Mets Rest-Of-Season WAR Projections

by Sam Page on Jun 12, 2009 9:42 AM EDT Comment 13 comments

I'm experimenting with google docs and the ZiPS Rest-of-season projections that are available on all the player pages on fangraphs. I made this spreadsheet to estimate the rest-of-season WAR for each player. Each position figured to have about 500 PA left in the season and I made my own estimations on how those will be divided. If you think you have a better estimate based on more information, post it below. The RoS hitter WAR came out as 18 and the pitchers 14.3. These projections equate to 87 total wins (I think), but assume a moderate improvement on the awful defense. Incredibly, the Mets have become more top-heavy, so if an injury would fall upon one of Wright, Beltran, and Santana the season would be mostly definitely over. I'm going to make two more of these for the Phillies and Braves so we can monitor the division race as the injury situations evolve.

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If the last two games weren't depressing enough for you

This spreadsheet should do the trick. Throw out Wright, Beltran, Johan and Frank and ooo-eee, this is the pits.

by Eric Simon on Jun 12, 2009 9:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Company firewall

has restricted the image that Sammy posted. I won’t ask anyone to recount the list but what is the funnest fact?

by TheBigStapler on Jun 12, 2009 10:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Pretty grim

WAR:

VOLTRON/Dwright: 10.4
E’rbodyelse: 7.6

YooHoo Satan-jello: 4.6
Big Pelf: 1.9
Frankie: 2.6
E’rbody else: 5.3

by DonGately on Jun 12, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't forget 2.1 for Reyes

by All Shook Down on Jun 12, 2009 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good stuff, I was trying to eyeball the data

on account of being too lazy to make a spreadsheet, so I appericiate the effort. I can’t wait for the Phillies and Braves.

by Sokojoe on Jun 12, 2009 10:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Omir... ouch

St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/

by vivaelpujols on Jun 12, 2009 10:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah that's what I'm sayin

I guess I was a fool for assuming he would save the season.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Jun 12, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't even want to think about 300 more Omir Santos PAs.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 12, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

One question

Sup with John Maine’s only pitching 50 innings the rest of the season? Also, I’m not quite ready to call JJ dead as he might pitch I don’t know, 10 september innings. Lastly, Oliver Perez is Sandy Koufax.

by Sokojoe on Jun 12, 2009 12:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Matz

I just met a summer research student at my college that goes to high school with him. He said he is a real nice kid, without any real arm trouble, sore rotator cuff two years ago which was healed by rest.

He said two eight year-olds rode their bikes to his house to ask for his autograph.

It’s so weird to think that this kid is seventeen and has earned more money than most of us have to this date. That is at least true for me.

by Delgado on Jun 12, 2009 1:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs