Stating The Obvious About Wright and Beltran

by James Kannengieser on Jun 10, 2009 12:30 PM EDT in Commentary Comment 29 comments

The topic of the Mets' "core" is an exhausted one around these parts, but I don't care. Writing up the "Off Day WAR" posts has hammered home the true reasons for the 2006-2008 Mets' problems. None of these reasons are the production of our talented center fielder and third baseman (or our talented and disabled shortstop, for that matter). I want to recognize the greatness of David Wright and Carlos Beltran once again. These 2, along with Johan Santana, have almost singlehandedly carried the Mets this season. Forget that Wright struck out against Kiko Calero; forget that Beltran misremembered how to slide a couple times. Instead, please recall the valuable plate appearances each of these superstars have had over the long term. Here are the Fangraphs wins above replacement (WAR) of Wright and Beltran, compared to the WAR of the rest of the Mets' position players. I excluded hitting statistics for pitchers:

Players	WAR
Wright/Beltran	4.8
Rest Of Team	3.4

Unjustified hatred of the Mets' superstars by uninformed fans is a main reason I started writing last year, and these 2 should be commended for their performances this season. I haven't even touched on Santana, whose 2.4 WAR is greater than the rest of the starting rotations' combined 1.1 WAR, (via Statcorner), but I feel even the most Cro-Magnon Mets fan can comprehend Johan's value. That's all, I'll keep it short and simple.

2 recs | Comment 29 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Not to mention

As many people here have pointed out, when Citi has more data to draw from, Beltran’s fielding runs could go back to where we all expect them to be.

by TBlz on Jun 10, 2009 12:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Ha

I was poking around at the fangraphs site for the Mets, when I saw that WTF-Mart should pay the Mets $2.3 million for letting him step on the field. Check is in the mail, Ramon?

by TBlz on Jun 10, 2009 12:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

it would be so awesome

if that’s how baseball salaries really worked.

by cjmulrain on Jun 10, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

heh

you’d get billionaires paying millions of dollars to teams to get to play a game — kind of like those space tourism flights.

by jasondg on Jun 10, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have to disagree with you on one thing

“None of these reasons are the production…or our talented and disabled shortstop, for that matter”

Well, actually, I’d argue that IS part of the problem. Without his production, the crap filler we have is even worse by comparison. But I’m really arguing semantics, I know what you meant and I agree with you fully.

by cjmulrain on Jun 10, 2009 12:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Reyes

I meant he hasn’t been the problem in prior years, which the off day WAR stuff showed. But you’re right – the brief Ramon Martinez era is one I’d like to forget.

by James Kannengieser on Jun 10, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let me ask a question

Can someone explain this:
Team / Batting WAR / Pitching WAR / UZR/150 / Games Back

A / 14.8 / 4.4 / 7.5 / 2
B / 13.2 / 3.4 / -0.2 / 0
C / 8.3 / 8.9 / -6.8 / 0

by TBlz on Jun 10, 2009 1:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Sorry

I meant that Team A is 6 GB and 2 games under .500
Teams B and C are tied and 7 games over.

by TBlz on Jun 10, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm guessing it means Tampa Bay has had some shit luck so far this year?

But I haven’t really paid any attention to the AL East this year so, it’s just a guess.

"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Jun 10, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Looks like it

Actual Record: 29-31
Pythagorean: 34-26
3rd Order: 35.1-24.9 (2nd best in all of baseball)

by James Kannengieser on Jun 10, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

OK, lets do the NL East

bWAR / pWAR / UZR/150 / Standing to .500 / Standings in east
Philles: 12.1 / 1.5 / 3.0 / +10 / 0
Mets: 7.0 / 6.3 / -6.7 / +6 / -2
Atlanta: 4.4 / 9.8 / -2.5 / +1 / -4.5
Florida: 3.2 / 5.3 / -5.9 / -2 / -6

In the same respect as TB getting Un-lucky, are the Mets getting pretty lucky that their crap defense isnt playing a more detrimental role? Somebody smarter than me at this stuff explain these numbers in the context of what we have seen so far in the east.

by TBlz on Jun 10, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Francessa (and plenty of others) fueled gibberish

regarding the “core” drives me crazy.

Even last night when they were talking about Wright and Beltran’s low power numbers Darling finally said, “Well, they are both hitting around .350.” Exactly.

by blains2000 on Jun 10, 2009 1:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

BABIP

What’s Wright’s BABIP? Is he set for a nasty regression the rest of the way?

by DonGately on Jun 10, 2009 2:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

somewhere north of .450 last time i checked

but Wright has always had a Babip well above average, so while regression is likely, the mean is somewhere around .350 for him since he has a 25% line drive rate.

by twon8 on Jun 10, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wright's prOPS

is pegged at .800 right now. He’s got the biggest difference b/w prOPS and OPS in the whole league. (THT link here.) I think this was discussed somewhere on the site recently. prOPS is not a great stat IMO but it’s somewhat useful and suggests that he’s due for some regression. I’m in the camp that feels that his BA/BABIP/OBP are bound to gradually decline but also that his HR/FB and SLG are just as easily bound to rise. His K rate is also still higher than we’d like to see, esp given his lower power numbers. All in all, he probably hasn’t been quite as good as his numbers suggest but he’s still having a terrific season at the plate.

by Zwill on Jun 10, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

All we need are Beltran, Wright, and 8 ghost runners

And we will be set, just like the playground days.

by cuseindahuse on Jun 10, 2009 3:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

defending Beltran

I’ve become so adamant about defending Beltran that I am probably annoying to watch a game with. Every time he tracks down a flyball or gets a hit, I’m telling whoever will listen how awesome he is.

batting helmets. batting titles. obp.

by Durelo on Jun 10, 2009 3:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

same

by cjmulrain on Jun 10, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Same here

An MVP award and I promise I’ll give it a rest.

by TheBigStapler on Jun 10, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Too bad victorino is pretty much an MVP lock for drawing that interference call a month back

by HotChipWillBreakYourLegs on Jun 10, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He could bat .400/.550/.700 and play excellent defense,

but he doesn’t have the winning edge that an MVP type player needs.

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Jun 10, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Same

as the Nat’s radio announcers said: “Beltran doesn’t make many highlight reels because he makes all the extraordinary catches look routine.”
The guy gets to everything. Hits like a beast and steals better than most…I am finding it harder and harder to find anything wrong with this guy.

"We have to find a way to play better, there's no doubt. Overall. I'm not pointing fingers at anybody. Offense, defense, pitching -- we have to find a way to play better. The reality of this is, coming here to Pittsburgh and being swept -- personally, I feel embarrassed." -- Carlos Beltran

by EMSfan9 on Jun 10, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Same here

I think he is a bit unlucky hitting line drives at people, he should be hitting .350 every year. He is just trying to be the true Voltron and just hit the ball through the fielders literally.

Imagine the game recap

Mets beat the Phillies four to two tonight and Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utely are both in stable condition after being admitted to the hospital with baseball sized holes through the chest after trying to catch Beltran’s hits. In other news shane victorino was arrested for beasteality. His psychiatrist diagnosed him with zoophelia.

by Delgado on Jun 10, 2009 4:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

LOL

Congrats on your assimilation into AA, this is one of the greatest comments ever, especially the Dic Torino bestiality part. That’s hilarious, and will lead to a great deal of Microsoft Paint temptation that never comes to fruition for the sake of prudence. Well done.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 10, 2009 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

has there ever...

been a league average player who gets as much love as Victorino? He’s like a Hawaiian David Eckstein.

by DonGately on Jun 10, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

To be fair

Victorino had a pretty stellar year last year. He and Werth really brought the Phillies to another level.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 10, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

True

…but I still the have irrational need to punch him in the face.

by DonGately on Jun 10, 2009 5:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Beltran and Abreu

The grief that Carlos Beltran gets among the dumber segments of the Mets fanbase (the ’FAN crowd) is depressingly similar to the blasting that Bobby Abreu got in Philadelphia most of his time here among our Mongoloids (the WIP crowd). And Beltran is even better, obviously… although Abreu was awfully damned good for several years there.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Jun 11, 2009 5:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

In Abreu's "worst" Phillie season

his OPS was .879. His offense was always stellar, and his defense was quite good as well back then. He was underappreciated because he didn’t break his face crashing into walls. I would’ve killed to have him on the Mets.

by James Kannengieser on Jun 12, 2009 7:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs