematics may have been, if the new product tells a story more precisely than previous methods then IMO you’ve got an effective stat.

besides, my intent was not to single out talking chop or any blog community really, just ours. in fact, if i wasn’t really put off by your guys response at all (though you yourself didn’t say anything)…i even got what i considered the best overall response from a braves fan (the office one) but the one i used in this post just illustrated my point well. and we might seem sensitive but i would say that this community is just used to reading quality posts so you can take it however you want.

by robcast23 on Jun 1, 2009 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ouch

Tough crowd. This comment was pretty unnecessary.

by James Kannengieser on Jun 1, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BTW, good work Rob on the Consistency Factor post and all your other work

Ken Davidoff at Newsday (best mainstream NY baseball writer, IMHO) linked to the Consistency Factor post on his blog last week.

by James Kannengieser on Jun 1, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I want to like Davidoff

But he still spouts too much idiocy for me to take him seriously.

Nonetheless, good job Rob!

by All Shook Down on Jun 1, 2009 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You think so?

He’s pretty objective and into stats, which is more than most writers can say. Read his take on the A-Rod situation, it’s excellent. Which mainstream NY writers do you like?

by James Kannengieser on Jun 1, 2009 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

As well as

this take on Wright’s ups and downs

by Mount17 on Jun 2, 2009 1:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Since you are trolling around

I suggest you take a look at James’ Meme post, linked here, for your ease, sir. The second to last entry at the bottom ought to give you an idea of what I (and most here, IMO) would think of your response to Rob.
Nice work, Rob. Keep it up.

by TBlz on Jun 1, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Scotty, is that you???

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 1, 2009 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Schweetness.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 1, 2009 5:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

In all seriousness, this is all true.

In all honestly, the Mets have one of the largest online fan presences among sports teams. Of course, we have to represent the few stat-head ones…

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 1, 2009 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I love

that you specifically referred to this site as “us” and “ours”, because that’s exactly how we see it, too. AA wouldn’t be half of what it is without everyone’s contributions in the comments, FanPosts, and FanShots. So a big hat tip to Rob and everyone else who have helped make us the 14th best sports site on the internets according to some hastily-assembled and nebulously-defined blog list!

by Eric Simon on Jun 1, 2009 5:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

hey, who's better than us?

how bout i answer that question for ya, pal, effing no one, that’s who.

All of the mets fans hope that we will not see the bad news mets ever again.

by kendynamo on Jun 1, 2009 9:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Indeed we are lucky

I can comfortably say this website has facilitated the growth of my baseball understanding more than any other, simply because of the level of discourse, interaction, and the variety of interesting perspectives we all share. Kudos to us all!

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 1, 2009 10:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

I may not agree with everyone all the time (obviously), and sometimes the snark level might be a little high for my liking (though most of the time it’s just right), but overall I have become a better baseball fan since I started reading this site towards the end of last summer. It was a relief finding out that there were Mets fans who thought along the same lines I do.

by cjmulrain on Jun 2, 2009 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

Even forgetting baseball and the Mets, I don’t think I’ve ever found a discussion based website where such a large majority are a combination of well mannered, well meaning, insightful, and articulate. Its very refreshing. And while the snark level may reach critical proportions at times (myself included), I treat it as an acceptable inevitability and a natural defense mechanism of a community of awesomeness surrounded by terabytes upon terabytes of crap.

Disclaimer: that last sentence is in no way meant as a poke at any other specific SBNation website or the SBNation community. I find most sites here to be of a high quality and a cut well above most. The terabytes upon terabytes of crap is a reference to what I have come to expect from the internet, most notably (generally non-SB) discussion based websites and blogs, at large.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 2, 2009 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

E.g., Metsblog

But also the MSM. Marty Noble, Steve Phillips, WHO’S KIDDING WHO???!!?!?!?!?

This is our place not just to get away from that stuff, but to ~~be really, really snarky~~ fight back!

by jasondg on Jun 2, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't take this the wrong way...

I’m from Viva El Birdos, and I enjoyed reading your piece; but I’m not sure how much interest most other blogs are going to have in it. I can see how it appeals to you, as you started this to see whether or not Oliver Perez was actually inconsistent or not, but you shouldn’t expect everyone else to feel the same way about it.

I’m not sure why you had to post the entire piece on every blog; a FanShot would have sufficed. You shouldn’t just post a piece, which admittedly doesn’t intend to make any conclusions of value (and the methodology is even a little sketchy as GameScore isn’t fielding independent, so the results can be taken with a grain of salt), and expect everyone to praise it and have it generate a great load of discussion.

Then making conclusions about the quality of other blogs by their responses to your piece seems very pretentious to me. VEB does has a lot of user generated statistical analysis, if not quite as thourough as yours. I personally have done my share, including a post that had similar intentions as yours; however, because I am a regular there and my post was specifically tailored to the Cardinals, it generated a lot more discussion.

Again, not to dismiss the quality of your peice, but you might have overdone the whole process. You certainly shouldn’t make any conclusions about other blogs based on the responses to your piece.

You are right about AA being an excellent blog, though. I first found out about it when Sam Page linked to my piece, in his open letter to ESPN, and I have spent a lot of time lurking the past couple of weeks. The front page content is particularly great, and I love the criticisms of Jerry Manuel and Steve Phillips. However, you shouldn’t come off sounding so pretentious when comparing it to other blogs.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on Jun 3, 2009 6:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

you're right

this criticism is probably warranted because i can see how this post may come off as pretentious (though its hard not to when singling out my own blog community as the best one)

what i should have made clearer is that after making the post, i lurked for a about a week reading responses, but i wasn’t overjoyed/disappointed whether there was a great deal of discussion or not; its no skin off my nose if other people aren’t interested in the same stuff as me. it was after that when i spent a lot more time just browsing the communities in general, having never visited most if not all of them, that led me to make the aforementioned observations, not the responses.

however, i also didn’t mean to make such a blanket statement because a number of them were quite impressive (off the top of my head that included you guys, bleed cubbie blue, BtB, talking chop and a couple others). i tried to indicate that when i made those bullet points highlighting some of my favorite features but i guess i didn’t articulate it well enough.

and as far as the piece, i probably should have cut the oliver perez stuff because there was plenty of interesting general-type info which was what i thought everyone else might be interested in. but you’re right, i think it did throw off a few people that it kept hitting on perez throughout the article. i posted only because i’m more comfortable with them than fanshots. oh and you’re not the first to mention that about Gsc being fielding-dependent, which is why i’m working on a new method for the AL database. so point(s) well taken and thanks for caring enough to make them.

by robcast23 on Jun 3, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the reply

I’m looking forward to for the AL results (1000 internet dollars Halladay has the lowest CONF), and it’ll be interesting to see how you tackle the fielding aspect of it.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on Jun 3, 2009 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I just thought I would relay this

via BeyondTheBoxscore, via DugoutCentral
Emphasis Sky,

The result is quite remarkable. There is a very strong correlation (with correlation coefficient 0.94) between the ability of one team to beat another and how big its standard deviation is relative to the other team’s, assuming nearly identical RPG allowed. The team with the larger standard deviation (i.e., the team with the more inconsistent defense) tended to win more games.

For each 8% a team’s standard deviation is larger than the other team’s standard deviation the win ratio increases by about 4%. For the teams at the extremes of the graph above, this would correspond to an extra 5 wins or losses per season, if they played all their games against the same team, even though the two teams have the same RPG.
It is a separate question whether consistency is a characteristic of the team, or just a random fluctuation that is not repeatable. The data from 2003 to 2008 has some teams who have a consistently high or low standard deviation, but many have a range of standard deviations, and a larger sample is needed to make any definitive conclusions.

In any event, the next time you wish a pitcher was more consistent, what you really mean is that he should just reduce the number of bad games, since being more consistent without improving your ERA is in fact detrimental to your team.

by Sokojoe on Jun 5, 2009 11:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs