Mets Minor League Roll Call #4: Mystery Men in Savannah
In the wake of a couple of brutal Jerry Manuel Decisions losses, now seems like a good time to hunt for some good feeling in the depths of the Mets Minor League system. At the end, we'll take a closer look at some A-ball players in the Mets farm that we may not know so much about. But first, we'll go with some news and notes from around the circuit.
Buffalo Bisons
I'm not going to update every team in terms of standings, but I would like to note a bit about this club in particular. The Now Fernando-less Bisons have continued to be a complete fustercluck, and one of the worst affiliates in all of baseball. In fact, their current .316 winning percentage is the worst of any team in any full season affiliated league. Typically, I don't care much for minor league wins. But as Sam Page likes to point out, you may not be as bad as you're Triple-A team, but it can really help to have a good one, and the Mets do not. Here are the notables from Buffalo:
- Poor Jonathon Niese. He's getting absolutely killed by being a member of this team. The positional alignments are atrocious. In various box scores I've checked in the last few weeks I've seen Mike Lamb at 2B, Javier Valentin at 3B, and Wily Mo Pena at 1B. In no statistic is this dilemma clearer than Niese's .385 BABIP. Despite the poor results, Niese has maintained many of the things you like to see. Solid K/9 (7.77), BB/9 (2.72), and GB% (57%). The GB% is especially important, because with that kind of defensive infield, it seems likely Niese is probably giving up a ridiculously high rate of hits on groundballs. The good news is, this isn't really a long term concern, and Niese is probably as reasonable a big league option now as he's been all year.
- Even though Fernando Martinez is not a member of this team any longer, this was his most recent minor league stop, and since we don't have much else in Buffalo to talk about, lets take a look at his big league start. Before a tough day against Jamie Moyer today, which Fangraphs has not yet updated, F! had posted a .310 wOBA through 41 big league PAs. Half of his eight hits have been doubles. However, what was really impressive was the fact that he'd whiffed just four times, and walked just as many. His plate discipline numbers are much different than I think anyone could have anticipated. He's swinging at just 43.8% of all the pitches he sees. I actually think this is a little bit low for his current skillset. Its meant a few early walks, but his strength in Triple-A had been his aggressiveness. If he keeps taking lots of pitches, he's going to start getting meatballs early in the count, so if he can adjust, he might really show us something. However, his two strike approach isn't developed enough to deal with lots of deep counts, and if he keeps getting into them, he will likely struggle. I'd like to see him start hacking on some more first or second pitches, as much as it sounds strange to say that. It will be interesting to see which direction he goes in, and if Jerry will even give him a chance.
- With all the disasters in Buffalo, I had been hesitant to even look at what Dillon Gee has been doing. But much to my surprise, he's actually starting to pick it up after a legitimately slow start (the numbers early with Gee didn't indicate such crappy
luckdefense). He's gotten his ERA down to 4.10 now though, his FIP stands at 3.93, and tRA at 4.37. His ratios have also stayed on par with Niese's. He boasts a 7.66 K/9 and 2.92 BB/9. The 39.5 GB% and 8.5% HR/FB indicate it may not be all smooth sailing for Gee moving forward, but he's back on course to becoming a viable option for the back end of a big league rotation sooner than later. - Somehow, Nelson Figueroa has a 2.93 ERA. I don't necessarily buy it, but I'll always root for ya Figgy.
- You know who else has a 2.93 ERA that I don't buy? Eddie Kunz. The 20/15 K/BB in 27.2 IP indicates a lot more difficulty than the ERA does. tRA agrees with me, having him at 5.09. I'm just glad he hasn't hurt the Mets yet.
Binghamton Mets
- Josh Thole has just continued to do what he's done all season. Hit lots of singles, hit lots of doubles, draw lots of walks, and avoid striking out. He's now hitting .357 / .425 / .474 and has a .410 wOBA and a 24/21 BB/K through 226 PAs. He leads the Eastern League in batting and is second in OBP and doubles (18). Forget Josh Thole is awesome, awesomeness is Josh Thole.
- Ruben Tejada has arrived as a legitimate prospect. He's got his line up to .285 / .375 / .389. After an up and down start, he's gone 12 for his last 34 with three doubles, a home run, two walks, and just one punchout. His power ceiling is still low, but this is startlingly impressive for a 19 year old in Double-A, not to mention a shortstop with a good glove.
- Nick Evans finally seems to have hit a groove. He's 12 for his last 41 with five extra base hits and four walks, though the seven strikeouts over that stretch is still somewhat troubling. Still, hopefully he's putting his troubles behind him
- Lucas Duda walks. A lot. His 36 tie him for second in the league. If he could ever find a way to hit for any kind of power at all, he'd be an interesting player, and at 6'4" and 225 lbs, its kind of a mystery as to why he's been so punchless. But, alas, he's slugging just .396 with a .124 ISO. Not acceptable for a first base prospect.
- The arrivals of Brad Holt and Jenrry Mejia have caused a lot of buzz already, so I won't go too deeply into it, but I will note that Holt's having his start skipped due to a rolled ankled he suffered off the field.
- Tobi Stoner has a tidy 3.15 ERA, but just 23 Ks in 40 IP isn't going to cut it as he tries to ascend the system.
- Michael Antonini has an untidy 5.47 ERA, though his 43/17 K/BB in 49.1 IP and 4.45 tRA actually indicate he's been a bit better than Stoner.
St. Lucie Mets
- In previous episodes, we spent lots of time gushing about Reese Havens. Unfortunately, Havens has been in a miserable slump since that time. His season line is down to .228 / .347 / .413. He is just 4 for his last 36 in his last ten games. Still, the slump appears to be at least somewhat superficial. His ISO of .185 is quite good for a middle infield prospect in the FSL, and a .346 wOBA is still above average. Even in the poor 10 game stretch he's currently mired in, he's still managed a 5/5 K/BB, and for the season is at 30/28. All good indications, even if the results aren't there right now.
- Kevin Goldstein recently declared the panic regarding Ike Davis's poor debut season officially over. Davis, famous for taking way too long to hit his first pro homer for a first base prospect, has now gone yard three times in his last seven games, and has his season line up to .285 / .368 / .470. He's hit five homers and has a .379 wOBA through 224 PAs.
- Brant Rustich has been dominant, and could be moving through the system rapidly enough to make the big club this year in the pen, but instead he's being groomed as a starter, which will take time and make him difficult to read. Still, his 1.68 tRA in relief is impressive.
- Nick Carr, also pitching mostly in relief, has also been quite effective, with a 2.82 ERA, 3.70 tRA, and 39 Ks in 38 IP.
- Kirk Niewenhuis, whom I shall henceforth refer to as N!, is turning himself to an interesting prospect. He's hitting .256 / .345 / .440 and has a combination of patience, power, and raw tools that could develop into a solid player as he grows up through the system.
Savannah Sand Gnats
I'll begin with the obligatory mention of the teenage duo, but there's a bigger discussion I want to have about this team. There are a number of players here who honestly, I just don't know all that much about . Scouts from the northeast or even the FSL just haven't had a chance to see them, and so the reports don't always trickle through as cleanly. These are the guys I'd like to have a discussion about, the "Mystery Men". But first, the updates:
- Jefry Marte, who had been struggling mightily all season, is in something of an Evans-esque hot streak. Though his season line is still just .221 / .264 / .332, he is 12 for his last 38 with three extra base hits and four walks, though like Evans, seven strikeouts. He clearly wasn't ready for full season baseball yet this year, but hopefully he's beginning to catch up. He has also committed a stunning 25 errors, so his defensive situation may have to be reassessed.
- Things haven't been much better for Wilmer Flores on the whole. He's hitting just .259 / .311 / .321. The most encouraging note about Flores is that he's whiffed just 28 times in 212 PAs, much better than Marte's 60 in 250.
Okay, now that we've got that out of the way, lets take a look at some of the guys on this squad who don't get quite the same level of attention as the two teenagers or prospects higher up in the system. These are guys who seem intriguing for one reason or another, but who I really only have limited information on. If anyone has any additional and especially up to date information on any of these guys, a note in the comments would be greatly appreciated and duly noted. So, in no particular order, here are my Savannah Mystery Men:
1. Jordany Valdespin - The lone position player appearing on this list, Valdespin is a middle infielder who's putting up quality offensive numbers. He's hitting .322 / .366 / .488 through 164 PAs. His lack of patience and age (21) should both raise eyebrows, and a mysterious early season suspension by the organization is also curious. Throw in the fact that I have no defensive scouting info on this young man, and I'm really just not sure what to make. The information I do have makes him interesting, to say the least, but given just this its hard to know if he's an actual prospect or a guy who's going to come back down to earth hard in the upper levels.
2. Robert Carson - Standing at 6'3, 220 lbs at the ripe age of 20, the lefty Carson uses a solid heater and well developed slider as his primary weapons. He has produced a 3.09 tRA so far this year in Savannah thanks in large part to a 63.4 GB%. He's not missing many bats, but also has solid command, with a 2.58 BB/9. Like Niese, Carson appears to be having troubles with ground ball base hits, as his BABIP is .324 despite a ridiculously low 6.7 LD%. Its difficult to know if Carson will be able to continue to be successful in the upper levels without missing more bats. I have a hunch that the organization is preaching pitching to contact with him, at least for now, and having him worry more about throwing strikes than generating strikeouts. He's one to certainly keep an eye on over the next few years, and there's lots to like here already.
3. Kyle Allen - This is probably my favorite sleeper pick in the organization. Allen, a 24th round pick from 2008 who fell through the cracks due to signability concerns, currently features a fringe-average fastball and extremely well developed curve and changeup for a 19 year old. At 6'3" and 195 lbs, Allen has some room to fill out and add strength. The early season scouting reports on Allen were that if he could find a way to add just a tick more life to his fasball, that he could become a very interesting prospect. So far this year, the results for haven't been great, at least in terms of ERA, which stands at 4.70. He's been bounced between the rotation and the bullpen, but even in his relief outings, he's generally been throwing four or five innings, and never less than three (this is the case for many of the Savannah pitchers). However, he also has a 3.87 FIP, 51.4 GB%, and 8.32 K/9. His BB/9 isn't stellar, at 3.70, but it isn't terrible either. Allen's doing some really encouraging things in Savannah, despite the poor ERA. I'd be very curious to hear an updated report on his fastball.
4. Jeurys Familia - Familia, who is about a year Carson's junior, seems to be on a similar track. He has solid command of an above average fastball to go with a solid 54.1 GB%. Like Carson, however, he's not missing many bats, and unlike Carson, he doesn't seem to have a well developed secondary pitch, and he's not left handed. Still, there are things to like about what he's doing as a 19 year old in Savannah. He's almost like an inverse of Allen, in that he already has a fastball but nothing else, and isn't missing as many bats.
5. Eric Beaulac - A nice sleeper pick from last season, if Familia is the inverse of Allen, then Beaulac is probably the converse. A bit older than many of the other Savannah hurlers at 22, Beaulac has a nice ERA 3.23, but a little digging reveals a more flawed process than his younger counterparts. His GB% is the weakest of the bunch, at 46.1%, and he doesn't have the inflated BABIP the way Carson and Allen seem to. His FIP is a pedestrian 4.04, and and his tRA drops from 4.47 as a starter (32 IP) to 3.02 as a reliever (15 IP). The one advantage Beaulac does have is a 9.99 K/9, however, considering his age, it looks like he may just be making younger hitters swing and miss a lot. He does have an above average fastball and there were some tantalizing reports on his slider last season, but for now, I'm going to go ahead and guess that his future is probably in the bullpen, especially given his age and fairly middling DIPS numbers.
7 recs |
28 comments
Comments
Duda
A fun comparison I like to point out is that Kevin Youkilis slugged .388 as a 23-year-old in high-a ball. This doesn’t necessarily portend a future power surge for Duda, but it’s nevertheless interesting because there are examples of high-walk guys developing power as they move along.
by Eric Simon on Jun 12, 2009 9:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
There’s a part of me that just can’t bring myself to entirely give up hope with Duda, he just walks so darn much and he’s so freakin big. He’s gotta be just a few tweaks away from being a monster, right? Who knows though, this has been going on with him for too long now.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Jun 12, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Question
Tejada is now up to 10 errors this season for the B’Mets. Any idea if this is arm/glove/range related?
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Jun 12, 2009 10:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
His totalzone numbers
are +6 runs above average in little over a season’s sample size, which is encouraging.
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on Jun 12, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very small sample
But I saw him make a throwing error at second base on a ball a lot of second basemen definitely wouldn’t have gotten to. So there’s one.
by TedBerg on Jun 12, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I should add
That my growing prospect-crush on Tejada borders on pedophilia. How many 19 year olds walk like that?
by TedBerg on Jun 12, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
^^^^
reason #546 that Ted Berg is the best journalist covering the Mets.
by cjmulrain on Jun 12, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tejada
He is already an MLB-caliber shortstop defensively, and a plus-2B. Throw in his refound ability to drive the ball, and we could be looking at our next second baseman.
by T Pac on Jun 12, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like Havens.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Jun 12, 2009 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For me
it’s the appeal of an older guy
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on Jun 12, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
If there were more teenagers who appreciated plate discipline and Brian Stokes-oriented humor like you do in the high school I used to work at, I probably would’ve stuck in that career a lot longer. FWIW, though, Tejada looks like he’s 16 years old, tops.
Is that worth anything? I feel like it is. I’m not a scout by any means, but he looks like he’s got a whole lot more developing to do physically. Whether that means he’ll ever hit any more than his current MLEs I don’t know, but he’s not just like some manchild who looks five years older than he’s listed at (paging Edgardo Alfonzo).
by TedBerg on Jun 12, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I can definitely see that
I haven’t seen him play, but from all the pictures I’ve seen, that seems about right. I’m not scout either, but most of what I’ve read seems to suggest that he’ll never develop much power, but the thing is, he should be completely overmatched right now, in a lot of ways it looked like he was early on. The walks were always a great sign, but he was really struggling to make solid contact. He had a high BABIP and a low LD%. My guess is this is somewhat speed related, and that he was getting a solid percentage of infield hits. As long as he maintains his speed, however, and doesn’t develop any really bad habits with his swing, that should be pretty sustainable. He may always be a BABIP outlier. Even now, his GB / LD / FB is 48.5% / 11.8% / 39.6% and his BABIP is .333.
The thing is, after some adjustments, even the LD% is ticking up significantly. He’s not really overmatched anymore, which seems to legitimately be an incredibly fast set of adjustments he’s made. We still have to see if he can sustain it, but as of right now, it seems like whatever pop he does develop is gravy on top of what figures to be a very solid skillbase. I could definitely see a peak something like Luis Castillo’s, maybe even with more arm and versatility defensively and more power as well. When Luis was 19, he was in A-ball hitting .326 / .419 / .362, which considering league context, is very similar to what Tejada’s doing, just with less pop.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Jun 12, 2009 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think Beaulac is getting enough votes!
He’s a strikeout artist with mlb average fastball and slider. His command is slowly improving, too. I don’t think he’ll be anything special but he could be a solid reliever and possibly a back-end starter.
Also, all the 2008 year end prospect lists rank him higher than the others.
by TheBigStapler on Jun 12, 2009 11:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Lotta Familia fans though so far
Interesting. I really expected Carson and Allen to be way ahead of the pack. Maybe they still will be.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Jun 12, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beaulac
He’s apparently been moved into the bullpen for good, at his own request.
by T Pac on Jun 12, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like Carson, if only for the age factor.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Jun 12, 2009 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I agree
Plus handedness and slider help.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Jun 12, 2009 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ike Davis
Went 1 for 3 with 2 walks and another bomb. He still has tons of trouble vs lefties, but he is mashing righties to a tune of .330/.430/.580. I guess he found that wood bat power.
"It's like the old phrase goes.....The balls in your court now Mr.Church, so you take that ball, you dribble it up the court and....................................... get a layup"
- Keith Hernandez
by nrmax88 on Jun 14, 2009 5:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
really heating up
He’s 6th in the league in ops, right behind the recently promoted Yonder Alonso. This is really very encouraging. .290/.376/.498 overall. Havens, Davis and Holt is starting to look like a pretty decent haul for those slots.
by wobatus on Jun 14, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
scouting the sally
http://www.scoutingthesally.com/
A source for a bit of first hand info on the mystery men is Mike Newman. He says he likes Familia just ahead of Carson.
And you could include Elvin Ramirez in the list, as well. He’s a bit behind others mainly because he still struggles with his mechanics after a few years in the system. When he finishes his pitches properly though he has some potential. Likely will wind up another pen arm. But he might be the best arm there, sitting 92-94.
Allen is intriguing for now as a potential #4 SP type. I believe the FB is up to 88-91. He could maybe even be more than that in time if the velocity continues to improve.
Beaulac likely has the best current stuff there, mainly due to the quality of his slider. His age really shouldn’t be too much an issue as he was a college player only drafted last year. I’ve seen comparisons to Parnell. His FB is currently sitting only around 90-91, but with projection there for more. He has touched 95-96 in the past. With improved conditioning he could end up sitting low 90s and maybe end up mid 90s in a bullpen role. But still likely ranks behind Familia and Carson at least.
As for Familia, I think an interesting comp is Braves prospect Zeke Spruill (2008 2nd round), as they are pretty much the same size, same age, same stuff, nearly the same peripherals, with Familia giving up less hits and HR but more walks, and with Spruill having a bit smoother mechanics.
Some injury updates: Gee is on the DL, and maybe could be out for the season (though that is rumor). Havens is out for 6 weeks – and I wonder if he was less than 100% when struggling in June. Moviel should be due back very soon.
For the AA guys, you should probably include Ryan Coultas, who reportedly is looking like a potential #3-4 SP. He’s been reported at 89-92, touching 94-95. And showing a good SL, with the CB and CU also showing potential.
by acerimusdux on Jun 15, 2009 7:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
All awesome
I really like Newman’s site, I’ve been reading it lately. He definitely has a Familia-crush, though apparently he’s not alone. He posts a lot of his Savannah player profiles here as well, some on Sickels site too. I’ve thought of the Parnell comp for Beaulac, just with a bit more slider and less fastball, and especially now that he’s full time pen. Definitely thanks for the updates on those guys though, especially Allen, I was really curious how his fastball was looking.
I knew about Gee and Havens too, but just got so tunnel visioned writing something like this that it all became about the production, especially since neither injury seems too serious (I have not heard anything about Gee suggesting he’s out for the season). Thanks for the update on Moviel though, I was curious about his status.
Coultas is a guy I missed too. A bit older though, no? 27? Not sure if I buy #3-#4 potential given the age, but reliever maybe.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Jun 15, 2009 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Allen update!
Hooray! Kyle Allen had his best outing of the year yesterday, going 6.2 innings and giving up 3 H, 3 BB, 5 K, and retiring 12 of the 24 batters he faced on groundouts. He’s not quite ready for his own fanshots yet, but maybe soon.
I should also note, when I was the FanPost, his statcorner page was not working, but its back now. What this does show, is that he has an even more extreme improvement when pitching in relief than Beaulac. I’m not sure how relevant this is for either one, and either way its probably less so for Allen. If you look at the game logs (Beaulac, Allen) you’ll see that they were actually on parallel five day rotations, essentially splitting the game up, taking turns starting and finishing. Now that Beaulac’s in the pen, those will all be Allen’s starts, of which this was his first turn.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Jun 15, 2009 4:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Continuing thanks
for these updates. Right now, the way the big league club is making life hard for itself (and for us), some hope from lower down is certainly welcome.
by deadspy3 on Jun 16, 2009 3:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the free pub!
I have stuff on all the guys you mentioned except Allen right now who I saw very briefly. Meddler, if you want to do a chat Q&A with me so I can shed some light let me know. Drop me a line at scoutingthesally@comcast.net and leave me your AIM. I’ll track you down and we can talk some of these guys.
by ScoutingTheSally on Jun 16, 2009 8:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I was hoping you'd take notice
I’d been planning to drop you a line actually anyway, so expect to hear from me soon.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Jun 16, 2009 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs






















