Is Citi Field Robbing Beltran’s Range? - FanGraphs Baseball

"UZR attempts to adjust based on the parks played in, a new park offers little in the way of data for adjustments, so for now we’re still using the park factors from Shea. Obviously upgraded seats and paint isn’t causing Beltran to make more errors, but could it be affecting Beltran’s range?"

over 2 years ago Eric Simon 7 comments 0 recs |

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Comments

R.J. is a good writer

But he doesn’t once mention Beltran’s injury issues. My perception so far is that Beltran has not looked as good defensively as he has in recent years, and I think his leg injuries are partly to blame. A large, but usually silly, gripe of the “anti-stat” crowd is that saber-inclined people should get their heads out of spreadsheets and actually watch a game for a change. R.J. even acknowledges he hasn’t seen much of Beltran this season:

I haven’t been able to observe many Mets games this year

This is a case where just looking at UZR without actually watching Beltran play is not good enough.

by James Kannengieser on Jun 1, 2009 10:16 AM EDT reply actions

Right, and that's exactly what RJ says.

and he ends the article with this question,

For any of the Mets fans out there, have you noticed any difference in Beltran’s defense?

So, RJ understands what you’re saying. Beltran is consistantly banged up and while I can’t find any sources that say when exactly Beltran got the infamous bone bruise on his knee, based on his missing games, I have to say it happened around May 20 or slightly later. This is important because Beltrans UZR has been consistently shitty all season not just after May 20th. I think RJ may be onto something as using Shea’s park factors can’t be right for Beltran and may explain why everyone except for Dan Murphy is getting killed by UZR in the Mets OF.

by Sokojoe on Jun 1, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Hmm

everyone except for Dan Murphy is getting killed by UZR in the Mets OF

Not quite:

Pagan: +3.1
Tatis: +1.6
F!: +0.7
Reed: 0.0
Murphy: -0.9
Church: -2.2
Sheff: -2.7

Considering Sheff’s UZR/150 is an improvement over his past performance, you might even say his defense has actually improved this year. Church is the only one besides Beltran who’s performing poorly, atleast per UZR.

by James Kannengieser on Jun 1, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions

I haven't checked UZR in a while

and I remembered Church getting crushed and Sheff being terrible (predictably,) and was making the statement more in regards to our “starters” (100+ innings at their position) in Beltran, Church, Sheff and Murphy as the sample size for the backups is even smaller than the regs, but still, since both sample sizes are too small for any conclusions, I see your point. Anyways, I think the last comment hid my real point, which was Beltran has been bad this whole year not since the injury, as a Met fan, I want answers because a chink in Voltrons armor is not what the Mets need, UZR being misconfigured as opposed to Beltran losing it, I’ll take that.

by Sokojoe on Jun 1, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions

I didn't really articulate it in my first comment

I think Beltran has been injured all season, not just since May 20th. Not severely injured, but injured to the point that it has visibly impacted his range. I’m not a UZR computer, but since Opening Day I’ve felt he hasn’t been impressive out there. Whether it’s due to injury, him pacing himself, or just losing mobility with age I don’t know. If they could split up his UZR between home and away this season that might be useful.

by James Kannengieser on Jun 1, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Splitting UZR by Month to Month would be cool too

FanGraphs just keeps getting more and more awesome, so I wouldn’t be surprised seeing something like splits for UZR eventually (how useful the sample size issues would make it is another question.) I agree with you, as the sample size increases bad luck is slowly being ruled out and Beltran being hurt seems like the most obvious reason his defense has taken a huge downturn over him just losing it, but, like I said, I could see it being possbile that the park factors aren’t like Shea, since as we know from Sam, Shea wasn’t as deep as the numbers on the walls stated.

by Sokojoe on Jun 1, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions