Three things to look for from Johan today

by BallOx on Jun 20, 2009 11:50 AM EDT

The health of Johan Santana is of paramount importance to Mets fans and any hope that they may make the playoffs. We have heard him say he feels fine, other than some blisters. We also would have to believe that any sane manager would absolutely make it his business to know if his ace was hurt and would not risk his entire season (well excuse me, but this is Jerry Manuel). So going into today’s game 2 against the Rays, Mets fans (and this fan of the great art of pitching) are hoping that our fears are put to rest by a return to form of one of the greatest pitchers in the game in the past five years.

Three things will be strong indicators of his health:

Confidence in his stuff: Johan at his best is a strike thrower. It will be interesting to see when he gets ahead in counts (0-2 or 1-2) if he tries to finish batters off instead of "wasting pitches" which is something we have rarely seen from him. An aggressive, confident, efficient performance will be a welcome sight today. One of my major criticisms of him in the past was that he is too efficient and predictably throws strikes on almost every pitch and I have seen him concede most runs when he is actually ahead in the count.

Velocity: Clearly, we need to see his fastball approaching the low to mid 90’s. An average fastball of 91 or higher is what we would like to see today from the great man.

Runs, 3 or less: His current ERA of 3.29 is higher than it should be for a pitcher of his ability and it is higher than his ERA in every season since 2002 (with the exception of 2007 which was 3.33). The ERA needs to come down, starting today. This will be a though ask as the Rays lead the AL in runs scored.

For the sake of great pitching in New York this season lets pray that we see each of the above today. Johan Santana is probably one of the most electric pitchers in the past number of years, and this fan of pitching is praying for a return to form today. ‘Mon the Mets!!

Stats from mlb.com

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Comments

Good stuff Mr. Bollocks

Johan’s velocity and control are definitely things to watch. Let’s hope the rain doesn’t interrupt today’s proceedings too much. ’Mon the Mets indeed.

by James Kannengieser on Jun 20, 2009 12:20 PM EDT reply actions

Mong the Mets?

Mike Nichols?

by All Shook Down on Jun 20, 2009 2:34 PM EDT reply actions

Velocity

Johan hasn’t had an average FB velocity of 93 mph in a single game as a Met. I’m just hoping he stays above 90 mph.

by T Pac on Jun 20, 2009 2:35 PM EDT reply actions

i agree somewhat

Johan always had confidence in his abilities and his pitches, I think that is the wrong thing to say. I think he just hasn’t been able to put the ball where he wants it every pitch lately like he always has been able to do. It’s just a command issue of late, not a confidence thing…my opinion.
And his ERA doesn’t tell the full story. His ERA was 2.39 before his infamous start last weekend. That was a very freak occurance that no one ever expects from him. His ERA was lifted a full point because of that. I don’t think you can look at his ERA too much as a measuring stick for where he is because it will only go down from there because again, it was a freak occurance for him to implode like that.

by dave the rave on Jun 20, 2009 7:43 PM EDT reply actions

it was a freak occurrence

but over the 5 starts prior to the 9 run explosion his ERA was over 4.50, so it’s not like he had been typical Johan even before that.

by cjmulrain on Jun 20, 2009 8:04 PM EDT up reply actions

lets not make it seem like hes having a bad year

okay he is 8-5 with a 3.22 ERA. He could easily be 12-2 with some run support for the sake of arguement. Three of his losses he lost by fewer than a two run margin and the no decision he easily could’ve won if Putz didn’t blow it in the 8th.
Now the 5 starts you’re referring to he pitched to a 4.63 ERA but he still went 4-1. Regardless of the ERA it’s about winning games and with one exception he will always keep his team in the game when he is on the mound and that’s all that matters. I think he’s so good everyone freaks out if he doesn’t pitch his seven innings of shut out 10 K ball. He’s human it’s not always going to happen. But I think he’s fine, his numbers don’t tell the whole story.

by dave the rave on Jun 21, 2009 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm not saying he has to pitch 10 K shutouts every time out

but if he pitches to a 4.63 ERA the rest of the season, the Mets can forget about the playoffs. His overall numbers look good because he was unbelievably awesome over the first month and a half of the year, but over the past month he has definitely been subpar. He pitched well today, which is encouraging.

I want it to be known that I love Johan and like watching him pitch more than anyone I’ve ever seen on the Mets, which is why the past month has worried me a bit. He’s just seemed a bit off

by cjmulrain on Jun 21, 2009 2:04 AM EDT up reply actions

What Dave said

Good points Dave, I do take your point about over-analysing the ERA. I guess for the rest of the season we are hoping he can limit the runs conceded in games to 3 or less – anything more will probably be considered a “bad” outing. You are definitely right – lets not go nuts over analysing the ERA. Even before the “implosion” last week I was at the Phillies game where he gave up 4 runs and that was not considered one of his best games.

I think we can agree that today was a very good performance and this Johan fan is satisfied he’s not injured.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNKw3yJylrM

by BallOx on Jun 21, 2009 12:48 AM EDT reply actions

I'd like to see

more Ks and fewer walks. But it was a step up.

BTW, what is it with mets and walking the opposing pitcher? I likely am just recalling a few specific instances, but I think johan has done it 3 times I can recall. And James Shields bats like 8 times a year max, no?

by wobatus on Jun 22, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions