Fernando Nieve, Everyone's New Favorite Met

by Sam Page on Jun 20, 2009 7:00 AM EDT in Analysis Comment 13 comments

More photos » by Bill Kostroun - AP

Spikecurve or knucklecurve? Or are you just looking at that face?

"His history wouldn’t have indicated he would be this good." -Jerry Manuel

Jerry makes an ~~fair~~ obvious point, but what exactly is Fernando Nieve's history? Nieve was actually a very projectable prospect in the Astros organization, not long ago, before undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2007. In 2006, Baseball America ranked him the #3 prospect in the Astros system. He pitched in the majors in 2006, demonstrating some shaky control and a serious homer problem. After some really frustrating stints in the minors last year, the Astros gave up on him. This year in Binghamton and Buffalo, Nieve posted good, not great, numbers typical of his former top-prospect days.

As a starter, Nieve throws a 92 mph fastball that touches 94, an 83-86 mph changeup, a slider, and a curveball. From last night's start:

via www.brooksbaseball.net

Nieve's success lies with the speed differential between his fastball and changeup. The curveball doesn't look like an outpitch and the slider is more of a show-me pitch. He used his changeup well last night, getting two strikeouts and a double play ball. The other two strikeouts were on a well placed curves.

If Nieve can keep the ball down and not serve up many homers, he can be a pretty successful swingman/spot starter-type. He won't keep up the strand rate, but Nieve should be a decent option for now. Hopefully, when the Mets get a starter or Wagner back from injury, the Mets will consider Nieve for the bullpen. As a reliever, Nieve can sit in the 94-96 range and not have to go to breaking ball as often. The Mets need more relievers they can rely on to get lefties and righties out. Nieve could turn out to be a good snag for the FO.

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TJ Sugery was in 2007 not 2005

Hey Sam, Nieve had TJ surgery in May of 2007, not in 2005. So he’s just 2 years removed from the surgery. This makes his struggles last year understandable. And it makes you wonder why Ed Wade didn’t wait longer before giving up on him. It often takes a player more than a year to fully recover from TJ surgery.

Ed Wade’s mistake is the Mets’ gain. Nieve has been a really nice pickup by Omar. I’m hoping he can nail down a rotation spot. When Maine comes back, instead of sending Nieve to the pen, maybe send Redding there, depending on how he’s been pitching.

by caseyB on Jun 20, 2009 8:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

you're right

I got some bad info. thanks!

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Jun 20, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fernando Nieve is a big fan of Citi Field

Evan Longoria and Zorilla – not so much.

by James Kannengieser on Jun 20, 2009 8:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Before everyone gets too excited

Let’s remember that over the past few seasons, the Mets have had a history of finding guys who make a few good spot starts only turn back into pumpkins shortly after.

Alay Soler
David Williams
Brian Lawrence
Jorge Sosa
Nelson Figueroa
Claudio Vargas

It’s nice that he’s pitched well, and picked the team up after some tough losses, but let’s see what happens when teams get better scouting reports and video on him.

by Reg Dunlop on Jun 20, 2009 9:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

True

But none of them really had Nieve’s top prospect pedigree, making his case a little more compelling.

And I don’t remember Brian Lawerence having a start that wasn’t held together by fishing wire and glue.

by All Shook Down on Jun 20, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't even remember Brian Lawrence.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 20, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There's nothing wrong with those pitchers as 5th starters

sans-Lawrence

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Jun 20, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He also has a "stuff" edge

over all those guys except maybe Sosa.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 21, 2009 2:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why Nieve straight to the pen?

When a starter returns (Maine or Perez), why not toss Redding from the rotation? This assumes, of course, that both Nieve and Redding continue pitching as they have recently. Then when the other starter comes back move Nieve to the pen. Of course, a roster move would be necessary (cough-Takahashi-cough).

I agree that Nieve would be more effective from the pen than Redding (a once-a-week long man in blowouts). But isn’t it more important to have a starter who gives up 3 runs in 6 innings than one who allows 4 or more and can’t get through 5 innings?

by madisonmetsfan on Jun 20, 2009 10:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Absolutely agree - why not Redding to the pen?

Redding looks good for a couple of innings before collapsing. I think he is more suited to the pen. Nieve looks to have the mentality to eat innings. He gave up a run knowing that it was still a super start last night. Others would have tried to get a double play and ended up giving up the lead.

That looks like someone who has a huge upside as a starter.

by Outside Observer on Jun 20, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fernando Nieve, Everyone's New Favorite Met? As if!

Small sample sizes such as this aren’t enough to sway me, Sam Page. It’s amazing how people can just jump to conclusions after a tiny amount of service time! That’s why I’ll be sticking with my original choice for New Favorite Met- Omir Santos.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 20, 2009 11:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The slider is an out pitch

The slider is above average. That’s not a show me pitch, it’s his best secondary pitch. Using the curve more than he has in the past is helping to keep batters timing off on the slider. The curve has similar break but less velocity.

by acerimusdux on Jun 21, 2009 11:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs