Best and Worst Met Trades 1996-2005

by Joe Budd on Jun 11, 2009 12:27 PM EDT in Analysis Comment 54 comments

As the trading deadline creeps closer and the Met blogosphere discusses targets to bolster the injury-riddled starting lineup, I wanted to step back and objectively evaluate how the Mets have done in the trading market in the past. This post is the first in what I plan as a series, each edition addressing a certain period during the last 47 years. This edition looks at the seasons between the end of the 1996 season and the beginning of the 2006 season, bookended by two of the best trades in recent Met history (John Olerud and Carlos Delgado).

The problem, as I quickly learned, was how do I statistically evaluate whether the Mets effectively evaluated players? In the interest of my sanity, I decided to use one main statistic, the wins above replacement (WAR) stats compiled by baseballprojection.com. That being settled, I needed to figure out how I was going to use these numbers. Would I just look at the WAR numbers of the players when they play for the teams directly involved in the trade? That would provide a more accurate impact on the teams involved in the trades, but it wouldn't really describe how the Mets did at evaluating the talent of a player and their remaining production. I couldn't blame the Mets for acquiring players who just didn't perform well in New York but who would prosper elsewhere.

Instead, I added the WAR statistics compiled after the trade by each involved player and subtracted the total WAR on the trader's side from the total WAR on the Met side, leaving the differential which will determine the rankings. To emphasize again, these rankings show how good the players were in their career after the trade, not necessarily whether they were good for the Mets or the teams they were traded to.

When all was said and done, the Mets came out with players with WARs 18.4 LOWER than the players they gave away, generally indicating that the Mets have made poor choices. There is some less bad news, however. The average trade resulted in a WAR differential of -.07, which is awfully close to a break even score of 0.

As you see from the chart, the bulk of the trades have resulted in either a small negative or small positive differential with the occasional disaster and steal thrown in.

Specifically, the John Olerud trade was magnificent, yielding the highest score during this timeframe of +32.8. Not surprisingly, the Mike Piazza deal was close up there for the Mets as well, giving the Mets a differential of +20.3, with most of those additional wins coming in a Met uniform. These rankings also highlight a vastly underrated trade that was made close to the trading deadline of 1999 for pitcher Kenny Rogers. Rogers was outstanding for the Mets to close out the regular season and was crucial in the team's run at the Wild Card.

Best Trades for the Mets from the End of the 1996 Season to the Start of the 2006 Season

Date	Player(s) Sent By the Mets	To	Player(s) Acquired By Mets	WAR Differential
12/20/1996	Robert Person	Blue Jays	John Olerud	32.8
5/22/1998	Geoff Goetz, Preston Wilson, Ed Yarnall	Marlins	Mike Piazza	20.3
12/4/1998	Willie Blair	Tigers	Joe Randa	18.1
7/23/1999	Leo Vasquez, Terrence Long	A's	Kenny Rogers	16.7
3/24/2002	Lou Collier	Expos	Jason Bay, Jimmy Serrano	12.7
12/1/1998	Arnold Gooch, Todd Hundley	Dodgers	Roger Cedeno, Charles Johnson	10.2
8/15/2002	Shawn Estes	Reds	Elvin Andujar, Pedro Feliciano, Raul Gonzalez, Brady Clark	10.1
6/4/1998	Greg McMichael, Dave Mlicki	Dodgers	Brad Clontz, Hideo Nomo	8.4
11/24/2005	Grant Psomas, Mike Jacobs, Yusmeiro Petit	Marlins	Carlos Delgado	8
2/6/1998	Robert Stratton, AJ Burnett, Jesus Sanchez	Marlins	Al Leiter, Ralph Milliard	7.5

Interestingly, the only reason the Todd Hundley trade made it on the list is the value of Charles Johnson. Johnson was a pretty decent catcher for the years after the trade while Hundley's career was short and disappointing. His career contributions and swapping of him for Armando Benitez overcame the lackluster performance of Roger Cedeno (stolen bases included).

There are some players who are going to appear on both the best and worst trades lists, particularly outfielder Jason Bay. The trade to acquire Bay from the Expos by itself was a great trade, just as the trade of Bay to the Padres was a disaster. In the end, these types of trades end as a wash for the Mets; they had to acquire the great talent in order to lose it.

Some trades, however, did not end in a wash. They were just awful. I'm sure that many of these have haunted your dreams, so here's the official casualty list and the damage done.

Worst Trades for the Mets from the End of the 1996 Season to the Start of the 2006 Season

Date	Player(s) Sent by Mets	To	Player(s) Acquired by Mets	WAR Differential
7/28/2000	Pat Gorman, Lesli Brea, Mike Kinkade, Melvin Mora	Orioles	Mike Bordick	-22.6
7/30/2004	Jose Diaz, Scott Kazmir	Devil Rays	Bartolome Fortunato, Victor Zambrano	-18.4
12/10/1998	Joe Randa	Royals	Juan LeBron	-16.7
12/22/1997	Carl Everett	Astros	John Hudek	-16.2
11/25/1996	Paul Byrd, Andy Zwirchitz	Braves	Greg McMichael	-14.1
7/31/1999	Jason Isringhausen, Greg McMichael	A's	Billy Taylor	-12.7
4/3/2002	Gary Matthews	Orioles	John Bale	-8.2
7/31/2002	Josh Reynolds, Jason Bay, Bobby M. Jones	Padres	Jason Middlebrook, Steve Reed	-8
8/31/1997	Pete Harnisch	Brewers	Donny Moore	-8
11/18/2005	Mike Cameron	Padres	Xavier Nady	-7.8

What makes the Melvin Mora trade worse than the numbers show is that Mike Bordick was almost useless as a Met, but then returned to Baltimore and was a relatively productive player (5.6 WAR over the next 3 seasons) while playing alongside Mora.

Overall, the Mets did a mediocre job of evaluating players' remaining potential during this time period. If they had just stood pat, their teams would have had better players and probably won more games. As a general observation, the worst trade list has way more July trades than I would like and none of those players helped the Mets a great deal in their playoff runs. Omar, be careful in the next month; it's all too easy to give away the farm for the flavor of the month.

These are just the highlights. If you are curious about a trade that isn't listed, I've graded them all over on this spreadsheet. Enjoy!

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Comments

Awesome spreadsheet and great post

And I just thought you were a news guru. I still hate the Amos Otis trade the most.

by Sokojoe on Jun 11, 2009 12:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I knew the Mora Trade would be #1

Mora has been a workhorse for the O’s for years. I suppose that in five years the Kasmir trade will take the lead.

I totally forgot that the Mets got Olerud in a trade. That’s awesome.

Grission and Husart - that is either the non-union Mexican equivelant of "Starsky and Hutch" or the key to winning the World Series.

by IanB in MD on Jun 11, 2009 12:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

me too

I thought he was a Free Agent. What a steal that was

by cjmulrain on Jun 11, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess you didn't hear about Victor Zambrano's comeback?

Def gonna swing the balance back towards the Mets.

by Zwill on Jun 11, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I imagine in a few years

the Brian Bannister for Ambiorix Burgos trade will make the “worst” list.

Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!

by cmkeller on Jun 11, 2009 1:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It would be difficult for Bannister to not outperform Burgos at this point

except, of course, in MAR.

by HotChipWillBreakYourLegs on Jun 11, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Murders Above Replacement?

by JoshNY on Jun 11, 2009 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Mike Cameron was/is the man

And Izzy for Billy Taylor – yuck. This post is awesome.

by James Kannengieser on Jun 11, 2009 1:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I do take some solace in the fact

That the Mets got a guy named Juan LeBron in one of these deals. That kind of makes up for it…

Thanks for the compliments!

by Joe Budd on Jun 11, 2009 1:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I still hate

Kenny Rogers for the series ending bases loaded walk.

by mets81 on Jun 11, 2009 1:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Seriously

give him -100 WAR deduction for that wretched moment of my life.

"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Jun 11, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That not a WAR deduction

It is a Husart deduction.

Grission and Husart - that is either the non-union Mexican equivelant of "Starsky and Hutch" or the key to winning the World Series.

by IanB in MD on Jun 11, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It was bad but

They wouldn’t have even made the playoffs without him.

by Joe Budd on Jun 11, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah I know

But its hard for me to disconnect from that moment. I was listening to the game on the radio in a car w/ my college roommate who was a Braves fan. It was horrible.

by mets81 on Jun 11, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Methodology for Multi-Player Trades

Are you adding the WARs of players on each side of the transaction and then comparing the totals? If so, the analysis may be unfairly skewed toward the team getting more players. Example: four players each with a WAR of 1.25 are easier to replace than 1 player with a WAR of five. Although the computation suggests a wash, it is probably more correct to say that the team getting the one player came out ahead.

"Since we became accelerated readers, we never leave the house." - Los Campesinos

by Shomov on Jun 11, 2009 1:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That is true

But, the only other way I could think of doing it would be to average the players involved. That would skew it against the teams receiving the package even though they could get a player like AJ Burnett.

by Joe Budd on Jun 11, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

maybe do both?

by cjmulrain on Jun 11, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also,

The spreadsheet is very nice, good work Joe.

I’m wondering if there is a better stat then WAR to compare players with. The thing is the players are not replacing an average player, they are replacing the player that would have played in that spot on each team, which could be much worse than an average player.

Essentially what I’m saying is trading a player with a 1.5 WAR that is trapped on the bench for a player with a .5 WAR that will start over a guy with -2 WAR may still be a good trade.

That analysis would at best be nearly impossible to do though so good job Joe

by Delgado on Jun 11, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

as you say

that would be pretty impossible to do. probably the easiest way is to look past team situations and only at the players involved.

teams also have made trades that get them to the playoffs but over the course of 10 years work out terribly. flags fly forever though, so it works both ways.

David Eckstein: so gritty they would eat him in the south for breakfast with some butter and sprinkle cheese.

by wrightHOF on Jun 11, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Problem with Averaging

If you get a bunch of bums with a hall of famer, the bums may bring down the average to close to zero. My guess is that the old rule of thumb, that the team getting the best player wins the trade, will tell you in most all cases who got the best of the deal.

"Since we became accelerated readers, we never leave the house." - Los Campesinos

by Shomov on Jun 11, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

McMichael-Worst Combined Trade?

Acquire McMichael = -14.1 WAR differntial
Trade away McMichael 2.5 years later = -12.7 WAR differential
We made a bad trade to acquire the guy, and a bad trade to get rid of him.

by leving on Jun 11, 2009 1:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good eye.

That is ten kinds of terrible.

Grission and Husart - that is either the non-union Mexican equivelant of "Starsky and Hutch" or the key to winning the World Series.

by IanB in MD on Jun 11, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How bizzare

Are those Joe Randa trades? I swear only Steve Phillips could do something like that.

by mets81 on Jun 11, 2009 1:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

this wasnt that bad

11/18/2005 Mike Cameron Padres Xavier Nady -7.8

i dont think this was that bad of a trade. remember cameron had that bone head play when in san diego and there was always hope in nady, it just didnt work out

by jhroac02 on Jun 11, 2009 2:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It was pretty bad

but Cameron was wasted if not in CF. The saving grace was that Nady was used to get Perez which was good in the 06 playoffs, pretty good in 07 and alright in 08.

by Sokojoe on Jun 11, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cameron's been pretty awesome thus far in 2009.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 11, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

also

Carl Everett – pretty sure we traded him for PR reasons, not baseball reasons. Sucks, but you can’t necessarily blame the front office for that.

by cjmulrain on Jun 11, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You forgot the immortal

Ed Yarnall in the Piazza trade…

by cjmulrain on Jun 11, 2009 2:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

My bad

He’s in the spreadsheet. That’s why I’m just the news guru :)

by Joe Budd on Jun 11, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I had no idea we had Joe Randa

even if it was only for a week. He would have probably been a better option than Zeile, huh?

by cjmulrain on Jun 11, 2009 2:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Olerud!

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Jun 11, 2009 2:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It's pretty amazing that that trade actually happened

You win some you lose some I guess

by HotChipWillBreakYourLegs on Jun 11, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did you know he wore a helmet in the field?

There’s a requirement to mention that, just like Tatis’ two grand slams.

by Mount17 on Jun 11, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rickey used to play with a guy

Who did that.

by Joe Budd on Jun 11, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Still one of the funniest quotes I've ever heard.

by Lunkwill Fook on Jun 11, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Olerud is my homie.

batting helmets. batting titles. obp.

by Durelo on Jun 11, 2009 3:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Jason Bay

Bay, on paper, is terrible — but I didn’t even know it, and it happens a lot with minor leaguers. Kazmir hurts the most just because there were no questions about it…and they still traded him, and they could have gotten so much more than Victor freakin Zambrano.

The 2009 Amazin' Avenue: SCREW K-ROD, SIGN FUENTES! Check it out, K-Rod ERA under 1.00, Fuentes over 5.00. CASTILLO MUST GO! Castillo is hitting .300!! DON'T SIGN SHEFFIELD! Sheffield has been a great signing. OMIR WHO? Omir grand slam! OMIR SUCKS! Omir takes Papelbon deep to win. CASTRO OVER OMIR! Omir drives in every Met run, wins game! EPIC FAIL.

by ZaBlanc on Jun 11, 2009 3:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Bay

is a wash because the Mets acquired him in a similarly one-sided (in retrospect) deal.

by Eric Simon on Jun 11, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Too bad we can't trade

with the GM who gave away Jason Bay for Lou Collier.

by mets81 on Jun 11, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

One time my roommate accidentally drafted Victor Zambrano while Carlos was still available. I think this is the only logical explanation for the Kazmir trade, they thought they were getting Carlos.

by Phildo on Jun 11, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

honestly...

I wonder how much we would’ve had to add to Kazmir to get Carlos Zambrano in a trade…

by BlackOps on Jun 11, 2009 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hopefully nothing

since Kazmir was already better than C.Zambrano at that point

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Jun 11, 2009 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

earlier trades

Everyone knows Ryan and Leroy Stanton for Fregosi. 87.5 war to -.6 (mets sold fregosi to rangers). Even Stanton for Fregosi was 3.7 to -.6.

Amos Otis for Joe Foy. 41.9 to 1.5.

by wobatus on Jun 11, 2009 4:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

When was the trade involving Baerga and Kent?

That had to be pretty lopsided.

"Since we became accelerated readers, we never leave the house." - Los Campesinos

by Shomov on Jun 11, 2009 4:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

'96 trade deadline

just misses the cutoff for this list

by cjmulrain on Jun 11, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

One lesson

5 of the 10 worst trades were deadline deals (I’m counting just July/August deals) whereas only 2 of the 10 best were deadline deals. One simple conclusion that should be news to nobody is that perhaps being a “buyer” at the deadline is not a good idea in the long-term.

by Zwill on Jun 11, 2009 4:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Which is what scares me for this year

While I haven’t given up, many things have not worked out in the Mets favor and it may not be their year. So I am worried that Omar will try to “force the issue” with a deadline deal to satisfy the Joel Sherman’s and Francessa’s of the world.

by blains2000 on Jun 11, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This concern has been raised recently

but I think it’s unfounded. People are concerned that Omar is managing by public opinion and paying attention to kneejerk members of the media. I don’t think it’s a major worry. His job is very secure and the quality of the Mets’ minor league system is rapidly improving (ignoring Buffalo’s putridity). There’s no reason to assume that Omar doesn’t see the big picture, although obviously I have doubts about his talent evaluation and overall philosophy. If anything, his silence over the last month has been encouraging in spite of the losing streaks and media calls for upheaval.

by Zwill on Jun 11, 2009 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

LeBron to NY????

How is that bad ;-)

"It's like the old phrase goes.....The balls in your court now Mr.Church, so you take that ball, you dribble it up the court and....................................... get a layup"
- Keith Hernandez

by nrmax88 on Jun 11, 2009 5:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

As bad as some of these trades were, was there ever a worse Mets trade then sending away Dykstra?

by WebBard on Jun 11, 2009 6:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It was before my time

but I think the Seaver and Ryan trades probably are the worst trades in Met history based on the WAR comparison used in this post.

by Zwill on Jun 11, 2009 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dykstra

While it was a bad trade, even at the time, much of the talk about Dykstra’s performance improvements were due to him trying to show the Mets they made a mistake. There is no guarantee he would have had the same career with the Mets without that motivation. A bad trade nonetheless.

by blains2000 on Jun 12, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ryan for fregosi

may have made sense at the time. Fregosi wasn’t awful pre trade. Otis for Foy was pretty bad too, but even Foy had some value at one point.

by wobatus on Jun 11, 2009 9:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

again the whole before my time thing

I was under the impression that Ryan didn’t have the make-up to handle the big city the way Seaver did. The argument I kept hearing from older mets fans was it served his career better that he went elsewhere and the fact we got fregosi was more of an addition by subtraction: getting rid of ryan who may or may not have panned out and getting fregosi at that stage of his career. Am I far off here?

Also, the more I read about Ryan, the more come to realize that he was much more talented, dare I say, Oliver Perez. When he was on, no one was touching him. When he was off, he walked the ball park. You never knew who you were going day in, day out. So, maybe they traded him to avoid this inconsistency? It’s tough looking back at that trade cause he was coming off his 2nd worst year as a starter (26 GS, 152 IP, 86 ERA+), and he has great years in Anaheim and has a HOF career.

Any thoughts? This trade always confused me.

by meigs1414 on Jun 11, 2009 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs